Republicans are almost none of the places where most immigrants live

Democrats are opposed to a "transformational coalition" rivaling groups – young adults, minorities, single people, secular voters, and college-educated whites, mostly concentrated in the major metropolitan areas – who are most at risk. comfortable with change.

"It is clear that we are moving in the direction where there is a party for older white Americans and another for people of color and immigrants," said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican representative of the United States. who was defeated in a very diverse neighborhood of Miami area-neighborhood. "And it's very dangerous, it divides our society in a dangerous way, it paralyzes our political system."

The result is that virtually no Republican, at any level, now represents urban constituencies with large immigrant populations that Trump has threatened to reinforce the application of the ICE law or belittled with its calls for four liberal House Democrat women, three of whom were born in the United States. "returns" from where they came before criticizing America.

"I do not see any serious plan or strategy for developing the party in the cities of the United States," said Curbelo, one of the few Republicans in the House to occupy an important place for immigrant and non-immigrant voters. white. "And I find that efforts to develop the party in the Hispanic community are very limited, which was a major priority during the George W. Bush years and even after the Obama presidency. . "

Instead, Curbelo said Trump "uses cities to intensify the culture war and shake its base."

Trump's victory in 2016, and his constant support in surveys of about 40 to 45% of the population, shows that there is an important audience for his hard message on immigration and change population in the broad sense. But there is also a clear cost. Indeed, the bruised nationalism of Trump, infused with race, forces the GOP to negotiate support between younger and older voters; secular voters for the most conservative Christians, especially evangelical Christians; various voters for whites; white-collar white for white-collar workers; and metropolitan areas for non-metropolitan areas.

Since the emergence of Trump, Republicans have consolidated their control over small towns, suburbs and rural areas. But this has resulted in significant losses for the GOP in metropolitan areas, even in the Red States, like Texas and Georgia.

The trade that Trump imposed on the GOP was apparent in 2016 and has intensified tremendously in 2018.

Since undocumented immigrants tend mainly to communities made up of many immigrant communities, the places most threatened by the threat imposed by Trump to strengthen law enforcement are almost all those who already have manifested hostility towards him and the party that he transforms in his image.

The non-partisan Migration Policy Institute estimates that there are at least 70,000 undocumented immigrants in 34 US counties; cumulatively, these counties represent about 5.6 million undocumented immigrants, about half of the estimated total in the United States. (The 10 largest counties alone, all major urban centers, account for nearly one-third of the total undocumented population). In 2016, Trump lost 31 of those 34 counties and by 2018 two of those he was wearing – Maricopa, about Phoenix Arizona and Tarrant, centered on Fort Worth, Texas – stood out for Democrats in the Senate.

Trump and some of his supporters falsely claimed that electoral fraud allowed undocumented immigrants to vote in these large urban centers that contributed to its losses in some states. However, it is fair to say that the acceptance of an undocumented population in these communities is part of the structure of attitudes that made them so hostile to Trump.

In an interview, Providence, Rhode Island, Mayor Jorge Elorza, co-chair of the Task Force on Immigration Reform at the US Mayors 'Conference, has seized the ferocity of mayors' resistance to the threats of Attacks by the CIE. He called them "blatant racists" and said that Trump had revealed their political intent with his tweets telegraphing the current operation. "If it was to implement a public policy, you would say nothing to those people that these raids and raids will occur," Elorza said. "The goal … is to stir up fear in the immigrant community in general and to do so in a way that feeds the political base of red meat."

Elorza said almost all mayors felt that such repressive tactics were detrimental to public security, as they hindered relations between immigrant communities and law enforcement. "We want anyone who has witnessed (of a crime) to feel as comfortable as possible to talk to the police," said Elorza, the son of undocumented immigrants from Guatemala, born in the United States. "If people are afraid to talk to the police, they are less likely to talk, even if they are witnesses."

Muzaffar Chishti, director of the office of the Migration Policy Institute in New York, said in an interview that Trump's uncompromising approach was counterproductive even for his stated goal of increasing evictions. The reason, says Chishti, is that, although many cities have been angered by the expulsion actions of former President Barack Obama, they have been completely insensitive to the brutal immigration policy and Trump's language (including his attempts to cut off federal police assistance to so-called sanctuary cities that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities). And city cooperation, says Chishti, is essential to eliminating a large number of undocumented immigrants, as three quarters of those who are eventually deported are initially arrested not on immigration charges, but to deport them. Other offenses then found by ICE once they enter the criminal justice system.

"If you want a lot (of evictions), you have to count … in states and localities, because our criminal justice system is made up of states and local communities, not by federal authorities. ", did he declare. "Therefore, you need their cooperation, and if they do not cooperate, you will not get big numbers."

Within municipal governments, it is generally accepted that Trump's immigration program is essentially an effort of a Republican coalition centered primarily on areas of America that have the fewest immigrants to impose their values ​​and prejudices on the regions of America that have the most.

Trump "was able to convince people that their way of life was mainly influenced by the presence of undocumented immigrants in this country and I think this message resonates more than anywhere else in communities that are not in touch close with them, "said Elorza. "I live personally in a community where I know for a fact that there are undocumented immigrants in the area, I see them, and if you get to know them you will see that they are not a threat." For you, when you are not exposed to it, you are more likely to buy that (negative) story because you have the President of the United States telling you that it is. "

In contrast, Curbelo says he sees signs that too many Democrats are giving up hope of making connections in less diverse and less urban areas, usually more skeptical towards immigrants. "Obviously, Republicans are not doing enough to change (the gap) and the Democrats either," he said. "Some Democrats say we do not want a white presidential candidate, it's just as outlandish and outrageous – the bases of each party are all too appealing."

Trump's relentlessly divisive program and language – as well as the bitterly democratic response he provoked – seem guaranteed, in the 2020 election, to widen the divide between a diverse America, urban, immigrant-friendly, where the opposition to the president is centered, and its fortresses in a predominantly white, blue-collar, strongly Christian and non-urban America.

The inflammatory racist conflicts of recent days may have provided the best insight into what is being prepared regarding places that represent what America is facing against those who reflect this. what was next year's epic struggle for control of the leadership of the nation. .