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When each US presidential election is held, a question is asked in every capital city around the world; “What are the implications of this candidate’s victory for us?” While Americans are busy examining the candidates ‘best domestic policies and examining their personalities, politicians and analysts abroad are busy examining candidates’ attitudes towards foreign affairs and studying the teams of candidates. foreign policy during the election period. It is natural that all this attention is devoted to the transfer of power in the great world power, even if the election campaigns focus on national issues.
And now, after the announcement of Joe Biden’s victory as US President, attention turns to his politics and his team, with speculation about the first steps he should take when he arrives at the White House. next january. He has made clear his intention to return to the Paris climate agreement and re-establish relations with the World Health Organization, after outgoing President Donald Trump stepped down. If the Arab world questions its policies towards the region in particular, these two steps are important for the region and the world. Without serious international coordination to limit the repercussions of the “Covid 19” epidemic and coordination to deal with climate change, our collective future is threatened.
Biden’s history in the US Senate and chairmanship of the House Foreign Relations Committee means he will be interested in foreign affairs, but his time will be limited, limiting his ability to delve into the details of those policies. In addition, there is no doubt that the next US president will first be concerned about the “Covid 19” epidemic and how to cope with its economic, social and political consequences. The election results reaffirmed the extent of the divide in American society. Therefore, the new president will be concerned about home affairs for a long time. There is one reality that cannot be denied: the American people do not want to engage in new wars, nor for their country to appear at the forefront of international action. The first and final concern of the American voter is the internal situation, and there are 70 million voters who voted for Trump, and Biden and the Democrats need to take this into account when running the country.
Therefore, his choice of the foreign affairs team is extremely important, especially since it should revitalize the State Department, which is reconsidering its role under President Trump. The names of many well-known figures in democratic circles are circulating for high-level positions in the administration, headed by officials who worked in the administration of former US President Barack Obama. But US sources report that they are aware that the world has changed in recent years and that there are failures in the Obama administration’s policies, which President Obama himself admitted during the an interview with Fox News before leaving the White House, when he said Badly planned the post-Muammar Gaddafi era in Libya.
The Libyan, Syrian and Palestinian files await all the steps of the new president. But the most important will of course be the Iranian dossier and the Iranian expansion in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Democrats have made it clear that they want to strike a deal with Iran, but the question is what that deal will look like and how it will reflect on the Arab world. The answer depends on the policies that will be followed in the Arab countries which suffer from Iranian interference. For example, Biden assumed oversight of the Iraq dossier during Obama’s presidency and played a central role in the United States’ decision to support Nuri al-Maliki to take over as prime minister after the 2010 election. Although Iyad Allawi won more votes in Parliament. This historic decision changed the course of Iraq. Biden was also against intervention in Syria; Its developments after 2011 were seen as a “sectarian struggle” and not as a popular revolution. Biden made it clear in brief interventions during the election campaign that he was aware of the scale of the current Iranian expansion, but he was cautious and did not explain how he would handle this file, and whether he had fired. lessons from the past.
This explanation will depend on two factors: The first is Biden’s team, which will lead the external relations, and the second is how influential Arab capitals deal with the new administration. Regarding the first factor, there are some competent figures in Biden’s team, including Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser when he was vice president, and he and William Burns, the Assistant Secretary of State at the time, were the first to engage in secret negotiations with the Iranians. And Silivan believes it is necessary to come to an agreement with the Iranians on their nuclear program, and that was at the heart of his work. But he also believes that it is necessary to work on a parallel path to reduce Iranian interference in the region. In the event that Sullivan and Burns are stronger in the new administration, there will be opportunities for viable solutions.
I knew a number of these officials during my work in Washington as director of the Middle East office during the early period of the Obama administration. I had the opportunity to learn more about Jake Sullivan’s thinking when I enrolled at Yale University, where he was studying “American Politics and International Law”. During these lectures, he showed his precise knowledge of international law and the importance of international norms and treaties, but he also showed that he was aware of the shortcomings of some American policies, especially some that his country has followed during this century. This knowledge and experience will be important in the next period of his political career, which is expected to culminate in a high-level position in the Biden administration. There are other figures among the democratic elites who are less enthusiastic about reaching a broad agreement that includes Iranian behavior in the region, such as Anthony Blancon, the former US assistant secretary of state, and s ‘he occupies a position that affects US policy in the region, Iran will be more comfortable.
All of these issues can be seen by politicians and analysts in the Arab world, despite their weak influence over them. But what they can influence is to present concrete and strategic proposals on the new administration. Biden will seek quick fixes and will want to appear more efficient than his predecessor in finding concrete solutions. Nothing in the area is easy; This makes it difficult to find quick fixes for the Middle East, but coming up with a roadmap or charting paths for dialogue and negotiation will have a positive impact, and change can benefit all parties.
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