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The Arab world enters 2021, fraught with many crises and profound challenges. From East to West, the hotbeds of conflict are dividing and divisions are worsening. While many hope the New Year will provide opportunities to break out of the conflict tunnel, there are signs of dangers lurking in many countries.
Among the most important countries facing serious security problems:
Libya .. war at the gates or urgent peace
Libyan parties meeting in Tunisia under the auspices of the United Nations have agreed to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 24, 2021, but the process of forming a new presidential council with a separate prime minister is still at a standstill, without talk about the failure of the unification of parliament.
Likewise, the constitutional path has not been agreed and it has not yet been decided to submit the draft constitution prepared by the elected committee of the 60 to a popular referendum, nor to refer to the Constitutional Declaration or to the last constitution of the monarchy (in 1963).
These indicators do not suggest that the elections will take place before the end of 2021, despite the signing of a ceasefire between the government army and the forces of retired General Khalifa Haftar on October 23.
And recently, Haftar has generally mobilized his militia near the lines of contact in the governorates of Sirte (450 km east of Tripoli) and Jufrah (300 km south of Sirte). For their part, government forces have sent military reinforcements to the area, indicating that the situation risks exploding if the military balance is upset and the political solution is not accelerated.
Somalia .. Will it remain alone in the face of “Al-Shabab”?
Somalia faces the challenge of holding the 2021 legislative elections, which it did not hold as planned in early December 2020.
The government and parties have not agreed on how to conduct them in a way that would ensure their integrity, and there is no confirmation that a general election will also be held in February.
The US decision to withdraw most of its troops from Somalia in early 2021, estimated at 700 troops, would double the country’s security challenges.
The US decision coincided with the withdrawal of 3,000 Ethiopian peacekeepers from Somalia last November, following the outbreak of war in Tigray.
There are also plans to reduce the 17,000 African Union peacekeepers next year, given the lack of funding provided by the United Nations.
The biggest threat to the government is represented by the “Mujahedin Youth Movement”, which controls around 20% of the country, especially the south and center.
Al-Shabab is estimated to have 10,000 members and could take advantage of the decline in foreign military support to the government to step up attacks and expand its areas of control, while obstructing the organization of elections.
Iraq … a battleground between Washington and Tehran
The conflict between Washington and Tehran has intensified since the murder of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in December, and before the murder of Force Commander Quds Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020 near Baghdad airport.
On December 20, the American embassy in Baghdad was subjected to missile strikes that left no casualties and Washington accused Iran of being behind the attack with one of its arms in Iraq.
The US military command in the region insisted the missile attack was almost certainly carried out by an Iranian-backed rebel group, which Tehran has denied.
The departure of President Donald Trump from the White House on January 20, 2021, will ease tensions with Iran, especially if President-elect Joe Biden continues the policy of dialogue with Tehran, to resolve the crisis of its nuclear dossier, and this may make the Iraqis breathe a sigh of relief.
But if Biden has pursued a policy of escalation with Tehran, or if Trump implicated him in a war before he leaves, Iraq will be the first to pay the price for this clash in 2021.
The US-Iranian conflict in Iraq is not the only concern of the government in Baghdad, as ISIS is still active in the center of the country and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara sees as a movement. terrorist, is active in the north.
Syria .. 10 years of suffering
The intensity of the fighting has diminished due to the Turkish-Russian agreements, but the Syrian regime is expected to launch an attack, with Russian backing, against the opposition strongholds in Idlib.
About 10 years have passed since the outbreak of the revolution, and so far there is no indication of a political solution that meets the demands for democracy, freedom and a decent life that the revolutionaries raised in March 2011.
Politically, the Syrian regime seeks to organize presidential elections in 2021, the legitimacy of which is not recognized by the opposition, especially since it has not entered into a comprehensive agreement guaranteeing its integrity.
Sudan .. army confronts unruly Ethiopian militias
Khartoum faces a new border challenge with Ethiopia that could worsen in 2021, although its roots are ancient, as militias from the neighboring Ethiopian region of Amhara occasionally take over farmland in the region. Gedaref governorate in eastern Sudan.
At the end of 2020, the Sudanese army intervened and recovered all this land which had been captured by Ethiopian militias 26 years ago in the region of Fashaqa in Gedaref.
Ethiopian armed groups typically resort to guerrilla warfare against the Sudanese army, whose members were recently ambushed at the borders, so it is not unlikely that these militias will resume their attacks in disputed areas.
Despite the demarcation of the border between Ethiopia and Sudan since 1902, the Ethiopian Amhara tribes still regard the farmlands on the other side of the border as their own, especially since they lack fertile land, which renews this dispute.
However, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed his government’s determination to dry up the hotbed of disputes and end the clashes in areas bordering Sudan for good, a day after the conclusion of the political committee meeting on border issues. between the two countries.
What may exacerbate the instability at the borders is the influx of tens of thousands of Ethiopian refugees into Sudan due to the repercussions of the Tigray War (November 2020), as well as the Renaissance Dam crisis and of its complications.
Sudan faces, in addition to the border crisis with Ethiopia, a border dispute with South Sudan in the oil-rich region of Abyei, in addition to a third border dispute with Egypt in the triangle Halayeb overlooking the Red Sea.
These countries are not the only ones entering the new year, overwhelmed by the wounds of the past year and with hope of an imminent end to their crises. There are other Arab countries which suffer from conflicts of varying intensity which share the same sufferings and hopes.
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