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Goldman Commodities Research has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast by $ 10 for the second and third quarters of 2021, indicating lower expectations for inventories, higher cost margins for resumption of upstream activities and flows speculative.
The US bank expects Brent prices to hit $ 70 per barrel in the second quarter, from $ 60 it previously forecast, and to hit $ 75 in the third quarter from $ 65 previously.
“We believe that the return to balance at this faster rate during what was to be dark winter days will be followed by a growing deficit this spring as demand recovers at a faster rate than offer, paving the way for a rare metropolis. market, “Goldman said in a note dated Sunday. According to” Reuters. “
The bank now expects global oil demand to reach 100 million barrels per day by the end of July 2021, compared to its previous forecast from August 2021.
Oil prices rose on Monday as the slow return of US crude production, which was curtailed by the freeze in time, raised supply concerns as demand recovers.
Goldman predicts the freezing weather in Texas will cause a global deficit of 1.5 million barrels per day this month and cut production by 0.2 million barrels per day in March due to damaged infrastructure and other factors.
Goldman said an agreement to increase production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies at the next meeting in March would not have a downward impact on prices as supplies are already late.
The bank expects a quota increase of 0.5 million bpd in August.
UBS last week raised its Brent price forecast to $ 68 per barrel for the second half of this year.
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