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Illinois and Iowa meet for a crucial Big Ten semi-final that could decide who gets the No.1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Iowa used a strong second-half performance to beat Wisconsin for the third time this season. The Hawkeyes are hot at the right time, winning eight of their last nine games heading to Saturday. They lost to Illinois 80-75 in the only regular-season game, so the Hawks will be ready for revenge this time around.
Illinois beat Rutgers in the quarterfinals and are currently the hottest team in the country. The Illini have won 12 of their last 13 games, including road wins for Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin to end the season. Illinois are currently slated to be a seed in the NCAA tournament, but a bad loss to Iowa could potentially drop Brad Underwood’s team to two seeds.
When Iowa Hlike the ball
It’s no surprise that the Hawkeyes’ offense revolves around college basketball’s best big man, Luka Garza. The senior is averaging 23.8 points per game and was down 24 on 10 of 15 shots Friday night against Wisconsin.
However, taking on the Big Ten’s tallest man at 7ft, 285 pounds Kofi Cockburn will be a challenge.
The Hawks can beat teams from anywhere on the pitch, however, as they lead the Big Ten in efficiency, averaging 1.15 points per possession. They can bombard the 3 with the best of them, averaging over 40% during the conference. Iowa also dominated opponents down, making 62.3% of their shots to the rim, according to Hoop-Math.
He shot the ball pretty well against Illinois in January, hitting 43 percent from the field and 10 of 25 from beyond the arc. That biggest difference in this game was that Iowa couldn’t reach the free throw line, shooting only six free throws for the entire game.
Illinois has been one of the best defensive teams in college basketball, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. He defends painting at an elite level, allowing only 45.1% of the 2 point range.
So if the Hawks are to win this game, they’ll have to do it from 2 points and the free throw line.
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois have regained their full strength in their last two games and averaged over 1.15 points per possession in those games. It certainly helps when you have two of the country’s best players on the same team, Ayo Dosunmu and Cockburn, who combine for 38.2 points per game.
Much like Iowa, Illinois can also tear apart opponents from anywhere on the court. The Illini claims the No.1 offense inside the arc, averaging over 54% and 67.3% on rim shot attempts, per Hoop-Math.
Illinois is also shooting 38% on a 3-point range, which ranks among the top 25 in college basketball. He torched Iowa deep in their January meeting, shooting 43% from deep, so Iowa is likely to have trouble on the defensive again.
The Hawkeyes have really improved defensively in the second half of the season, as they have allowed their opponents to score over 70 points just twice in their last nine games.
Really, the way to beat the Iowa defense is from behind the arc, which Illinois is well equipped to do.
Bet analysis and selection
Even though Illinois looked fantastic over the past month, I think the Hawkeyes will get revenge for Champaign’s loss. Iowa has improved greatly since these two teams met and should be able to control the Illinois attack.
I only have Illinois projected as a -1.76 favorite, so I think there is some value on the Hawkeyes at +4.
Take: Iowa +4 (up to +3).
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