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After the Biden administration is almost certain to be installed on January 20, 2021, the time has come to consider the best way – by the middle of next year – for Arab countries to engage in such a way. constructive with the new US administration.
In a previous post, I presented the view that the Middle East wouldn’t be a high priority for the Biden administration, but that didn’t mean it could ignore the region. It is at a time when many Arabs fear the policies the Biden administration should pursue in the region, especially with regard to Iran and human rights issues, that Biden’s advisers made it clear that they would be at the top of the regional priorities of the new administration. Although the Middle East is losing its relative importance to the United States, relations with Arab countries are too important for Washington to sacrifice, whether for the sake of Iran or even for the sake of ideals and of the principles on which its foreign policy is based. This will have to strike a balance between its interests and the principles that govern its foreign policy and the interests of its regional allies. In this context, the Arab countries will have to contribute to achieving this balance, but in a way that guarantees their national interests.
Arab countries do not have the luxury of waiting for the stabilization of the new administration by the summer of 2021, but rather they must define the foundations and the rules for engagement with the new American administration, which will not be possible only by taking the initiative and demonstrating its ability to help find solutions, even for some of the conflicts that have contributed to it. By destabilizing the region, the United States would be happy to secure its interests. The region is hampered by conflicts and conflicts which have hampered political, economic and social progress in most Arab countries. This does not mean that this failure is only the product of these conflicts and disputes, but rather it must be recognized that the internal factors of the Arab countries bear the greatest burden of this situation. However, in light of the strong interaction between the internal and external contexts of the region, any positive measures aimed at resolving conflicts and disputes would positively affect the development of internal conditions in most Arab countries.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues, the situations in Syria, Libya and Yemen still rage, and the Nile conflict between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia still rages, while Lebanon crumbles and that Israeli, Iranian and Turkish policies in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf are still of great concern to them. Some Arab countries and others.
Faced with this complex situation, wisdom demands that Arab countries avoid moving with the Biden administration at all these levels at the same time, especially since there are already efforts underway regarding Libya, Iraq. , Yemen and the conflict on the waters of the Nile, and then it is better to allow these efforts to continue their march.
However, there are two issues that can be built on to form a starting point for constructive engagement with the new administration, namely: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Syrian crisis.
Finding a political solution to the Syrian tragedy is not only in the interests of the Arab countries, but it is the means by which the Arabs can assert their useful and constructive role in bringing stability to the region. Although Syria was not at one point high on the United States’ priorities in the region, its instability is a constant source of concern for what poses a threat to Israel’s security, especially in light of the spread of Iranian influence.
As for the Arabs, Syria is the place where the Turkish and Iranian intervention reached the maximum danger for the sovereignty of an Arab country. The longer it took to reach a political settlement, the more rooted Ankara and Tehran are in Syria. This will whet their appetite for further interventions in the Arab region. This, in turn, will negatively affect the security and stability of many Arab countries. Nonetheless, I have no doubt that there is a clear interest in transforming the relations between the Arab countries and Iran and Turkey from their current status in a way which serves the interests of all parties. This will serve the long term stability of the region.
From this point of view, the Arabs should take an initiative for a political settlement in Syria. I have summarized some ideas in this regard in articles published in this journal in December and then in June, which are summed up by proposing a comprehensive agreement requiring the Syrian government to quickly implement resolution 2254 in exchange for the return of Syria. in the Arab League and accelerates the reconstruction process since By an international arrangement based on an approach based on progressive incentives: the progressive lifting of sanctions, the progressive normalization of external relations with Syria, the progressive disbursement of reconstruction funds, in Damascus exchange taking measures to build confidence, and most importantly the political and economic reforms necessary to create a secure and stable environment for the holding of elections under the supervision of United Nations. Only then can the Arab countries begin the process of stopping the Iranian and Turkish advance in Syria, and therefore in the Arab region.
The other area in which the Arabs can help the Biden administration is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Trump administration has seriously damaged the chances of achieving the “two-state solution”, which is recognized by the Biden administration, which has given signals that it is ready to rekindle the opportunities of that solution.
Although the Trump plan is now nearly expired, there is still a possibility that Israel will take unilateral steps to implement it, especially in the weeks to come before the Biden administration takes office. Despite the steps taken by some Arab countries to establish diplomatic and economic relations with Israel, all are still determined to establish a Palestinian state on the borders of June 5, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and a just solution to the refugee issue. in accordance with United Nations resolutions.
It is time for the Palestinians to present – with Arab backing – a detailed conceptualization of a solution. In this regard, there are many ideas. In two articles in February and August of this year, some proposals were presented and Mr. Nabil Fahmy, former Foreign Minister of Egypt, presented important ideas in this regard in an article published last February. , Includes the Palestinians who present a detailed initiative based on the Arab peace plan, and includes the following: Definition of the borders of the Palestinian state, including what could be minor border adjustments to unify the villages, a formula appropriate for East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state which also addresses the issue of worship for all Relevant religions and practical arrangements, addressing the issue of Palestinian refugees, in particular Israeli responsibility in this regard, and how to ensure security Palestinians, taking into account Israel’s defense needs.
I think the conditions have become ripe for an Arab initiative to salvage the two-state solution. This is what I think the Biden administration will congratulate itself on in that it will not only help restore the process to its basic tenet: land for peace, and not peace for peace as Netanyahu promotes, but also to better manage its relations with Israel.
By proposing initiatives to address issues like these, which have always been a source of inconvenience to the United States, it will be possible to create a good platform for the Arab states to engage constructively with the United States. ‘Biden administration. It would also reduce the impression spread by the Israeli, Iranian and Turkish media that Israel has succeeded in creating a united front with some Arab countries against the Biden administration in anticipation of its policies towards Iran. Israel is able to bear the consequences of the challenge of the new administration, but Arab countries must have better alternatives to deal with the new Biden administration.
In my opinion, I do not see a congruence of interests between Arab countries and Israel in the region. There may be a rapprochement when it comes to Iran, but that does not justify the drift into the game Netanyahu has been playing for so long. It is in the interests of the Arab states to be present in any new negotiations on Iran; This can be achieved by demonstrating the ability of Arabs to work constructively to address certain American and European concerns, especially those which also serve their national interests.
Therefore; Arab countries are expected to take two initiatives in the coming weeks. The first concerns the Palestinian question and the other Syria. This is not only in their common interest, but it will help create a more positive atmosphere for constructive engagement with the new US administration.
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