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In light of indications that the severity of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic is declining around the world and the announcement of virtual control of it in many countries around the world, the Arab world is considered to be least affected by the virus itself and most affected by its repercussions, as the Arab world has not witnessed a major epidemic of the virus. According to the World Health Organization, more than 111,000 new cases of coronavirus and more than 5,500 deaths have been recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Which comprises 22 countries and stretches from Morocco to Pakistan with the exception of Algeria, while the number of injured in the world exceeded two million and deaths 140,000, however the measures followed by the Arab countries have been the stricter, cruel and influential on all political, economic and social levels, which will leave dangerous sweeping effects more dangerous than Corona Virus itself.
Several Arab regimes have exploited the epidemic To get rid of demonstrations and protest movementsBy imposing emergency laws and exceptional provisions, but the Arab uprisings during the second wave of the Arab Spring which revolted against the authoritarian situation, the state of corruption, widespread poverty and misery, you will find reasons protests, taking advantage of the poor way in which governments have handled the crisis. It looks like the Arab uprisings will pick up steam when the Corona virus is gone, and some of them haven’t even waited. In Lebanon, protests returned, as protesters stressed that “the sit-ins will continue,” stressing that “the revolution is not over,” and signs of the return of protests are evident in Iraq and Algeria.
In this context, American researcher specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, Frederick, wonders whether the Corona virus will trigger a second Arab Spring. In an article in the US New York Times, it is likely that the outbreak of the Corona epidemic will highlight the inability of ruling systems in the Middle East, and he commented that any rapid public health response and economic can strengthen the authoritarian rule of these regimes, but not indefinitely. He believed that a crucial lesson learned from the 2011 Arab uprisings and the protests that erupted last year is that without more comprehensive governance, less corruption and more economic justice, technocratic and coercive tools are just measures. temporary, as the virus will challenge the capacities of seemingly stable governments. What makes this shock in the Middle East different and more intense is that the usual firefighting teams (a bailout of Gulf states, international organizations, or superpowers) may not come like them. were previously. The leaders of the Arab world are alone.
The harsh Arab authoritarian measures to limit the spread of Corona have resulted in the loss of livelihoods of millions of workers, many economic sectors such as tourism and others have been destroyed, and workers’ remittances have ceased , which can fuel unrest and chaos, and wealthy Gulf countries whose budgets depend on oil revenues will find themselves unable to achieve the well-being or usual services of their people, and they will not be able to help other regimes. authoritarian with the collapse of oil prices. According to “Economist” magazine, Middle Eastern rulers will use an iron fist and repression to counter the effects of Corona and the collapse in oil prices.
The Arab world will surely turn to Authoritarian situation doubledHe realizes that a wave of unrest and chaos is inevitably to come, and so he invests the time of the epidemic to restore political arrangements and authoritarian tasks, and he conducts trainings and conducts various experiments at all. political, legal, media, security and military levels, depending on its internal forces. Israeli writer and politician Ksenia Svetlova had previously warned that “a new Middle East would emerge from the Corona virus crisis”. Svetlova, a former member of the Israeli Knesset, said in an article in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper: “It is certain that the Middle East will change as a result of the virus, as regimes fall, infrastructure crumbles and that chaos will prevail. ” And she believed that governments in the Middle East are unable to endure the turmoil that threatens the collapse of the entire world economy.
The British Economist magazine pointed out that the drop in oil prices due to the spread of Corona and the quota war between Russia and Saudi Arabia would reduce the budgets of countries in the region, which means it won’t there is not a lot of money to “bribe the people”.
The Middle East will change, with systems collapsing and chaos reigning due to the economic crisis that will follow the spread of the Corona virus. According to Eric Mandel of the Washington Post, “The Corona virus is changing the way of life in the Middle East, like everywhere else; but American foreign policy experts know that we cannot lose sight of this region, especially with the almost certain fact that devastation will prevail. After the outbreak of Covid-19, when the severity of the crisis abates, the virus may have destroyed the stability of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and the collapse of their societies and economies. This will directly affect our national security interests.
All forecasts and predictions about the fate of the post-Corona Arab world seem pessimistic, as Michael Horvitz and Nick Grinsted of the “Daily Beast” website have said that one of the effects of the post-Corona virus in the Middle East is that the new chaos will prevail there. Conflicts in the region for some time have been temporarily frozen due to the spread of the virus, but the conflicts will not go away. The coronavirus is not a big equation and it will not lead to the end of rivalries and wars. Like an earthquake, it exposes and expands the fundamental weakness of states that were not more prepared to deal with it, and as such, it exacerbates the inequalities that exist in the region. Much like deadly post-crisis shocks, collapsing oil prices will drain the budgets of countries that base their economies on oil resources. The authors point out that desperate people resort to desperate methods, just as desperate regimes resort to more repressive methods.
Post-Corona scenarios in the Arab world do not indicate anything positive, as experts paint a dire picture. According to Dr Eric Mandel, director of the Middle East Political Information Network, the outbreak of the Corona virus in countries of the Middle East will likely be followed by unprecedented consequences, unrest and challenges, calling on US officials to start thinking and preparing for it. Mandel added, in an article on the US website “The Hill”, that “the epidemic is likely to destroy the stability of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and their dysfunctional economies, which will directly affect the national security interests of United States.”
In sum, there is a pessimistic outlook that prevails in the expectations for the future of the Arab world after the Corona epidemic crisis, where predictions of disorder and chaos prevail, and the decline of Arab regimes towards more. totalitarianism and a doubly oppressive repression. delegation Foreign Policy magazine warned The US government argues that self-isolation may curb the Corona virus, but will fuel extremism around the world. Arab authoritarian regimes have started to reconstruct post-Corona measures and arrangements to consolidate their survival, and the values of democracy, liberalism and individual freedoms are already lost in the Arab world, A distant dreamBut what is certain is that Arab authoritarianism will not praise false stability, as the Corona crisis has given more reason for a new wave of Arab Spring uprisings.
All published articles express the opinion of their authors and do not necessarily express an opinion
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