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Kuwait- Those most pessimistic about the repercussions of the global situation before the Corona spread did not expect the Middle East and North Africa to witness a crisis like the one countries in the region are going through today, so as they try to cope with the health crisis, however much each government responds, but in the end everyone will be faced with the inevitability of delaying any reform plans. Beyond 2025.
Given the growing concerns of Arab countries, which increasingly need international donors, and the political and development implications of rising external debt in the short and medium term, governments in the region may enter a new cycle. political crises that could scare them away because of their inability to adopt solutions that get people out of their crisis.
Estimates by the Risk Monitoring Department of the Arab Gulf Center for Studies and Research and based on a study of data from the most important international financial institutions, namely the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, indicate that the pandemic of Covid-19 could slow the pace of fundamental economic reforms in the region for about 5 years, until a full recovery begins. Repercussions of the pandemic.
Experts from the Center for Arab Gulf Studies say the difficult economic situation that Arab countries will accept could be an entry point that prompts Israel and its allies to step up pressure on some countries through huge global financial institutions in order to enter into new standardization agreements in exchange for financial aid programs with guarantees from the great powers.
There is no potential indication on the horizon that the American role in direct and indirect pressure to improve Arab countries’ relations with Israel will diminish on the terms of Zionist lobbies affecting the United States and the world.
Normalization carries various slogans of peace, but it is likely that its consequences will come at the expense of the limited geography of the occupied Palestinian territories and the survival of Jerusalem being a subject of controversy as it is gradually imposed in international documents and among world circles as the capital of Israel pending its international and Arab recognition in the future, and such recognition is not certain to meet. Popular rejection.
The influence of foreign interference in Arab countries may increase at the expense of the expectation of a growing Arab division on many important issues in the region, and this aspect may be another reason for delaying the implementing reform programs, especially in countries that are still politically and security-fragile.
With the rise in the debts of the Arab countries, the need of these countries increases for donors, and the repercussions of this increase increase the supposed dependence on external powers. These are the most important future challenges that make Arab countries face one of two options, either financial dependence on the West and the loss of part of their sovereignty, or national renewal and cooperation. Arab joint to achieve the aspirations of peoples, especially young people.
All Arab countries face a set of common challenges ranging from youth unemployment to climate change and terrorism, and this can provide the necessary impetus for Arab cooperation, but in particular it shows that bilateral approaches are no longer sufficient. because none of the aforementioned issues can be addressed without strengthening joint Arab cooperation.
Nonetheless, increased scrutiny of the widening gap between the positions of Arab regimes, which may choose nationalism in their policies, may be the reason for delaying reforms, which may undermine Arab economic integration or exchange of intelligence information.
It seems that history is repeating itself in most Arab countries and that dangers are repeated in various forms. While terrorism has pushed the whole region to penetrate the whole region in a cycle of serious unrest which has led to a deviation from the path of economic recovery from the repercussions of the so-called< printemps arabe >> Focused on countering religious extremism, it neglected to implement significant reforms that would have created jobs, spurred innovation and economic diversification, contributed to growth and fostered stability.
Today, most Arab countries, especially low-income countries, face the same risks with an expected deviation from development plans and a return to combating violence, terrorism and potential unrest, such as likely repercussions during the end of the devastating Corona epidemic at the expense of important reforms which are expected to remain delayed.
The Covid-19 pandemic could slow the pace of fundamental economic reforms in the region for about 5 years to come, until full recovery begins from the repercussions of the pandemic
And after the “Arab Spring” revolutions in 2011, and after the end of terror with the liquidation of ISIS in 2017, and before the invasion of the global epidemic at the end of last year, Arab expectations were optimistic, with an average growth of 5% and a temporary drop in food prices, which are part of the official and popular aspirations.
And these hopes have come based on the confidence of ruling elites in the positive outlook drawn by local and international economic forecasters, which has prompted policymakers in some Arab countries to postpone reforms for several years, but this delay may last longer. after the epidemic.
Instead of growth expectations, Arab economies, which had started to recover from the 2011 crisis, began to contract again due to several factors including the emergence of the epidemic, health risks to national security and the repercussions of state closures that are on the horizon, particularly in poor and low-income countries, leading to slowing optimism. Growth prospects.
All of these situations are consistent with increased monitoring of worrying indicators such as a combination of insecurity, instability and unsustainability of support, and their impact on food price inflation and the collapse of the economy. purchasing power in the light of worsening unemployment indicators and increasing poverty rates.
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