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LONDON – A significant rise in tensions between Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks has raised fears of a resumption of the military conflict.
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea to Ukraine in 2014, skirmishes have continued between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists in Donbass, a region in eastern Ukraine. The fighting, punctuated by periods of ceasefires (which both sides accused the other of violating), are said to have killed around 14,000 people.
Last week Ukraine said four of its troops were killed by Russian forces shelling in Donbass.
Earlier in March, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ruslan Khomchak, declared that Russia’s “armed aggression” in Donbass was a “major threat” not only to Ukraine’s national security, but also for all NATO allies. Earlier this week, he said there had been a build-up of Russian troops near the border.
Russia’s actions have not gone unnoticed in the United States On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Washington’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity “in the face of continued Russian aggression”, the State Department said in a statement.
Speaking to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Blinken “expressed concern about the security situation in eastern Ukraine and offered his condolences for the recent loss of four Ukrainian soldiers,” the Minister added. communicated.
The Kremlin said on Wednesday it was concerned about rising tensions in eastern Ukraine and feared the Kiev forces could do something to reignite conflict.
“We express our concern at the growing tension and we are concerned that somehow the Ukrainian side may take provocative measures that will lead to war. We really don’t want to see this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to Reuters.
“I mean a civil war, which already existed,” Peskov said, when asked to clarify on a conference call with reporters.
Speaking on Tuesday to German Chancellor Angela Markel and French President Emmanuel Macron, who tried to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed “his deep concern over the escalation of the armed confrontation on the line of contact provoked by Ukraine “and, as Russia sees it, Ukraine’s” refusal “to honor the agreements that were part of the last coordinated ceasefire in July.
Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, noted Wednesday that “it feels like Putin is trying to test and probe the West’s defenses and resolve to face it – it can be. -be a prelude to a new military offensive in Ukraine. “
“It feels like Putin is preparing to take a big step – perhaps a diversion from his own problems at home with Navalny and focus on… the State Duma elections. A victory in Ukraine would again throw red meat at the nationalist crowd in Russia and once again expose the weakness of the West, ”he added, referring to the incarcerated Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.
Ash advised Russian observers to keep an eye out for water shortages that have occurred in Crimea. whose roots were laid seven years ago when Ukraine closed the North Crimean Canal, cutting off most of the region’s freshwater supply.
“If somewhere I looked at the south and the water problems in Crimea. The risk is that Russia will try diversionary tactics in the Donbass when the biggest prize would be a military push in Ukraine to capture the courses. water supplying the Crimea with water “. Ash said.
“Maybe Putin thinks the West is weak and divided and unable to respond,” Ash continued, citing inadequate sanctions from the Joe Biden administration on, for example, the Nordstream gas pipeline, the SolarWinds hack that has violated US government networks and the 2016 election. interference “as a signal that the US is simply petrified to act for fear of what Russia might do”.
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