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Relevant US experts are discussing the issue of US policy towards the Middle East and its expectations under the administration of President-elect Joe Biden. There were several questions, the most important of which were three: When and how will American change occur regarding the nuclear deal with Iran? Is there a draft settlement for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? What is the fate of standardization agreements?
These three questions must have struck the minds of political leaders in the Arab world, for not two of them disagree on the importance of the question: How will Biden deal with the Middle East? East?
We choose here, by approval and comment, the answers given by a number of American scholars, which were published by the Jerusalem Post. They are David Makovsky, director of the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy Project and the Middle East Peace Process, and director of the “Curette” project on Israeli-Arab relations at the Washington Institute, who, with Dennis Ross, co -written “Myths, Illusions, and Peace”.
Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of the American Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and Dennis Ross of the Washington Institute, who was a veteran American adviser and peace process mediator under the Clinton and George HW Bush administrations, also participated in responses to the Middle East issues.
There is no reason to ignore the Palestinians. You can follow these marginal agreements, and all these normalization agreements, and at the same time, he deals with the Palestinians.
Makovsky says: “The new administration will focus on Covid-19 even after signs of a vaccine appear. Indeed, the economic effects of the pandemic are very dire and exacerbated by other issues such as climate change and health care, in addition to foreign policy issues including how to deal with China. Therefore, those interested in the Middle East should “calibrate” their expectations well, and not be optimistic about an impending fundamental decision!
Jonathan Schanzer said: “Biden inherits many national difficulties that will push the Middle East to the lowest priority. It is about Covid-19, about rebuilding the economy, in a way that helps resolve the political divide in the country. I think the nature of the mandate expressed in the election results is not to focus on the outside, to keep things focused in the United States. The Americans hope that the presidency will monitor the distribution of the vaccine well. There are other internal challenges that require the president’s attention. So I think the Middle East will seem less urgent, at least in the first year, or maybe the next two years.
Dennis Ross confirms what his colleagues have said and says that national issues will take priority. “We could see an increase in the pandemic of up to two hundred thousand infections per day by the month of May,” he added. We need to focus on anticipating disaster. “
Responding to the question of returning to the Iran nuclear deal, Makovsky said: “The president-elect wants to renew the joint action plan with the Europeans, provided Iran adheres to the terms of the deal. The Iranians did not comply. So it will take time ”.
Makovsky continues, “The most important statement in Biden’s statements on this issue is that we need to be careful and not rush.” This is perhaps his main criticism of Israel, which opposed the clause on the period of suspension of enrichment.
As for Jonathan Schanzer, he said: “The Iranian question will be raised sooner than others. There is still debate within the Democratic Party foreign policy establishment over whether to revert to the Joint Action Plan. Among the interesting questions are those related to the type of personnel who will be involved in the details of the nuclear dossier, are they former work plan engineers, or different people? Are they linked to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party or do they represent the centrists?
“Israelis, Emiratis and Bahrainis can now speak with one voice,” he added. And I think the new alliance we’re seeing in the Middle East might have some influence on future US policy toward Iran. Before, Israel spoke on its own when it raised protests. This time, I don’t think it is.
Dennis Ross responds to Schanzer: “It’s difficult to come back to the JCPOA. You look at it assuming there are negotiations that will take time. But I think the first position of the Biden administration is not to communicate with the Iranians. “This administration will be concerned with re-establishing a common position with the British, French and Germans, to formulate a unified policy, not only on the nuclear issue, but also on ballistic missiles and Iran’s behavior in the region. “
In answer to the question, what will happen to the standardization agreements reached by the Trump administration and these standardization projects that are in their embryonic stage? Makovsky replied, “I think Biden will build on what Trump has done with regard to normalization. This is one of the few cases where he did not object to the previous administration. On the contrary, he saw it as a big step. In my opinion, the “Ibrahim Accords” can be a bridge, not a bypass. “
And just as the UAE infiltration ended the annexation of the West Bank, the situation can repeat itself, and with every step Arab countries take towards Israel, Israel will take a step against the Palestinians.
“I think there is a realization among Biden’s advisers that there are real opportunities for peacemaking following the Ibrahim Accords,” Schanzer replies. We are studying the possibility of joining the Sultanate of Oman, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and possibly Qatar. The Biden administration, going forward, will almost certainly seek to take advantage of these opportunities. The only question really is whether the same time or the same effort will be devoted to the Palestinians, in order to accommodate this process.
“There is no reason to ignore the Palestinians. You can follow these marginal agreements, and all these normalization agreements, and at the same time, he deals with the Palestinians. I actually think this will give the administration leverage. When the Palestinians see that other countries follow in the footsteps of the Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, they will be convinced that this is a context that encourages colonization. It is hard to imagine that they could ignore this context. So far, it seems that this is still very difficult to achieve.
The new administration will focus on Covid-19 even after signs of a vaccine appear. This is because the economic effects of the pandemic are so dire
Dennis Ross said: “I think other countries will follow the example of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but they will take it step by step. The Palestinians must also realize that they are being left behind and that Arab countries are very clear in their refusal to allow the Palestinians to no longer define their policy towards Israel according to their own interests. “Something larger is happening now,” he said. This is why this normalization process continues. But this process will not necessarily continue in the same way that an Arab state suddenly appears and says: Well, we will do full normalization with Israel. I am convinced that we will see Arab countries take less action. But she will probably say to herself and the Arab world: listen, when we take the plunge, we wait and see what the other side does for the benefit of the Palestinians. Dennis Ross explains his po int of view by saying: “In this gradual context, governments that are moving gradually towards normalization will say as if they were addressing Israel: we are not giving 100% and we are not asking you 100%.”
On the possibility of the Biden administration advancing a peace initiative between the Palestinians and the Israelis, Makovsky replied, “I tend to believe that Biden will go to work to end the Palestinian boycott first.” Hopefully, it will be more like taking token steps in this regard, like reopening the US consulate in East Jerusalem, and finding out what is possible with resuming humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. I think the Palestinians would be smart to make this possible by amending their laws to avoid the administration being forced to continue working under the “ Taylor Force ” law passed by Congress to stop the aid to the Palestinian Authority (the intention of this opinion is the issue of military actions against the occupying forces, and what they call incitement).
As for Dennis Ross, “I don’t believe there will be any major detente between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and that doesn’t mean diplomacy will stop.” When there is no diplomacy, a vacuum emerges. In fact, there have been no direct political talks between Israelis and Palestinians since the spring of 2014, and it will not be correct to launch new initiatives, broad and automatic, which will certainly fail at this stage.
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