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U.S. officials are also concerned about the long-term goals of the Kremlin ally in this war-torn state. An intelligence official notes that the trench is a sign that Wagner, who the official says has his largest global presence in Libya, “is settling for the long haul.”
The trench, which stretches dozens of kilometers south of the populated coastal areas around Sirte towards the Wagner-controlled stronghold of al-Jufra, can be seen in satellite imagery and is reinforced by a series of elaborate fortifications.
CNN has contacted the Russian government for comment and has received no response.
The trench and fortifications appear designed to prevent or halt a ground attack on LNA-controlled areas to the east, traversing the populated coastal areas of Libya that have seen the most clashes since the fall of Moamer Gaddafi’s regime in 2011.
The GNA released images of excavators and trucks creating the ditch and berm that runs alongside it and said work appeared to be underway as recently as this month.
The trench, the US intelligence official said, is another reason “we see no intention or movement of Turkish or Russian forces to abide by the UN-brokered deal. It could derail a peace process. and an already fragile ceasefire. be a really tough year ahead. “
Open source surveillance says it has mapped a series of more than 30 defensive positions carved out of the desert and hills that stretch for about 70 kilometers.
Maxar’s satellite images appear to show both the trench stretching along a main road and the fortifications dug, also by the Wagner mercenaries and their contractors.
Images show a build-up of defenses around Jufra Air Base, as well as Brak Airfield further south, where apparent radar defenses have been set up and fortified.
Salaheddin Al-Namroush, the GNA’s defense minister, told CNN: “I don’t think anyone digging a trench today and making these reinforcements is leaving soon.”
Claudia Gazzini, of the International Crisis Group, told CNN the trench was “indeed worrying” and that discussions about it “have been circulating among diplomats for a few weeks. This continues and suggests that Moscow is keen to consolidate its presence in Libya.”
Analysts said the Kremlin wanted to strengthen its military presence and influence in the Mediterranean, along NATO’s southern belly, with the added benefit of participating in and profiting from the Libyan oil industry.
Gazzini added that there were repeated reports that the two sides continued to maintain and bolster a presence of foreign mercenaries, with the GNA also being accused of boosting its supplies of military equipment, as part of a public agreement. with Turkey to support its armed forces.
The US intelligence official said the number of mercenaries on both the GNA and ANL side was relatively constant: around 10,000 were currently in Libya, according to a September AFRICOM report on the matter.
The Libyan deployment of around 2,000 foreign Wagner mercenaries – most of whom are said to be Russian nationals or former Soviets – is the largest private military enterprise in the world, the US official said.
An ANL spokesman, Major General Khaled al-Mahjoub, confirmed the existence of the trenches to CNN, but described them as sand barriers and “temporary” trenches, in “an open area. .. for defense and fighting ”. He denied the presence of 2,000 Wagner mercenaries, and said there were consultants “announced a long time ago.”
But, a confidential UN report in June, obtained by CNN, described Wagner’s fighters as “an effective force multiplier.”
Last year Russian President Vladimir Putin said there were no Russians in Libya, but if there are, they do not represent Russia. Russia has always denied that it uses mercenaries to fight for it.
Despite an arms embargo, UN inspectors recorded dozens of Russian flights in Libya throughout 2020.
The US Africa Command has publicly called on Russia to expand, saying it is similar to actions in Syria.
In June, the head of the defense committee of the upper house of the Russian parliament, Viktor Bondarev, said the American claim was “stupid” and suggested that they were old Soviet planes from elsewhere in Africa.
A Western diplomat with knowledge of arms movements to Libya said Russian flights to the country had risen from their peak of 93 in August to just over a dozen per month by the end of 2020. “They don’t. are only keeping themselves on the ground, ”he said. said, adding that Turkey was flying in similar numbers.
The Turkish military is open to its desire for a permanent presence, posting footage of its military giving “basic defense training” to the GNA last week.
“It’s a global effort,” the US official said. “They build facilities, bring in personnel and materials. They have the HAWK air defense missile batteries, 3D [KALAKAN] radar.”
Satellite images of al-Khoms port show minor changes suggesting that it may be prepared for a longer-term Turkish naval presence, which GNA al-Namroush has denied.
A senior Turkish security official told CNN that they “continue to provide military training, cooperation and advice … as needed and requested by the GNA.”
The thousands of Syrian mercenaries that Turkey transported and supported in Libya have also been used elsewhere, the US intelligence official has revealed. During Turkey’s support for the Azerbaijani government in their recent conflict with Armenia, planes have transported hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan, to aid Turkey’s ally in its war with Armenia, said the Minister. American official.
“It appears that there has been a movement of some of the Syrian mercenary forces towards the conflict in [Nagorno Karabakh]. Smaller numbers, in the lower hundreds, ”the official added.
Wagner’s Russian-backed forces aim to provide Moscow with influence but not accountability, analysts said. Jalel Harchaoui, senior researcher at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, said Wagner’s mercenary forces were “by definition disposable” – and a “force that does not exist, according to the Russian state’s official version. . means that it is not formidable, formidable and effective enough ”, but that it offers the greatest flexibility to the Kremlin.
Gazzini added: “Russian policy in Libya is opaque – which is what Russia wants to do. From the evidence on the ground, it looks like they want to consolidate their influence, or want to find a way out.”
Still, the US official added that the Russian build-up now represented significant personnel and state-of-the-art equipment, but presented ethical concerns. “Fourth generation fighter jets and Pantsir missile systems are operated by less capable and poorly trained Wagner mercenaries,” the official said.
“There are complex challenges in Libya, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, and the mercenaries with their low level of training, experience and disrespect for human rights and international law, make these systems weapons in those hands of most concern.
While Wagner’s presence and trench appear to bring an advantage to ANL chief General Haftar, the Russian presence appears to be more focused on Moscow’s agenda than on supporting Haftar, analysts say.
The Western diplomat said Haftar needed continued conflict in Libya to maintain his relevance. “It becomes useless overnight if the conflict ends,” the diplomat said. “And if he doesn’t finish on his terms, he becomes vulnerable to allegations of war crimes, etc.”
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