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Harmony – Follow up
The president of the Jeddah Astronomical Society, the engineer Majid Abu Zahra, said that some websites and social media broadcast information attributed to NASA according to which the diameter of the asteroid (2010 GD37) of 1 26 km would hit the ground in December.
NASA has issued no warning and the asteroid (GD37) has rated the Torino scale for the risk of collision between asteroids and comets at the zero level, so the asteroid represents a danger that must be at level (V) to represent a concern for the world. .
According to Abu Zahra, the best orbital data is that the asteroid will fall outside the orbit of Mars or slightly inside of it in December, but that it will be on the opposite side of Earth from the same date, if all the telescopes of the world were asteroids. Now especially the new Early Warning System (Atlas), which gives a warning time a year before the collision of an asteroid diameter of one kilometer or more with a resolution of up to 100%. There is therefore no risk of collision of this asteroid on Earth and that it is likely to turn around the asteroid will be stable for millions of years.
"You must know that every year, many asteroids are on the list of" potential hazards. "There are currently 39 asteroids in 2019, the smallest is the asteroid (EK68 2008), which has a diameter of four meters and the largest (2010 GD37) 1.26 kilometers ".
"It may sound scary, but in reality, it's different." Asteroids are at zero level, which means that their collision probability is too low to be zero, Asteroids in the "potential danger" list are regularly removed from the list after a later observation. More than 2,000 asteroids have already been removed, so the most likely scenario is to remove as many as 39 asteroids from this list. "
"From time to time, a very small asteroid can be traced and predicted when it will reach the atmosphere of the Earth," Abu Zahra said. "It's just a brilliant fireball that has crossed the sky many times before, but some are as sudden as in the skies of Russia in 2013.
"We know that 95% of asteroids have a diameter of at least one kilometer and that most of them do not pose a threat to the Earth." However, an asteroid of this magnitude called DA 1950 has a chance to hit the Earth in 2880,, while there It is highly unlikely that the asteroids of the remaining 5% of this magnitude will have a chance to collide with our planet during this century, or even centuries, once its orbits are well known.
"We already know all the asteroids of a diameter of 10 km or more and we will not touch any of them for thousands of years, In the worst case scenario, this means that one of the asteroids in the remaining 5% is in a collision course with the Earth and collides with us a year after its discovery, or there may be a comet from one kilometer, but this is unlikely. The cycle of this magnitude is 95% and comets with the longest orbital period are very rare and present no risk according to current data. "
He stressed that it was necessary to know that the dome of the sky was continuously monitored and 24 hours a day thanks to many observatories scattered around the world, in search of large asteroids unknown, likely to damage our planet and determine its way into space in the near future. The NEO Observatory, known as the "Space Guard", detects these objects, determines their physical nature and predicts their trajectory to determine if there may be a danger to our planet.
"Even today, there is no real threat, if it is that the meteorites constantly fall in the form of random annual or random shale showers, in addition to the combustion of small asteroids in the atmosphere, In addition, we have not been hit by a one kilometer asteroid since the time of the Neanderthal man 400,000 years ago. "
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