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Washington – US President Donald Trump made some of his most important campaign promises in 2016 in the field of foreign policy, such as a pledge to reassess US relations with NATO, to withdraw from the nuclear deal with l ‘Iran and bring back the US forces from “Eternal Wars”.
The Republican President, a former New York businessman who prides himself on his negotiating skills, has kept some of his promises and partially delivered on others, while so far he has failed completely to hold some of them.
Analysts and former US and EU officials say that if Trump loses in the November 3 election to Democratic rival Joe Biden, the most difficult challenge for the new administration will be to restore the US position and confidence in it. the world.
Biden, who was vice president under Barack Obama, will then handle a bruised relationship with Europe, strong rivalries with China, and pressure campaigns focused on sanctions against Iran, Syria and Venezuela.
Middle East Files
When Democratic candidates talk about the role of the United States in the world, they usually focus on the intention of rebuilding American alliances that Trump’s slogan “America First” has damaged.
Democrats generally agree on the need to revert to the nuclear deal Trump withdrew and work to push North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program and on a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The burning issues of the Middle East and the open conflicts on more than one front, especially the differences with Iran and its proxy weapons in the region, are among the most important priorities of the Trump administration and the challenges that expect Biden if he wins.
Observers expect major shifts in Middle East politics to occur between the US election in November and the Iranian presidential election in May 2022. As opinion polls indicate, Joe is likely Biden will be the next US president. In light of this, President Biden is likely to roll back American foreign policy to the Obama years.
Biden can bring America back to the nuclear deal with Iran and other world powers. On the other hand, Iran is likely to demand clear guarantees that Washington will not seek regime change in Tehran, one of the goals the Trump administration has said it is pursuing.
Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in 2018, saying he could come to a better deal. He also launched the “maximum pressure” campaign to stifle Tehran’s resources.
Although nearly two years have passed in which Washington has imposed sanctions on almost everything from oil and mining revenues to the Iranian Central Bank, it has yet to be able to force Tehran to change its behavior and return to the negotiating table. Indeed, the tension between the two countries increased, until they almost went to war.
Biden says he will deal with Iran through diplomacy and return to the deal, but only on condition that Tehran first returns to comply with the restrictions it places on its nuclear program.
When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump has kept his promise he made in his 2016 election campaign to move the US embassy to Israel to divide Jerusalem. The move was criticized by most Arab countries, but it won the approval of the Israeli government and its supporters, as well as evangelical Christians.
The Palestinians have rejected his broader peace plan because it allows Israel to continue to control the West Bank settlements, which have long been in conflict.
As for Biden’s campaign for 2020, she says that if elected, he will not return the embassy Trump moved to Jerusalem to Tel Aviv, but he will reopen a consulate in East Jerusalem, which Israel has annexed. “to communicate with the Palestinians”. Biden also rejected Trump’s controversial Middle East peace plan, describing it as a “political ploy” and pledging to conduct new negotiations on the basis of a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Biden will face an opponent that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described as Israel’s best friend in the White House.
It also didn’t hide the tension that marred Netanyahu’s relationship with former President Barack Obama, of which Biden was his vice president. But some experts say Biden’s victory will be hailed by the Israeli political and military establishment, not just left-wing opponents of Netanyahu. Biden was known to be a strong supporter of Israel, as he said in a speech in 2015 that the United States must keep its “sacred promise to protect the homeland of the Jewish people”.
Nonetheless, experts have indicated that Biden could also restore the traditional American role as an interlocutor between Israel and the Palestinians, after the PA severed ties with Trump, accusing him of blatant bias towards Israel.
Observers are not optimistic about Badin’s victory, especially as it relates to the leadership of his administration in the region, in light of security concerns and heightened foreign interference in the country’s continued role. sabotage of Iran and of Turkey’s growing ambitions, especially in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
According to a political analyst of Middle East and South Asian affairs, Deniyesh Kamat, the prospects do not look great for those who demand a better life in the region, especially those in Baghdad and Beirut, either during Trump’s victory in the second round or when Biden arrived in the White House. Both countries are politically weak, due to the presence of rival sectarian politicians who owe allegiance to foreign powers. The reason for stalling political reform is that competing powers in the region have not resolved their differences. The path of change in Beirut and Baghdad revolves around Tehran, Washington, Riyadh, Paris and Tel Aviv.
Relations with China
Trump’s accusation that China was “exploiting” his country was a central theme of his campaign in 2016, coinciding with the pledge to strike a fair trade deal with Beijing that would help American businesses and provide jobs for Americans.
After a nearly two-year trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, Trump has only managed to reach a first step in the deal, the implementation of which has so far stalled.
At the same time, Washington and Beijing have exchanged tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods, and the outbreak of the Corona virus around the world from China has led to the deterioration of bilateral relations, reaching their levels. the lowest in decades, raising fears of a new cold war.
Washington has taken action against Beijing on several fronts: it ended Hong Kong’s status, imposed sanctions on senior officials for human rights violations, and sought to ban Chinese tech companies from operating in the United States. United.
Analysts say the Biden administration will have no choice but to maintain this firm stance, but it will likely seek to soften the tone a bit to provide an opportunity to deal with China.
On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly complained that many NATO partners have failed to meet their defense spending targets. He also questioned the viability of continuing the alliance established in 1949 at the start of the Cold War with Russia.
His criticism has led to a deterioration in relations with several European allies, but more alliance members have now increased spending to meet the 2% of GDP target.
Trump this year pledged to reduce the number of US forces in Germany, accusing Berlin of exploiting the United States while failing to fulfill its alliance obligations.
Analysts say reforming the transatlantic alliance will take time, but it should be one of the easiest tasks a Biden administration could face.
Trump pledged in his 2016 election campaign to distance himself from foreign wars and fire American soldiers from Afghanistan, which is witnessing his country’s longest war, where it is now entering its nineteenth year.
Washington began cutting back troops in Afghanistan after a deal was struck with the Taliban in February to withdraw all US forces. But that depends on stalled talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Trump also ordered the withdrawal of US forces from Syria. His aides and the military have repeatedly downplayed the importance of the decision, but the numbers have been more than halved.
When it comes to relations with North Korea, Trump surprised the world by starting unprecedented talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Although he made no progress in persuading Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, some believe its ice-melt diplomacy could be the cornerstone of any future administration.
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