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In the decades leading up to the Arab Spring revolutions, most or all Arab countries were ruled by authoritarian regimes that did not believe in the peaceful transfer of power, except in the realm of ruling families or a party, which were mostly military regimes.
The term Arab Spring is still widely circulated in the literature of Arab political forces and the Arab and international media, although these revolutions have not achieved their goals.
It has not achieved democracy and has not laid the groundwork for a peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box, with the exception of Tunisia, which pays high prices for external interventions aimed at aborting the only experience whose revolution is close to achieving its goals.
The protest movements, or the Arab Spring revolutions, have produced social, political and economic gains in several countries, in addition to violence, internal conflicts, forced displacement, mass displacement, destruction of cities and towns. infrastructure, etc.
During the two waves of the Arab Spring, the first between 2010 and 2013 and the second in 2018 and 2019, most of the Arab countries witnessed mass movements that did not lead to regime change, such as Lebanon and Iraq since 2018, and Morocco, Jordan, Mauritania and the Sultanate of Oman.
Regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen have seen a change of leadership to varying degrees, with power being transferred from Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to his deputy Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi before the group ” Ansar Allah ”(Houthi) took control of the capital, Sanaa, in 2014 and entered the country. In a civil war which remains insoluble; Due to regional and international interventions.
The burning of a young Tunisian (Mohamed Bouazizi) himself, on December 17, 2010, was perhaps just an incident which brought the scene of discontent and rejection of tyranny and deteriorating conditions life at the forefront of the interests of Tunisian citizens, to lead through professional unions a popular movement that led to change and the foundation of the era of popular revolutions. Or the revolutions of the Arab Spring.
The economic factor is not the only factor exploding popular anger against authoritarian regimes, but we must also respect human rights, freedom of expression and the struggle for dignity.
The sectarian factor has also played an important role in anti-regime protest movements in Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, in addition to Yemen and Syria.
Observers believe that social conditions and the authoritarian character of the regimes largely contributed to the spread of the mass movement to other countries, starting with Tunisia in what is known as the first wave of the Arab Spring.
This wave ended with a protest movement observed by six Iraqi governorates throughout 2012 and early 2013, dominated by the sectarian formation of a Sunni Arab majority, which failed to achieve its goals.
The religious tendency prevailed over the other slogans of the Arab Spring revolutions, indicating that the movements of political Islam in general are the effective engine to direct the paths of the protests and define their orientations and objectives.
According to observers, this poses a serious threat to authoritarian regimes and regimes that often depend on heredity in the transfer of power, which prompted them to do what was possible to abort these revolutions, through the forces of the counter-revolution, which the United Arab Emirates led in the first place, with the support of military forces.
The “counterrevolution” supported the military coup in Egypt, the forces of rebel Major General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, the Transitional Military Council in Sudan, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and others. “Enemies” of the Arab Spring revolutions.
It is clear that Saudi Arabia has supported the UAE-led counterrevolution in the Egyptian case by backing the coup of Egyptian Defense Minister Abdel Fattah El-Sisi (the current president), on July 3, 2013, and the dismissal of the elected president, Mohamed Morsi.
But the UAE-led counterrevolution and Saudi support can only be a catalyst among many factors that caused the failure of the Arab Spring revolutions in Syria and Yemen, and before them in Libya. , lest the movement demanding change spill over to the two countries, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The position of the army and security forces is seen as the decisive factor in leading the Arab Spring countries towards security and stability, as in the Tunisian and Egyptian cases until the ouster of President Morsi, or the chaos and internal conflicts as in Libya, Syria and Yemen.
If economic problems are at the root of most of what has happened in “revolutionary” countries like Tunisia, then these countries still suffer from economic problems which have increased in severity in recent years more than they do. were not before the “revolutions”.
Despite the tens of billions of dollars provided by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the Sisi regime, representing the “military” authority, has failed to restore stability to Egypt, which still suffers from the consequences of the war on “terrorism” in the Sinai Peninsula (northeast), with a sharp decline in the economic, social and human rights sectors.
Western countries are betting on the possibility of making great progress in terms of human rights and freedom of expression in countries of revolutions after the end of the cold war between the Western and Eastern camps.
He also bet that these “revolutions” were an extension of the uprisings in Eastern European countries, which overthrew dictatorial regimes allied with the former Soviet Union, and their transition to the democratic system.
In view of the atmosphere that reigns in the countries of the Arab “revolutions”, the United States, under President Donald Trump and the last four years of Barack Obama’s reign, see no harm in the return of these countries to the regimes of ‘before 2011 or even their reproduction, as in Libya and Syria. for example.
Many Arab political elites rely on the United States to establish democratic principles in the region.
But Washington does not appear interested in democracies or free speech and the peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box, except to the extent that it serves its vital interests.
Indeed, Washington can find support for authoritarian regimes, or even reproduce some of them, as guarantor of their interests, which could be exposed to real dangers if the real forces of “change” reach the centers of decision, which are the powers. expression of the aspirations of the Arab peoples and represent them.
Tunisia may be the only country to have made real progress towards democracy, after Egypt backed down with a military coup in 2013 that toppled President Morsi a year after his presidential term.
As Yemen, Syria and Libya are embroiled in long-standing internal conflicts, the three countries have emerged as a settlement arena for dozens of countries in the region and other countries around the world.
In a reading of the two waves of the Arab Spring, the Spring Revolutions failed to suppress authoritarian regimes in Bahrain, the Sultanate of Oman, Morocco, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon, despite the overthrow of governments Iraqi and Lebanese with the resignation of their presidents in 2019.
However, these revolutions succeeded in changing the ruling regimes in both Sudan and Algeria, and before them in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, while the Syrian case is an exception in both waves.
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