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It is not enough to know if enough Republicans will support a Democratic resolution to end the president 's national emergency declaration to build a wall along the US border with Mexico. It's a question of how much.
Bottom line: The ultimate efforts to find a way to dispel the concerns of Senate Republicans collapsed on Wednesday and the resolution will be passed. Trump will be forced to veto the resolution – the first veto of his presidency.
The largest image: For the second time in two days, Republican senators will join the Democrats in supporting a move the White House opposes – a first Wednesday to end military support for Saudi Arabia during the civil war in Yemen, followed by Thursday's vote to end the national emergency.
There are points in common here, ranging from executive points of view to an administration that has repeatedly refused – or could not – provide the information explicitly requested by the GOP senators when taking their decision on these votes.
Experienced Republicans view voting as a kind of major disagreement – and they are not mistaken. After all, the Senate Republicans, many of whom were initially suspicious, are now totally behind the president, especially on the border wall, and on the general goals of the administration in border security.
"It's not as if that meant a big break from the president," said a GOP senator to CNN. "But this is an example, perhaps we have avoided in recent years, that we can push back and send a message when we need it."
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In the tweets, Trump continued to vote as a binary choice, between his proposals for border security and support for Democrats.
Administration officials were still in discussions with senators and staff all day Wednesday. But Trump himself put an end to any hope of ending the resolution by calling on Republican Senator Mike Lee during a GOP in-camera lunch in the Senate and stating that he would not support his proposal to limit future national emergency declarations at 30 days.
Later in the day, at a meeting with GOP trade senators, Trump returned to the resolution vote and tried to pressure skeptical senators, according to Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, who was present.
But Alexander made it clear that this had been done in a way that he "liked".
"He would like us to vote against the amendment," said Alexander on his return from the White House. "But he understands and respects the fact that senators can have different opinions."
When CNN mentioned Alexander's comments to an assistant knowing the meeting, he stated that the senator's assessment was consistent with what had been said to him, but she said, "We'll see how long this understanding and respect will remain after the senators vote against him this afternoon. "
Timing
Nothing is official until Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announces it on the ground (but assistants from both parties say the target is in the early afternoon – sometime after lunch).
A technical addendum on jet fumes: This will be the last vote before a Congress suspension of one week. Senators will not want to prolong this process for longer than necessary.
Who to watch
As is often the case with votes like this, many senators have kept the secret about how they will vote. As explained by a senior GOP assistant, "There is no reason to put a target on your back while the talks are going on and that there is still a chance to get out of the".
Well, that shot is officially gone.
So, as it is also the case with votes like this, expect an avalanche of statements and / or tweets shortly before the final vote. Nothing is official until a senator throws a thumbs up. As Thursday's vote is on a resolution of disapproval, Senators voting against Trump will vote "yes" for the resolution. Here is an overview of who to watch, based on conversations with GOP Senators and Assistants:
Yes confirmed votes
Senator Susan Collins
Senator Lisa Murkowski
Senator Mike Lee
Senator Rand Paul
Senator Thom Tillis * (note: Tillis was somewhat wary about his vote in recent days while he was working on a compromise with the administration)
Probably yes votes
Senator Lamar Alexander
Senator Mitt Romney
Possible Votes YES
Senator Ted Cruz
Senator Pat Toomey
Senator Jerry Moran
Keep an eye on
Senator Roy Blunt
Senator Rob Portman
Senator Ben Sasse
Senator Roger Wicker
CORRECTION: The text has been corrected to indicate that senators opposed to President Donald Trump 's national emergency declaration will vote "yes" during Thursday' s disapproval resolution.
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