Researchers are about to predict when you are going to die

A team of researchers led by data researchers in the Netherlands has developed the famous 14 based on data from 44,168 people, aged 18 to 109 years. The data included death records and measurements of 226 different substances in the blood. Of the 44,168 people, 5,512 died in follow-up periods of nearly 17 years.

The researchers then put their death panel to the test. They used the 14 blood measurements to try to predict deaths in a cohort of 7,603 Finns surveyed in 1997. Of these Finns, 1,213 died during follow-up. Together, the 14 blood measurements predicted with an accuracy of 83% the deaths that occurred in the last five and ten years. Precision, however, dropped to about 72% when predicting deaths among people over 60 years of age.

The range of apparent markers of misfortune may not be totally surprising. Some are already known to report deadly diseases, such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes, all major causes of death in Europe and the United States. The culprits include blood sugar; factors related to "bad" cholesterol; acetyl glycoproteins and polyunsaturated fatty acids, related to inflammation; and albumin, which may indicate kidney and liver problems. However, some authors, such as acetoacetate, are not so clearly linked to mortality and require further research.