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Corporate payrolls rose by 195,000 in August, well above Wall Street estimates and at a time when fears of an impending recession have increased, according to a report released Thursday by ADP and Moody & # 39; s Analytics.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones sought a gain of 140,000 euros only after the 142,000 euros in July, which was reduced by 14,000 euros compared to the initial figure. August growth is the best since the 255,000 people added in April.
The numbers come amid speculation that the decade-long economic expansion is coming to an end. The New York Federal Reserve estimates at 39% the probability of a recession in the next 12 months, its highest level since the Great Recession that ended in mid-2009.
"Companies are keeping their payroll despite the downturn in the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, in a statement. "Hires have moderated, but layoffs remain weak and as long as this recession continues, the recession will remain at a distance."
However, he also said that the current pace of employment growth should continue as various sectors, including manufacturing and agriculture, are declining.
"This shows why the economy is in danger, because if job growth slows, unemployment will start to rise and will drive the recession," Zandi added in an interview with CNBC.
100,000 new jobs were created in the education and health (58,000) and recreation and hospitality (42,000) sectors. Health care and social assistance were the fastest growing sub-component, with 45,000 additional jobs.
In total, services accounted for 184,000 of the total, while goods-producing industries added 11,000. Manufacturing increased by 8,000 and construction increased by 6,000, but natural resources and mines were reduced by 2,000. information services lost 6,000 jobs.
Businesses with 50 to 499 employees posted the strongest growth, with 77,000 people, while small businesses grew by 66,000. Companies with more than 1,000 employees grew by 47,000.
The ADP / Moody count is one day ahead of the Department of Labor's non-farm payroll report, which is under increased scrutiny. Dow Jones estimates that the report will show a payroll growth of 150,000 people after the 164,000 in July, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7%.
Continued job growth shows that the US economy "remains relatively in shape," said Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics, adding that the government's report would only increase by 110,000 people.
Economists will sometimes use the APP / Moody's report to refine their estimates. All told, the two accounts were close until 2019, with the average monthly number of ADP exceeding the government's 5,800, and the midpoint, or midpoint, lower than the Ministry of Labor's total of 16 000.
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