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Istanbul / Anatolia
Libya: a war at the gates or an urgent peace
– Somalia .. Will it remain alone in the face of “Al-Shabab”?
Iraq … between Washington’s hammer and Tehran’s anvil
Syria .. 10 years of pain and hope
Sudan … facing unruly Ethiopian militias
The Arab world enters the year 2021, fraught with crises and challenges, from the east to the Maghreb, the hotbeds of conflict are divided and divisions aggravate its wounds, and many hope that the new year will provide opportunities to emerge from it. long tunnel of conflicts, while indications point to dangers lurking in many countries.
Among the most important of these countries facing serious security problems: Libya, Somalia, Syria, Iraq and Sudan.
** Libya .. war at the gates or urgent peace
Libyan parties meeting in Tunisia under the auspices of the United Nations have agreed to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 24, 2021, but the process of forming a new presidential council with a separate prime minister is still at a standstill, without talk about the failure to unify parliament.
Likewise, the constitutional path has not been agreed, and it has not yet been decided to submit the draft constitution prepared by the elected committee of the 60 to a popular referendum, or to refer to the Constitutional Declaration or to the last constitution during the monarchy. (1963).
These indicators do not suggest that the elections will take place before the end of 2021, despite the ceasefire agreement between the government army and the militias of the coup leader Khalifa Haftar, signed on October 23.
However, the return of Haftar to mobilize his militia near the lines of contact in the governorates of Sirte (450 km east of Tripoli) and Jufrah (300 km south of Sirte), and the sending of military reinforcements by the Government army in the region, is another indication that the situation is likely to explode if the military balance is unbalanced and if the political solution is not accelerated.
** Somalia .. Will she remain alone in the face of “Al-Shabab”?
In 2021, the country faces the challenge of organizing legislative elections, which it failed to organize on the date scheduled for December 1, 2020.
The government and parties have not agreed on how to conduct it in a way that guarantees its integrity, and there is no confirmation that a general election will also be held in February.
The decision by the United States of America to withdraw most of its troops from Somalia in early 2021, estimated at 700 troops, would double the country’s security challenges.
The US move coincided with the withdrawal of 3,000 Ethiopian peacekeepers from Somalia last November, following the outbreak of war in Tigray.
There are also plans to reduce the 17,000 African Union peacekeepers next year, given the lack of funding provided by the United Nations.
And the biggest threat to the government is the “youth movement” which controls around 20% of the country, especially in the south and center, which is estimated to have 10,000 members, and could benefit from declining military support. external to government. to increase its attacks and expand its areas of control, while obstructing the organization of elections.
** Iraq … between Washington’s hammer and Tehran’s anvil
The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran since the murder of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in December, and before that the murder of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020 near the airport in Baghdad, will turn Iraq into a battleground between the two sides in 2021.
On December 20, the US Embassy in Baghdad was hit by a missile strike that left no casualties, and Washington accused Iran of being behind the attack with one of its arms in Iraq.
The US military command in the region stressed that the missile attack “was almost certainly carried out by an Iranian-backed rebel group,” which Tehran denied.
The departure of US President Donald Trump from the White House on January 20, 2021, could ease tensions with Iran, especially if President-elect Joe Biden pursues a policy of dialogue with Tehran, to resolve the crisis over its nuclear issue, and it may cause the Iraqis to breathe a sigh of relief.
But if Biden has pursued a policy of escalation with Tehran, or if Trump implicated him in a war before he leaves, Iraq will be the first to pay the price for this clash in 2021.
It is not only the US-Iranian conflict in Iraq that troubles the government in Baghdad, because the terrorist organization “ISIS” is still active in the center of the country, in addition to the security threat posed by the terrorist organization “PKK “in the north of the country.
** Syria .. 10 years of pain and hope
In 2021, 10 years have passed since the outbreak of his revolution against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and the intensity of the fighting has diminished due to the Turkish-Russian agreements. However, the Syrian regime is expected to launch an attack with Russia. support for opposition strongholds in Idlib.
In addition, the border areas with Turkey from which the “SDF” terrorist militias have not withdrawn could also witness an escalation, especially since the Syrian national army launched a military attack on the region at the end of 2020. of Ain Issa (north).
The Syrians are waiting whether Biden will continue to withdraw US forces from Syria, or seek to support the “SDF”, which refuses to disengage from the “PKK”.
Politically, the Syrian regime is seeking to organize presidential elections in 2021, the legitimacy of which is not recognized by the opposition, especially since it has not entered into a comprehensive agreement guaranteeing its integrity.
** Sudan .. in the face of unruly Ethiopian militias
Khartoum faces a new border challenge with Ethiopia that could worsen in 2021, although its roots run long, as militias from Ethiopia’s neighboring Amhara region occasionally grab farmland in the governorate of Gedaref in eastern Sudan.
At the end of 2020, the Sudanese army intervened and reclaimed all of this land that had been seized by Ethiopian militias in the area of Al-Fashaqa in Al-Qadarif, some 26 years ago.
Ethiopian armed groups generally resort to guerrilla warfare against the Sudanese army, a number of whom were recently killed in a border ambush, so it is not unlikely that these militias will resume their attacks in disputed areas.
Despite the demarcation of the border between Ethiopia and Sudan since 1902, the Ethiopian Amhara tribes still regard the farmlands across the border as their own, especially since they lack fertile land, which renews this dispute.
But Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed his government’s determination to dry up the hotbed of disputes and end the clashes in areas bordering Sudan for good, a day after the conclusion of the political committee meeting on the issues. borders between the two countries.
And what may worsen border instability, tens of thousands of Ethiopian refugees have flocked to Sudan due to the fallout from the Tigray War (November 2020), as well as the Renaissance Dam crisis and its complications. .
In addition to the border crisis with Ethiopia, there is a border dispute with South Sudan in the oil-rich region of Abyei, and a third border dispute with Egypt in the Halayeb triangle overlooking the Red Sea.
These countries are not the only ones entering the new year, weighed down by the wounds of the past year and carrying with them the hope of an imminent end to their crises. There are other Arab countries that suffer from conflicts of varying intensity and share the same hopes.
The news published on the official page of the Anadolu agency, is an abbreviation of the part of the news that is presented to subscribers via the streaming system (HAS). To subscribe to the agency, please contact the following link.
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