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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Egyptian economy will continue to improve over the coming period, but is concerned about pressure from rising oil prices on the public budget and the exit of some foreign investments. In its report on the results of the third review of Egypt 's economic program, which was released on Thursday, and obtained a copy, Masrawy, macroeconomic conditions in Egypt continued to improve during the year. fiscal year 2017-2018, while reducing the fiscal and external deficit. The IMF added that the improvement in economic conditions was supported by the IMF
The IMF mission conducted a third review of the economy last May and announced an agreement with the Egyptian government on the disbursement of the fourth tranche of the loan from Egypt, totaling $ 2 billion.
Egypt received the fourth tranche of the Fund loan and Central Bank accounts declined in the first week of this year.
The Fund expects growth in the near future, supported by the recovery of tourism and the increase in natural gas production. The current account deficit to less than 3% of GDP, and the increase in cash reserves to cover 7 months of imports.
The IMF expects the GDP growth rate to increase to 5.5% this year compared to 5.2% for 2017-2018, the Egyptian economy has recorded a growth rate of 4.2% between 2016 and 2017 against 4.3% in 2015 and 2016.
The IMF forecast a temporary increase in inflation during the current fiscal year, Increase the price of fuel and from electricity, saying that "the position of monetary policy seems appropriate to contain the second wave of this increase." [196590] 02] The IMF has recommended that the Central Bank of Egypt continue to tighten its monetary policy in order to contain the inflationary effects of recent reform measures.
The government announced on June 16 that oil prices were rising between 17.4% and 66.7% Electricity prices as of July 1st, which contributed to the return of inflation rates for the first time in 10 months last June.
The annual rate of inflation in June was 13.8% for the total of the republic against 11.5% in 4 months. 19659002] The effect of rising fuel prices on inflation in the cities appeared more than for the entire republic, district The monthly inflation rate in the cities in June was 3.5% and annualized 14.4% against 11.4% in May
The Fund expects a sharp decline in public debt in response to financial reforms and strong growth.
In the transformation of capital flows in recent months abroad, with the tightening of global financial policy and withdrawal of investors from large-scale emerging markets.
The investment bank Faros, predicts in a research note published Wednesday, Between 3 and 4 billion dollars in the second quarter
Foreign investment in treasury bills portfolio rose to approximately $ 23.1 billion at the end of March.
The IMF said that high oil prices around the world are putting pressure on the public budget "which necessitates greater adjustments of domestic fuel prices to reach a cost price."
The IMF warned that the deterioration of the security situation in Egypt could disrupt the remarkable recovery of tourism.
Can dictate what has been achieved by the economic reform program, noting that the government is engaged
The IMF expects to overtake the Petroleum Products Bill in the last fiscal year, its goal given the high fuel prices.
According to the Fund, the deficit should reach $ 1 billion International bonds or total reserves.
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