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Mahmoud Gamal – Mubasher: Analysts have ruled out that international news agencies’ announcement that Joe Biden won the presidency of the United States of America after a bitter battle with rival Donald Trump would have a significant negative impact on the performance of the Gulf financial markets. and Egypt in this week’s sessions, especially since the supreme speech will be the next period for business results in addition to official means. In the region’s stock exchanges, to attract foreign investors, who are at the forefront of government proposals, analysts said.
Preliminary results of the U.S. presidential election today, Saturday, showed Biden won the presidential race after winning Pennsylvania, which has 20 constituency seats, bringing Biden’s constituency seat count to 273 against 213 seats for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In regional financial markets, at the end of last Thursday’s session, most Arab stock indices rose, with the Saudi Stock Exchange edging up 0.01%, the main Egyptian stock market index by 0.7% , the Dubai market index of 0.32% and the Abu Dhabi market of 0.6%.
Ayman Fouda, head of the Financial Markets Committee of the African Economic Council, expected stability to dominate the performance of the Gulf and Egyptian stock exchanges in light of the weightings also with the stability of world stock markets.
He pointed out that if there were any negative effects in the markets, which is unlikely after absorbing the outcome and Biden’s victory, however, those effects will be temporary until Biden confirms his adoption of pushing the US economy through balanced policies with countries around the world, especially China, the world’s second largest economy.
Fouda stressed that this, in turn, will gradually be reflected in financial markets after restoring confidence in the US economy and indicators, adding: “So there is no need to worry about the Democrat’s victory. Joe Biden. “
And there were three sessions of upward mobility in the Egyptian market during the election and with the week closing with the main index up more than 1% and the stock market up £ 3.374 billion on a weekly, as well as the return of international trade to close the price gap it achieved during the decline with the crisis of the Manage Council.
Fouda waited for the control of the accidental performance which tends to rise on the main index with the entry of institutional liquidity in the leaders, while the performance of the 70s will fluctuate affected by the waves of reciprocal profit taking on its securities, which have seen a sharp rise in the last period with the emergence of new leaders for the index, which will start to kick in during sessions next week.
He added that this should be done with him so as not to waste the stocks with the continuation of negative and normal trades depending on the performance of the stock during the session and the trend of the stocks with price fluctuations which have a overall performance which allows the use of the zero mechanism after the risk calculation and the extreme selectivity of the actions which allow this .. and the emphasis on one third of the portfolio. Financial liquidity and complete abandonment of the forward sales policy.
For his part, Mahmoud Shukri, CEO of AMS Investment Group, told “Mubasher” that there is no doubt that the US election is the fiercest ever, in light of intense competition between a leading candidate, John Biden, and a candidate who threatens to challenge the results before they even officially emerge. Perhaps the uncertainty over the results and the delay in resolving them so far, despite the announcement and anticipation of the official results by the US media in announcing Biden’s victory, has affected US financial markets from positively, contrary to expectations.
He added that the Dow Jones, which peaked in the Trump era, has turned its direction even in the emergence of results reflecting the progress of Biden, who waved in his program of initiatives from day one. with additional packages to support the US economy to accelerate the recovery through Corona measures.
He stressed that this increase will positively affect the markets of Egypt and the Gulf countries, coinciding with the announcement of the preliminary results of these elections, noting that the correction operations in the Gulf and Egyptian markets have taken place both because of the increases they have witnessed thanks to the gradual return of confidence with the opening of economic activities.
He added that the impact of the Gulf and Egyptian markets was on the rise from a technical point of view, stressing that the effect of announcing these preliminary results for the US presidency would be limited. .
In turn, Hanan Ramses, an economist at the Freedom Securities Brokerage Company, expected the markets to react, perhaps in the affirmative, in response to Americans’ satisfaction with their choice, as the question settled. for the name of Joe Biden, President of the United States after a period of uncertainty and ambiguity.
She pointed out that the more the situation became clearer, the more markets reacted, positively or negatively, to the US markets, which began to rise gradually to compensate for their losses after a wave of declines.
She explained that the vision of dealers and investors in America and Europe differs from our vision in the Arab world and the concerns relate to how we deal with interference in politics and the care and development of democracy. as the Democrats claim.
She said the concerns may not have merit at the moment, as most Arab countries have gone through one political movement and then started taking one direction without the other. Egypt, after economic reform and after economic growth and credit ratings, will not return to the epidemic, so it has proven its existence and ability to be in the ranks of countries that get rates. Strong growth As for the markets, their influence depends on foreign investment, and I believe that they will not bring money from the Gulf to spread the so-called democracy.
For his part, Mohamed Abdel Hadi, director of the Wateqah Securities Brokerage Company, told “Mubasher” that no one can definitively determine the position, behavior and behavior of investors in all the Gulf and Egyptian markets.
He pointed out that history can draw the characteristics of the scholarships in celebrating the US presidential candidate for a new period, and therefore the scholarships and their link with the world stock exchanges will celebrate the presidential candidate, Biden, and what not. is that my time, but the most suitable for scholarships among applicants is the one that provides economic incentives, especially to the American people.
Abdul Hadi pointed out that the best stock market is Donald Trump, who owns 144 companies in 25 countries around the world and is interested in the US stock market, and if he wins, the stock exchanges that are his focus would move without any doubt around 30,000 and would thus move all the purses with the same movement.
Dr Mohammed Rashid, economist and lecturer at the Faculty of Politics and Economics at Beni Suef University, believes that financial markets in general will receive this news with great optimism, which will whet investor appetite for buying. .
He added that this makes us expect the color green to dominate in most cases global stock indices, including the Gulf stock exchanges and the Egyptian stock exchange, which I confirmed earlier that the timing was right. and very suitable to buy after the appearance of the first indications of the progress of Joe Biden.
He stressed that this reflected a calming of the atmosphere with the Chinese adversary regarding the trade war, besides not continuing the escalation policy with the Iranian side, which will positively affect the world economy, which needs rational global policies and effective international cooperation to emerge from its repression.
As Mina Rafiq, research director at Al-Marwa Securities Brokerage Company, confirmed to “Mubasher” that the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden’s victory in the US election could confuse financial markets in a blurry scene with his orientations towards the dossiers dealing with the Corona crisis and trends in monetary and financial policy, particularly with its trends towards increased corporate taxes.
He stressed that the positive aspect of Biden’s victory was his tendency to restore relations with China and the European Union, to ease the burden of tariffs on companies in the industrial sector, in addition to the approval of a huge stimulus package to counter the effects of the spread of the coronavirus.
He pointed out that these upcoming measures, if his victory is officially confirmed, could be affected by financial markets in Egypt and the Gulf countries by fluctuations in world markets, stressing that there are still attractive stocks that have sufficient liquidity to cope with fluctuations in national and global demand and supply which could move towards the accidental trend during This period and then recover from stability, and therefore there are good investment opportunities in the long term .
Mohamed Gaballah, head of business development at Pioneers, said the Egyptian stock market would not be negatively affected by what is being raised about the early results of Joe Biden’s victory as President of the United States, indicating that major equity investors have not tended to exit over the last period, especially with the occurrence of the administrative crisis in the International Commercial Bank The stock market absorbed it, and then it is expected to that the bank’s stock, which has the highest participation rate in the index, leads the Egyptian stock market to rise during this week’s trading.
For his part, Mohamed Mahdi, financial market advisor and certified expert on the Egyptian Stock Exchange, confirmed that the precipitation of some leaders of the major countries of the world and of the Arab region in particular confirms the extent to which the preliminary results of these presidential elections have been absorbed, which will result in stability, and which can be traced back to the Arab financial markets.
He pointed out that the interaction in the markets will take place 100 days after Joe Biden assumed the presidency in January 2021, if the results are officially confirmed, after highlighting the features of his economic plan that the whole world is waiting for, in particular. China, after the outbreak of the trade war with America, which was the work of Donald Trump.
Doaa Zaidan, Financial Markets Expert at Tycoon Securities Brokerage, said: Arab markets, especially the Egyptian Stock Exchange, are awaiting some changes that will attract new investors, such as initial public offerings and the like, indicating that the repercussions of the second wave of Corona spread will have the highest word. in the markets of the region in addition to the results of business activities in the coming period.
She stressed that the election of Joe Biden will give some impetus to the deliberations of the week, but his economic policies and his statements will then determine where the financial markets will go, which will be clarified in the days following his formal assumption of the presidency in next january.
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