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left in the Ukrainian army very weakened after elite units (especially in the navy) deserted to pass either on the side of the Russians or the two major separatist republics of the east of the country. # 39; Ukraine.
As for the illegal occupation of Crimea, the Russians are applying a series of procedures that have proved their effectiveness in the near future. All, absolutely all, based on the absolute conviction that international or regional organizations as a whole, permanently blocked in all the rules of the democratic states, will always be caught off guard by any brutal and rapid act by which they occupy a territory. attaches to the motherland. Of course, in the case of Crimea, now in the case of the very serious military incident in the sea of Azov, the international political world has stopped and has been the subject of many discussions even sanctions have been imposed on Russia. now in force. But beyond that, would it have been necessary to cross the critical threshold, the beginning of a military conflict, to defend the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine before a proven aggressor?
To be serious, nobody seriously thought that there could be, at least theoretically, such a possibility equivalent to the outbreak of the Third World War.
What could be done while the stakes of the recent events take full control of the Russians of the Sea of Azov, whom he considers again as "fat domestic" and part of the territory of the Russian Federation blocking the seaside L & # 39; Ukrainian and perhaps for a long time has it closed any potentially hazardous area of ?? use of the Kerch Strait?
Something could be done, said Westerners, initially angry with themselves and their lack of power to anticipate the events that led to the invasion of Crimea. And that's how we came to both solutions that we know. One political, another politico-military. The last of them, the strengthening of the Eastern flank of NATO is the only one that is functional and poses to the Russians a real problem in terms of clear indication of the territory of the Alliance and the should, therefore, normally put an end to any conflict scenario. But, as NATO leaders always say, this commitment is taken in a defensive spirit and aims at strengthening the rather weak capabilities of the states in the contact zone. And it was decided in the hope that the Eastern space, especially Ukraine, would be appeased by the success that the Minsk Agreement should apply on the ground now, unfortunately, a case belonging to the past, and ignored by none of the belligerents. On the contrary, during this period, the situation in Ukraine has deteriorated considerably in that the unity of its state has been broken and that in the part of the territory left undisturbed. control of Kiev, ferocious power struggles broke out between Poroshenko's camp and that of Tymoshenko. To this is added the eternal nationalist-radical faction that wants to declare war on Russia and, of course, the break-up of diplomatic relations.
In this context, the official diplomatic ballet resumes its course at the UN where, while knowing that there was no real chance of concrete success, the Security Council met urgently on the situation in Ukraine. Discussions have taken place, a public debate has resulted in arguments and accusations from both sides. And so, because only that can do the UN.
Low or very optimistic that the dispatch of "blue helmets" to a task to interfere or secure the security of a buffer zone or, in this case, of vessels flying the flag of the United States. UN to escort ships The relations of Ukraine with what Ukraine says are their territorial waters. Or, if all this is the dream of other times when the UN really wanted to say something, at least a trivial and trivial mission of observers. Otherwise the UN, at least the OSCE, because the organization should remember how the Russians have carefully surrounded the official messengers who feared for their lives and were spared from the region by the troops Russian specialties to which, in addition, they also warmly thanked them.
For the moment, it does not seem that anyone wants to open the doors of a conflict. Not even poor Ukraine.
For the moment, what is certain is a new message from the Russian force stating clearly who really controls the area and that the 2003 Russian-Ukrainian cooperation agreement on the status of the Azov Sea and the Strait Kerch (the Sea of Azov being defined as "divided") depends exclusively on their goodwill and not on the rules of the international game, and less on the wishes or claims of Ukraine.
In this regard, the question that should be on the table of all Western policymakers is not just about what is happening with the status of the sea of Azov or half of Ukraine that is controlled by the Kiev legal government and whether to guarantee traffic in the Kerch Strait. From my point of view, the real question is whether Western military intelligence can accurately write down the level of direct risk to countries on the NATO / Russia line of contact for the future (or future) of Russia in its immediate vicinity. For months, in the context of the judicious withdrawal of American interests from the EU Member States, Russia is rapidly consolidating its alignment from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea via the Strait and now firmly rests in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. . And they are no longer alone, because China is going even faster by creating a bridgehead in some of the main civilian and military strategic ports of the Mediterranean (EU + Israel), and Turkey is stabilizing as a great player of the region, Russian, Chinese and Iranian geostrategic interests.
For the moment, it does not seem that anyone wants to open the doors of a conflict. Not even poor Ukraine. Instead, it is clear that a situation "of exposure to major vulnerabilities" has been created and the most important scenario is traced, which shows how fast Russia can move just pieces on the other side of the border with NATO / EU, Romania. to be the first in the land and sea direction of any offensive intent.
Until now, it has not happened here. Once again, under the conditions of a cold war, we must seriously consider reaching it here.
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