Corona virus: China faces mutated Delta, who will win the battle?

Although there have only been a few hundred cases, which is a low number for a country of 1.4 billion people, many people are worried about the appearance of the mutant in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan.

Authorities have taken unusual measures such as examining millions, and sometimes more than once, closing towns and banning traffic between certain areas.

What China has done, experts call the zero tolerance or complete elimination strategy, and it’s not the only one using it, as other countries like Australia, New Zealand and Singapore follow the same approach.

But the astonishing speed at which the mutation spread has also raised questions about whether the approach is effective against the strains most likely to spread.

Experts noted that there were already signs of people abandoning their usual vigil before the Nanjing incident and that there had been several small-scale outbreaks of the virus in Quang Dong and along the borders with Russia and Myanmar.

Wearing masks is less common than at the start of the pandemic and mass gatherings are common again. More than 2,000 people attended a theatrical performance in the tourist town of Zhangjiangyi, Hunan province, and the event is now considered the epicenter of a widespread virus outbreak.

State media also noted “significant shortcomings” in the procedures followed at Nanjing Airport.

Officials believe the cleaners who cleaned the plane did not follow the rules required to prevent the virus and admitted the flight was cleared to land, although it was repeatedly prevented due to the presence of people infected with the virus on board.

Hong Kong University virologist Jin Dongyan says the rapid transition from a state of detente to severe lockdown is clear evidence of a common governance problem in China where there is often very little room for difference. .

He told the BBC: “We have the old adage, ‘Kill it when you catch it, and chaos ensues when you let it go. The Chinese style is too extreme.'”

Meanwhile, some are concerned about the effectiveness of Chinese vaccines against the virus after authorities revealed that many cases of the virus in Nanjing were from fully vaccinated people.

And health authorities have reassured public opinion, as they plan to give reminders. There is no vaccine that can prevent infection with Covid, “but currently vaccines can limit the spread of all strains of the virus,” said Shao Yiming of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

China has already administered more than 1.7 billion doses of the vaccine but has not disclosed how many people have been fully vaccinated.

And unlike other countries that have opened their doors after a massive mass vaccination campaign, China does not appear ready to change the way it handled the recent delta mutant outbreak, experts say.

“The lack of confidence in their vaccines seems to justify the continuation of this strategy,” Professor Yanzhong Huang, senior researcher in global health at the United States Council on Foreign Relations, told the BBC.

A recent Chinese Global Times editorial dismissed the idea of ​​a British-style reopening, saying it was “almost politically inconceivable” as it would entail “unimaginable social costs and suffering”, calling instead for a “zero- Dynamic Covid “approaches with controllable windows to the outside world.

But China’s chief medical expert Zhang Wenhong acknowledged that the recent outbreak “reminds us once again that the virus is still present.”

“Whether we like it or not, there will always be risks ahead,” he said, adding that among other things, China should “promote a return to normalcy while protecting its citizens from fear of the virus”.

It may not be easy to switch to what experts are calling a leniency strategy that focuses on reducing deaths rather than infections.

One of the biggest challenges the authorities face, Zhang hinted, is how to convince the Chinese downpours at the risk of accepting it.

Professor Huang explains, “There is the very painful experience they had during the first wave of the virus outbreak where they saw what happened in Wuhan as their health systems were crippled. by the number of cases of infection. And if the country reopens, they fear that the Chinese health system will manage to cope. “A new wave of viruses, especially in rural areas.

Professor Jin said the way the government media portrayed the virus had also fueled this fear, with some Chinese media describing “the outbreak in India as if it was the end of the world and the situation in the UK and the United Kingdom. United States was like hell ”. .

There is also the problem of losing face.

Prof Huang said the success of China’s’ zero Covid ‘approach during the first wave of the virus outbreak has given the Chinese government the opportunity to’ claim that this approach is superior to the approach. Westerner who failed last year to contain the virus and even to claim the superiority of the Chinese political system. “

“If China starts to abandon its approach and turn to the Western approach, it will practically recognize the validity of the Western approach which was previously mocked by China.”

With relatively few deaths and an economic recovery, some in China might not feel the need to change the current approach.

But the “zero Covid” strategy also has its long-term risks.

Nancy Gicker, professor of bioethics at the University of Washington School of Medicine, points out that the massive shutdowns affect the poor the most and also affect the long-term mental health of the population.

Intervals : “If China does not change fast enough, the effects will be more severe at all levels of society.” She called for a more nuanced approach, such as more local closings and prioritizing certain groups, such as allowing schools to stay open while gyms and restaurants remain closed.

Professor Huang also warned of China’s long-term image problem as other countries prepare to reopen their doors. Australia and Singapore, which are following the same path as China, recently announced new plans when their vaccination rates hit 80% of the population.

Professor Gicker said the world will eventually split into two groups: one that continues to follow the zero Covid strategy and the other that has moved on to easing restrictions.

“But eventually, we may have no other choice but to live with the presence of the virus in the post-epidemic phase where deaths are decreasing, but the virus can reappear every year like a cold”, a- she explained.

“And if this is true, China will have to live with it.”