Run-off in Mississippi: What we learned from the last race in the Senate in 2018


Yet Hyde-Smith's victory and size (relatively small) make a lot of sense if placed in the context of this electoral cycle. Here are five points to remember for the Mississippi race and why it failed.

1. The result looks like what you expect in a climate of blue waves

Mississippi is a really red state. President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2016. Therefore, in a political environment in which Democrats win the single-digit national vote, the number of Democrats to win a seat in the Mississippi Senate is high . We were rather expecting them to get closer to what Hillary Clinton did in 2016. That's exactly what happened.

When I used the results of other races in the Senate this year and had taken control of the outgoing and outgoing president elections, a Hyde-Smith victory of about 7 percentage points was expected . It's just around the margin, she ended up winning.

2. Hyde-Smith's comments probably hurt him

At the time of the primaries, when all the Democrats and Republicans clashed, the Republicans got 58% of the votes of the Democrats, or 42% of the votes. In our hyper-polarized political climate, you would expect Hyde-Smith to capture just about every other Republican vote. Remember that his Republican opponent in the first round was the most conservative Chris McDaniel, whose voters would not be inclined to vote for Espy.

Instead, Espy gained about 5 points in the second round compared to his primary vote share of 41%. His performance in the state seems to be better than any Democratic Senate candidate in 30 years.

3. Trump helped Republicans in 2018 Senate races

It's not entirely clear if Trump's last minute visit to Mississippi made the difference. What has helped Hyde-Smith, however, is that Trump is well liked in the state.

Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith Wins Second Round of US Senate in Mississippi amid racial controversy
A live interview poll of RRH Elections, which called landlines and mobile phones taken before the second round, had obtained Trump's approval at 56% among voters. (A Marist College survey last month had an approval rate of 56% among all voters.) Hyde-Smith, who is very closely related to the president, has won almost all of these approvers. Tonight's results confirm this poll.
In the Senate, the Republicans have managed well in red and solid states. They were able to achieve a net gain of two seats in 2018, in part because five incumbent Democrats stood in the states that Trump had won by 19 points or more in 2016. The Republicans had won three of those five seats. They also retained the two Republican seats that were supposed to be at least vaguely competitive (Mississippi and Tennessee) in roughly as red states.

4. Future hopes of Democrats are among college graduates from non-rural areas

The big story of the 2018 elections was how the Democrats managed to convince college-educated and traditionally Republican voters. Exit polls reveal that they won by a margin of 20 points in the vote in the 2018 Chamber of Deputies.

Mississippi was exactly the wrong place to see this in action. The state ranks 49th in the country for adults with a university degree.

In addition, Democrats have been very successful in cleaning up urban and suburban areas. For example, there is not a single Republican representative in a completely urban congressional district.

Mississippi, however, ranks in the top 5 for the population living in a rural area.

5. Doug Jones' Alabama victory took place under unique circumstances

A large number of Democrats had hoped that the state of Mississippi from a deep red would turn into a red state of Alabama after Hyde-Smith went to water-from -life.

Jones' opponent, Roy Moore, did not like going into the election. He had significantly underperformed in his previous race at the state-level Supreme Court. Hyde-Smith won 61% of the vote in his previous race as Commissioner for Agriculture and Trade. The charges of sexual misconduct against Moore were the water drop, while Hyde-Smith had room to spare.
It is perhaps also important to note that Trump's national approval rate was lower by about 6 points in the Alabama elections compared to now.

That's why we will have to keep a watchful eye on this project by 2020. If its approval rating is the one it's currently in, Republicans will suffer, but they will not lose in the red zones. dark. If it goes down, a defeat of Trump will not only bring it down, it could bring down Republicans even in the Great South.


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