Risk of COVID death in hospital doubles amid Los Angeles surge



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The likelihood that a person hospitalized with COVID-19 will die in Los Angeles County has doubled in recent months.

That’s according to an analysis released by the county’s health services department on Wednesday, which found that the likelihood of a person dying from the disease while in hospital had increased from about 1 in 8 in September and October to about 1. out of 4 since early November.

These increased odds coincide with a devastating spike in the death toll in LA County. In early November, when the current coronavirus outbreak began, there were on average less than 20 COVID-19 deaths per day. But in the week-long period that ended Wednesday, around 206 deaths were reported each day, according to data compiled by The Times.

More than 4,000 of LA County’s 14,000 COVID-19 deaths have been reported since New Year’s Day. The county accounts for about 41% of the 35,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in California, although it is home to only a quarter of the state’s population.

Dr Roger Lewis, director of COVID-19 hospital demand modeling for the LA County Department of Health Services, said the increased risk of dying is a result of hospital overcrowding that only patients with them more sick are admitted.

Since patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are now uniformly more seriously ill, a higher percentage of them are more likely to die.

“During the current outbreak, when hospitals are severely overcrowded… clinicians are extremely judicious in their decisions to hospitalize patients,” Lewis said.

“Current data suggests that only patients who are sick enough and clearly require acute hospitalization are admitted. And it is likely that more of the patients will be discharged home with instructions to return to hospital if their illness worsens, ”Lewis said.

As state data shows 7,073 coronavirus-positive patients were hospitalized across the county on Wednesday – down more than 12% from the record of 8,098 set on January 5 – the number of COVID patients requiring treatment intensive care remained relatively stable over the same period, falling to 1,687 on Wednesday, down 2.5% from the high of 1731 set on Jan.8.

When hospitals are less in crisis, they are more likely to admit people who are about to need hospitalization.

However, as the demand for resources and beds has increased, the needs of COVID-19 patients admitted to LA County have increased.

Here’s a look at how the makeup of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the county changed from September and October, when the pandemic was less overwhelming, to the peak period that began in November.

Between September 4 and November 3, the average resources needed for each COVID-19 patient were:

• Days of hospitalization: 6.93
• Days in intensive care unit: 2.09
• Days of mechanical ventilation: 1.16

As of November 3, the average resources required for each COVID-19 patient were:

• Days of hospitalization: 9.49
• Days in intensive care: 2.38
• Days of mechanical ventilation: 1.89

The actual care that a patient requires can vary widely. For example, some patients may not require intensive care unit care, while others may spend weeks on ventilators, having difficulty breathing and usually sedated, with a tube inserted through the mouth into the trachea and caught. to a machine that breathes for them.

Although the county has seen some improvement in its overall number of hospitals, Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer stressed that the current figure remains extremely – and unsustainable – high.

“This is still a huge number of COVID patients, and our hospitals are inundated with people suffering from serious health issues from COVID-19,” she said in a briefing Wednesday.

Daily deaths remain extraordinarily high in LA County, leading the National Guard to be called in to help morgues in overcrowded hospitals by taking bodies to the county coroner’s office for storage until funeral homes and mortuaries can deal with the backlog. Local air quality officials have suspended monthly limits on the number of incinerations to avoid a public health crisis.

The current death rate is “more than double that of pre-pandemic years, leading to hospitals, funeral homes and crematoriums exceeding capacity, without the capacity to deal with the backlog,” South Coast Air said on Sunday. Quality Management District.

The air quality agency said that on Friday more than 2,700 bodies were in storage in hospitals and coroner’s offices.

In mid-April, when the pandemic was in its early stages, the daily death toll from COVID-19 in LA County was around 50, on average. The current wave has been significantly worse, with the average daily death toll peaking at 241 per day for the seven-day period that ended on January 14.

While the number of daily deaths has declined, the rate is still significantly higher than at any time during the pandemic. LA County local health officials reported 294 deaths from COVID-19 on Wednesday, one of the highest single-day counts in the entire pandemic. The record number of deaths reported in a single day is 318, on January 8 and January 12.

“COVID-19 continues to take far too many lives – young and old – and so many families and friends face difficult times without loved ones,” Ferrer said.

LA County, by far the most populous in the country, is both the engine and the reflection of the larger trends happening across the state.

California as a whole has also seen declines in its hospital admissions – prompting cautious optimism, officials say, but no celebration yet.

On Wednesday, the number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized statewide fell to 19,537, the lowest level since December 26. Of that number, 4,670 patients are in intensive care units, the least in two weeks.

“These are beacons of hope that shine,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California secretary of health and human services this week.

But the state, like LA County, is seeing a high number of deaths every day. California has recorded an average of 485 daily deaths over the past week, a 27% increase from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.

In the past 14 days, California has reported 17.7 deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 population, the 12th highest rate of any state, according to Times data. Arizona recorded the highest rate during this period, 28.1.

Times editor Laura J. Nelson contributed to this report.



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