[ad_1]
The world today lives at the mercy of the emerging corona virus, which has crippled world trade and forced half of the world’s population to stay at home, and this epidemic appears capable of restructuring international relations and even threatening governments.
About two weeks ago, the United Nations called for a ceasefire in conflict-ravaged countries to help fight Covid-19, but its Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, warned on Friday that “the worst is coming, ”while the impact of the outbreak is still unclear on the region’s conflicts.
Syria
The first official infection with the virus was recorded in Syria, almost two weeks after the start of a ceasefire in Idlib (northwest), according to a Russian-Turkish agreement that ended an attack in large scale launched by Damascus for three months. .
Three million people live in the area where the armistice is in effect and includes large parts of Idlib and its surroundings, but the resilience of the truce is unclear.
It appears that fears over the virus’s ability to spread like wildfire across the country which has been drained by nine years of war has stopped the sporadic attacks on multiple axes.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March witnessed the massacre of 103 civilians, the lowest monthly civilian death toll since the start of the conflict in 2011.
Most likely, the ability of the various local authorities, from the central government of Damascus to the Kurdish Autonomous Administration (northeast) and the coalition of factions led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra) in Idlib, to do facing the dangers of the virus will test the credibility of all three parties.
“The epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is capable and that all regions should come back in its possession”, declared the researcher who follows the Syrian question, Fabrice Balanche.
The pandemic and the global mobilization it imposes could accelerate the departure of US forces from Syria and neighboring Iraq, which could create a vacuum that ISIS, which was stripped of its “caliphate” there a year old, could exploit to relaunch his attacks.
Whose
In Yemen, where no casualties have yet been recorded, both parties to the conflict, the government and the Houthi rebels, have expressed support for Guterres’ call for an end to the fighting.
However, the rare glimmer of hope in the five years of conflict did not last long, with Saudi Arabia intercepting two missiles in the skies of Riyadh and a border town, which the Houthis claimed to have launched.
Saudi Arabia, which has led a military coalition supporting the government since 2015, retaliated with strikes on Houthi-held Sanaa.
Although talks have stalled on several occasions, UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations with the aim of achieving a nationwide ceasefire.
The Covid-19 virus outbreak in Yemen will worsen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. And if it reaches the poorest countries of the Arabian Peninsula, it threatens a humanitarian catastrophe.
Unless a truce opens the way for the delivery of the necessary aid, the fate of the Yemeni people will be unknown, in a country with a collapsed health system, clean water is scarce and 24 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.
The taxi driver in the western coastal city of Hodeidah warns Muhammad Omar that if the virus spreads, “people will die in the streets and bodies will rot in the open.”
Libya
Like Yemen, both parties to the Libyan conflict hailed the UN call for a ceasefire, but quickly resumed hostilities and exchanged accusations of violating the truce, after the bombing of Ain Zara. , south of the capital, Tripoli.
Guterres expressed regret at the existence of a “big gap between words and deeds”, listing the two countries among a group of other countries.
Turkey recently played a direct military role in the conflict tearing Libya apart, in support of the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord in the face of forces loyal to Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who used the east of the country as a base. and derives its legitimacy from the House of Representatives elected in 2014.
Balanche does not rule out the possibility that the accelerated Western withdrawal from the various conflicts in the region will reduce Turkey’s support for the national accord government.
This would be in the first place in the interest of Haftar, who launched an attack a year ago to control the capital, turning into a civil war of attrition, especially since he enjoys the support of Russia, from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Western countries will be severely affected by the emergence of the Corona virus epidemic, not only to change the focus of their military resources away from foreign conflicts, but also to stop playing the role of mediator in peace talks. .
An International Crisis Group report cited European officials as saying that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya are no longer receiving high-level attention due to the outbreak.
Iraq
Iraq is not currently witnessing a full-scale conflict, but it remains vulnerable to ISIS attacks in some areas and the scene of US-Iranian tug of war, which almost led to an open conflict earlier this year.
Although the two forces are among the countries most affected by the Covid-19 virus, there is no indication that they are heading towards a reduction in the duel in the Iraqi arena while pursuing a policy of deterrence and threats.
With the departure of almost all non-American forces from the ranks of the international coalition against ISIS and the evacuation of military bases, American soldiers are now regrouping, with fewer and fewer bases.
Washington has seized the opportunity to deploy Patriot missile batteries for air defense, in a move that raises fears of further escalation with Iran, whose armed groups are accused of carrying out missile strikes on US bases in Iraq.
Source link
