Trump and Putin face to face. The stakes of the Russian-American summit in Helsinki – Essential

US President Donald Trump arrives in Helsinki during his first bilateral meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in a climate of confusion due to the contrast between his conciliation speech in Russia and the sanctions of his government against the government in Moscow and in the shadow of the investigation of the special prosecutor Robert Mueller on the alleged involvement of Russia in the US presidential elections of 2016, comments EFE, quoted by Agerpres.

After more than a year of conflicting signals, the big question raised by many observers is which Trump approach – who left Britain on Sunday – when he meets Putin on Monday in Helsinki, and s & # He reflects his friendly rhetoric towards the Russian president or the hard line of his advisers. "If you're in Moscow and you're trying to understand US policy towards Russia, you do not have an easy mission," former US diplomat expert Steven Pifer told EFE. in Russia working at the Brookings Study Center. The "vast majority" of US foreign policy officials promotes the "Republican Party Line" towards Russia, a firm stance towards Ukraine, Syria and the alleged interference of Moscow in the US. US presidential election in 2016, explained Pifer. "It was the policy of the last 18 months, but I do not know if Trump is totally in agreement with it," he added, saying that "the president's reluctance to criticize Putin during many Russian actions for a year and a half, deserves to be criticized, extremely disconcerting and very difficult to understand. "

Even during the 2016 election campaign, Trump repeatedly praised Putin and downplayed the possibility that the Russia either intervened in the 2016 elections to help it win, even going as far as challenging the findings of US intelligence agencies. Trump has promised to address this issue in Helsinki, but does not seem to have any intention of overemphasizing this topic if Putin refuses once again any form of interference, as he does. Did in two meetings between the two. July 2017 in Germany and November in Vietnam. "It is possible (like Putin) to deny, all I can say, is:" did you do it? "and" no longer do it ", but can deny it," said Trump at a press conference he held Thursday in Brussels.

US intelligence agencies are also fearful of possible Russian interference in the November US legislative elections, but Trump did not say he shared this concern. "The president is discussing this issue in his own way," said US Ambassador to Moscow Jon Huntsman last week. Trump's discomfort on this topic seems to be due to his frustration with the investigation of Robert Mueller's special prosecutor over Russian electoral interference, an ongoing investigation that the US president considers a "witch hunt" The aiming.

But that does not quite explain Trump's other comments, such as his insistence that Russia return to the G7, which was ruled out in 2014 after the annexation of the province of Crimea in Ukraine. Some observers even fear that Trump will change the official US position vis-à-vis the Crimea, since at the G7 summit last month, the media said, according to press, that the peninsula should remain in Russia because all world speaks Russian. "What will happen from now with Crimea, I can not say," said Trump Thursday, who insisted that his predecessor, Democrat Barack Obama, would accuse Russia of invading Crimea. But beyond Trump's statements, his administration has maintained the hard line with Russia that started in the last years of Obama's term and "went even further," as in the case of "the decision to offer lethal military aid to Ukraine "recalls Pifer.

In April, the White House adopted the most severe measure to date, punishing seven oligarchs and 17 Russian officials, among them, Putin's son-in-law; But Trump has blocked this month a new round of sanctions against Russia that the US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley had announced the day before and related to Russia's involvement in the conflict. Syria. And although the United States reacted to the alleged attack of former Russian spy Sergei Skipral by Russia, expelling 60 officials from that country, Trump was upset when he discovered that the answer his government was much harder than that of the European countries. "These incidents highlight a disturbing profile of a president who is not in tune with his own administration on the eve of a summit with Putin whose goals are unclear," wrote analyst Brian O 'Atlantic Council toole on the site of this center.

On the other hand, the Helsinki summit seems to be the perfect opportunity for Moscow to print a new round of relations with Washington, although the absence optimism is noticed, notes ironically EFE, the reason being – according to the cited source – "baggage" with which the two leaders arrive in the Finnish capital. And this is reflected in the few expectations of Russian public opinion in the run-up to the Helsinki meeting, as evidenced by a recent survey, in which only 33% of Russians said they expected positive results. The absolute majority of participants in the survey – 56% – do not expect significant progress in the talks between Putin and Trump.

The annexation of Crimea, the conflict in the east of Ukraine, the Russian military intervention in Syria, the investigation into the alleged interference of the Russia in the US presidential election that culminated in the White House, the sanctions and mutual expulsions of diplomats affect the relations between Moscow and Washington. But in the European and European political circles, but also in the United States, the Russian-American summit woke up fears that Trump could reach unilateral agreements with the Kremlin leader, ignoring his Western allies in terms of, for example, annexation of Crimea. This possibility was mentioned by some Russian newspapers, such as the Gazeta.ru digital publication, which pointed out that for Crimea, the subject of Crimea is a subject open to negotiations.

"We can expect all kinds of statements before the summit and the press conference in the end, but that does not mean that something crucial will happen during the meeting., We're not waiting no great results, "said historian and political scientist Valeri Solovei. According to the Russian expert, no one will make concessions in Helsinki, not even with regard to Ukraine. "It is obvious that there will be no recognition of the reunification with the Crimea and no sanctions" imposed on Russia, said Solovets in the daily Moskovsky Komsomolets. In his opinion, at the Helsinki Summit, what happened in Singapore at the meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which would have been "a" transcendental meeting "and which in reality has not changed much later. "

However, Putin must reach a consensus with Trump, whenever it is insignificant, to stop the degradation of bilateral relations. Several Russian publications acknowledge that Syria could be the right subject to reach an agreement, taking into account Trump's statements regarding his intention to withdraw the US military from the Arab country. In case of agreement between the two on Syria, the US president would have the opportunity to stand in front of his country's public opinion as a peacekeeper, while Putin could "sell himself" "As the winner of a geopolitical battle, that Russia's ambitions in Syria are likely to be affected by the Iranian, Turkish and Saudi presence. In any case, the unpredictability of Trump is a factor that could hinder all predictions on the Russian-American summit in Helsinki.