The year 2021 … will it be the year of decomposition and breakthroughs?

The new year (2021) has entered and the Arab world is going through relatively better conditions than it was a year ago, or maybe the last turn out of the tunnel. News about vaccines, political events, talks on reconciliation and a Gulf summit, a breakthrough in the Libyan dossier, the formation of the new Yemeni government, the improvement of oil prices, the recovery of the economy and other news indicates an atmosphere of cautious optimism.
The situation of the past year, led by the Corona outbreak, was grim, gloomy and unprecedented in the world, and our Arab world is one of them, and yet the scene was not without chaos, wars, crises, conflicts and conflicts of regional and international extension. Or treat it only one way.
There are expectations that run for the worse, and there are opposing readings that see breakthroughs imminent, albeit slow or maturing on low heat, given that there is a willingness to resolve outstanding files, including the Gulf, regional and international. There are those who expect new features from the political scene, whether at regional or global level, which is not excluded. However, the growing risk of political and economic confrontations between the great powers still exists, and can push towards military conflicts, not to mention the repercussions of climate change. Political, economic and environmental risks have been exacerbated in the past due to the decline in support for multilateralism which is governed by specific rules and controls, especially with the presence of the strong man phenomenon as we have seen. in Washington, Moscow and Beijing, but it seems the picture may differ with the departure of Trump and the arrival of Biden who has a different philosophy based on international cooperation. Isolation.
The year 2020 has been stormy and different and has turned into an open collision between the importance of cooperation and collective action and the populism that has entered the political and social lexicon and from the front door, and despite the departure of its owner, it will remain a thought as long as it has followers and followers.
The year 2021 and global economic concerns have arrived as they are, if not heightened, and closing the gap between rich and poor widens and the attempt to reduce the role of governments through privatization and expansion of free trade is still marginal, and tackling the effects of information technology has become a dream.
The regional situation is characterized by political fluidity and accelerating change, and anyone who contemplates the interactions of the immediate political map of the Arab world feels that there are attempts to perpetuate the series of separation, division and fragmentation in Syria, in Yemen, Iraq and Libya. This confirms the reality of the dilemma these countries face due to Iranian interference and Turkish incursions in light of an unknown international and international silence. Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, noting that they have some common denominators in one way or another, in addition to their involvement in ax politics, as evidenced by the movement of Iranian militias in these countries ; Hezbollah, the Houthis and the “popular mobilization” forces are terrorists trying to impose a fait accompli. Fortification of Arab identity and nationalism in authorized Arab countries has become a necessity to counter Iranian influence. Because there is no real loyalty in these countries to Wilayat al-Faqih in Iran or the dream of the Ottoman Caliphate, but for purely material and economic reasons and advantages. It should be noted that the Saudi diplomatic decision to face the projects being worked out in the region represents an important moment in the confrontation battle. Iran and Turkey have invaded and occupied Arab land, and there is nothing left that they have done in terms of gain, exploitation, destruction, recruitment, looting and murder in all Arab lands they have reached.
Tehran and Ankara have contributed to the consolidation of the ideological tendency, so that we are witnessing sectarian conflicts, identity killings, sectarian conflicts and hatred of the other in the Arab countries that we have witnessed last year, and it is a manifestation of backwardness which tends to a pattern which is not in harmony with the language of the civilized world.
But I wonder if things will get worse? The truth is that the fundamental foundations of the unity of an attractive and productive state in our Arab world cannot be established until the symptoms of weakness of the development project are addressed and the state of citizenship is not addressed. not established. On the one hand, and on the other hand, confronting extremism and radical groups remains an absolute necessity to protect our countries and the world. There are other challenges that lie in the Iranian expansionist project, the Turkish intervention, the fluctuating oil prices, the US feuds with China, Russia’s collision with the West and the frightening cyber-confrontation.
The rules of the political game have also changed or are in the process of being changed, which means a new positioning of international politics in the region. The reality of the current situation in the world demands the need to resolve disputes in order to achieve common denominators and a bright future for humanity. With the return in force of the United States in the region, and with the presence of Russia and the Chinese motivation, many questions arise on the path of relations and the resolution of files; This means that real change will occur, whether it is escalation or calm, and we do not know the knowledge of certainty, and the readings and speculations will remain until the moment. come and it is he who will guarantee the answer. What is important is that the world unites in order to face the dangers and challenges of the new reality which affect its security and stability.

* Extract from “Asharq Al-Awsat”