Yet Hyde-Smith's victory and size (relatively small) make a lot of sense if placed in the context of this electoral cycle. Here are five points to remember for the Mississippi race and why it failed.
1. The result looks like what you expect in a climate of blue waves
Mississippi is a really red state. President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2016. Therefore, in a political environment in which Democrats win the single-digit national vote, the number of Democrats to win a seat in the Mississippi Senate is high . We were rather expecting them to get closer to what Hillary Clinton did in 2016. That's exactly what happened.
When I used the results of other races in the Senate this year and had taken control of the outgoing and outgoing president elections, a Hyde-Smith victory of about 7 percentage points was expected . It's just around the margin, she ended up winning.
2. Hyde-Smith's comments probably hurt him
At the time of the primaries, when all the Democrats and Republicans clashed, the Republicans got 58% of the votes of the Democrats, or 42% of the votes. In our hyper-polarized political climate, you would expect Hyde-Smith to capture just about every other Republican vote. Remember that his Republican opponent in the first round was the most conservative Chris McDaniel, whose voters would not be inclined to vote for Espy.
3. Trump helped Republicans in 2018 Senate races
It's not entirely clear if Trump's last minute visit to Mississippi made the difference. What has helped Hyde-Smith, however, is that Trump is well liked in the state.
4. Future hopes of Democrats are among college graduates from non-rural areas
Mississippi was exactly the wrong place to see this in action. The state ranks 49th in the country for adults with a university degree.
Mississippi, however, ranks in the top 5 for the population living in a rural area.
5. Doug Jones' Alabama victory took place under unique circumstances
A large number of Democrats had hoped that the state of Mississippi from a deep red would turn into a red state of Alabama after Hyde-Smith went to water-from -life.
That's why we will have to keep a watchful eye on this project by 2020. If its approval rating is the one it's currently in, Republicans will suffer, but they will not lose in the red zones. dark. If it goes down, a defeat of Trump will not only bring it down, it could bring down Republicans even in the Great South.