Sailors to sign James Paxton

By TC Zencka | February 13, 2021 at 9:07 p.m. CDT

The Seattle Mariners have struck a deal with James paxton, by Chad Dey of Sportsnet650 (via Twitter). Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirmed the agreement. Paxton will earn $ 8.5 million on a one-year contract with bonuses increasing the potential value to $ 10 million, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). “Big Maple” will win an additional $ 750,000 with 10 games and $ 750,000 with 20 games, add Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Paxton is represented by the Boras Company.

By signing for just one season, Paxton will have the opportunity to prove his good health and return to the open market. It’s no small thing that he can do it in an environment where he is comfortable, having made T-Mobile Park his home from 2013 to 2018. Assuming good health, Paxton should have no trouble. Achieve those performance incentives to make this contract a $ 10 million cleanse.

Health hasn’t always been Paxton’s strong suit, of course. Before missing most of 2020 with a left flexor strain, Paxton spent time on the injured list with inflamed knee, two left forearm bruises, lower back inflammation, muscle tense pectoral, a contusion of the left elbow, a strained tendon in his middle finger, as as well as twice on the set in 2014 with a muscle strain of the left Latissimus dorsi (read: back). He’s only made five starts for the Yankees this season after 29, 28, 24 and 20 the previous four years. Despite the litany of evils, Paxton had largely persevered before missing most of 2020.

It’s worth mentioning that the Mariners have been clear on their intentions to run a six-man rotation in 2021. Nonetheless, a healthy season would see Paxton well pass the 20-game threshold, and the extra time between starts is over. likely to help Paxton. do 20 games that badly. The 32-year-old will place himself near the top of the Mariners’ rotation with other lefties Marco gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justus sheffield. Right-handed Chris flexen and Justin dunn should complete the six-man crew.

For the Mariners, the case has few drawbacks. Seattle still has a payroll of less than $ 100 million, and its long-term flexibility is intact. Meanwhile, they can send Paxton back to the team that drafted him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. He made 102 starts in six seasons for the Mariners, earning a reputation as a starter with front row potential thanks to to 3.58 / 3.13 FIP ERA in 582 1/3 innings up to this point. The Mariners offered it to the Yankees after the 2018 season for Thompson-Williams House, Erik Swansonand Sheffield. The Mariners will now enjoy at least one season of Paxton and Sheffield in the rotation together.

On the diamond, Paxton has the potential to move the needle for the Mariners. Limited to just 20 1/3 inning in 2020, Paxton entered free agency on the heels of an interest-free 6.64 ERA. However, many of Paxton’s underlying metrics were much more optimistic. It recorded a 4.37 FIP / 3.88 SIERA, a typically strong withdrawal rate of 28.9% and an average walk rate of around 7.8%. He’s even put together a career-high average fastball speed of 90.7 mph.

A 32.1 percent ground ball rate continued a two-year hike in flyball rate, which led to more home runs in the Bronx. Prior to joining the Yankees, however, Paxton had a 44.7 percent ground ball rate. At this price, betting on a return to his career standards is a reasonable bet for the M’s, who continue to position themselves as a potential sleeper in a year when the AL West looks bigger than ever.