Rising COVID-19 cases in US sparks fear of fourth wave

If you thought the pandemic was over in the United States, think again. After nearly three months of steady decline, the number of new daily COVID-19 cases across the country is increasing. In several states, led by Michigan, the number of people in hospitals is also increasing.

That leaves the United States at a critical time, experts warn. Even as vaccine rollout accelerates, the reopening of businesses, including bars and restaurants in many states, increased travel, widespread feelings of COVID fatigue, as well as the spread of more transmissible variants and deadly, mean the United States could be at the start of a fourth coronavirus outbreak.

“I’m going to take a break here, I’m going to lose the script, and I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,” CDC director Rochelle Walensky said, visibly shaken, during a White. Home COVID-19 briefing Monday. “We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential from where we are at, and so much to hope for, but right now I’m scared.”

Health officials on Monday urged Americans to continue getting vaccinated, wearing masks, social distancing and following CDC travel guidelines to avoid a fourth outbreak.

“We really need to stick to public health measures as more and more people – 2-3 million people and more – are vaccinated every day,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Allergy Institute. and infectious diseases. “It will be a race between the vaccine and what happens with the dynamics of the epidemic. We can earn that by staying a little longer. “

COVID-19 cases are on the rise again nationwide.

After a sharp drop in new COVID-19 cases since the start of January, daily new cases across the country started to level off and then climb last week. Another key indicator of a new outbreak, the percentage of positive daily COVID-19 tests, has been increasing for about three weeks.

Increases in the number of people in hospital and reported COVID-19 deaths on a daily basis tend to lag behind increases in cases by a few weeks.

“When we see this rise in cases, what we’ve seen before is that things really do tend to rocket and rocket,” Walensky said. “We know that cases can sometimes be a week or two behind on the behavior that leads to these cases – the mix that leads to these cases – we know that travel is on the rise, and I’m just worried we’re seeing them. surges that we have seen. summer and again winter. “

Cases are increasing in states of the United States.

The increase in new cases started in Michigan and then spread across the Midwest and Northeast. Today, cases are increasing in states from Hawaii to Florida – where the spring break holiday has alarmed local health officials and led to clashes with police. “A huge number of people are coming our way, and many of them, if not most, seem to have forgotten that there is a pandemic,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber told USA Today on the 15th. March.

“I’m really worried about spring break activity in Florida,” George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UCSF, told BuzzFeed News. “We will soon know if these people have brought cases home with them. If we suddenly see an outbreak in Alabama in a college town, we might say, ‘Yeah, that was the problem.’ “

More dangerous coronavirus variants may be partly responsible for the increase in cases. Data from the CDC shows Florida and Michigan leading the country in confirmed cases of the more transmissible and fatal variant B.1.1.7 coronavirus, first seen in the UK. But these data provide a limited view of the spread of variants in the United States, as genetic surveillance of these variants is still not widespread.

“We know that about 26% of all viruses sequenced are now the B.1.1.7 variant,” Walensky said. “And that may be one of the reasons, if people don’t do things – hide and distance themselves to protect themselves – this variant is probably less forgiving and more infections will occur.”

Health officials have also pointed out that easing restrictions in many states is a major problem.

“If we fully open up now, it’s premature, given the level of infection described by Dr. Walensky,” Fauci said. “We’re really doing things prematurely right now in terms of opening up.”

Walensky said she would meet with governors on Tuesday to urge them to “refrain from opening up too quickly.”

Michigan has seen an alarming spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

The trends in Michigan give an alarming view of the direction the entire nation could take. Experts hope the increase in cases will not be followed by as large an increase in hospitalizations and deaths as in previous outbreaks, as those infected now are mostly younger people who have yet to be vaccinated.

“The count of cases will become less important because the capacity of the hospital can no longer be threatened,” Amesh Adalja, pandemic preparedness specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told BuzzFeed News.

But in Michigan, the number of people in hospital is now growing almost as strongly as it was in the fall, and the number of deaths reported daily also appears to be increasing.

The coronavirus is also on the rise again in Europe, providing another warning to the United States. In France, Germany and Italy, the daily number of new cases has risen sharply in recent weeks – although Italy has managed to slow its surge after introducing new strict controls, including closing stores, d ‘schools and restaurants.

A significant advantage for the United States, however, is that they have so far fully vaccinated 15.5% of their population, compared to 4.9% in Italy, 4.6% in Germany and only 3.9%. in France. This is largely because of vaccine supply issues in Europe, leading to a dispute with the UK, which obtained AstraZeneca vaccine doses earlier than the European Union.

But relying solely on vaccines to stem the increase in cases may not be enough, especially because younger people are not yet eligible for vaccination in many states unless they have health concerns. or occupations that put them at greater risk.

“We are not helpless – we can change this trajectory of the pandemic,” Walensky said during the White House press briefing. “But we will all need to re-commit to following public health prevention strategies consistently as we work to get the American public vaccinated.”