The global economy is entering "recovery" .. The next "worst"



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It showed Report on American Jobs The number of people entering the labor market in February did not exceed 20,000, while the number of jobs expected was about 160,000.

The sharp drop in employment came in February following the sharp decline in Chinese freight traffic United States, Which is described as "commercial stagnation".

The drop in shipments was approximately 20.7%, 5% higher than the forecast 5%.

Signs of a sharp negative change in US growth have been so strong that some economists now believe that the next move of the Fed will be a reduction. Interest rate Rather than increase it, even though annual wage growth, the main driver of inflation, has reached its highest level since 2009.

Chinese figures reveal the high cost of the US-led trade war The largest economy in the worldThe United States is China's largest export market, but growing tensions and the multi-billion dollar tariff war have severely affected the volume of trade between the two countries.

The postponement of crucial trade talks between Beijing and Washington, aimed at ending the trade war, has seriously undermined the optimism of markets and businesses.

In London, he fell From the Financial Times With 0.75%, while the New York 500 index fell similarly in the afternoon, while in the currency markets, the pound lost 1% against the euro and is returned to $ 1.30.

He started European Central BankLast Thursday we sounded the alarm about the increased risk for global growth.

The Frankfurt-based company has lowered its economic forecast for the company Eurozone GDP increase from 1.7% to 1.1% this year, due to a slowdown Chinese economy As the main factor of degradation of the credit rating.

The governor of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, said the block was very concerned about the slowdown in global trade, adding that there were risks to creating emerging markets and "A possible slowdown in the United States "Not to mention that the volatile trade talks resulted in" less confidence "according to Draghi.

Hopes are based on strengthening Global economic growth By giving it a boost now to a package of Beijing stimulus packages, including a more flexible monetary policy.

However, economic experts have always warned that any injection of funds or the introduction of new monetary instruments for trade in China would not be as important as that observed in previous recessions of the last decade.

Said employee at the bank "ANZ", Raymond Young, Trade Numbers "Our point of view is reinforced by the fact that China's trade recession is emerging," stressing that "L & # 39; Hope of a short-term recovery remains slim ".

The economist warns that even if a trade war between the world's two largest economic powers comes to an end, that will not be enough to promote growth favorably. Goods between China and the United States.

Julian Evans-Pritchard Foundation said "Capital Economics" The "Poor" figures supported further evidence of declining global demand, as well as the weakness of domestic economic activity.

He added that lower tariffs in the United States would give a moderate boost to exports, but "Not enough to offset the wider external headwinds".

He notes that there has been a series of negative data from China in recent months, indicating that factories were facing a decline in demand.

Freya Bemich of the Pantheon's Macroeconomic Institution said that the SMIs "indicate a sharp drop in exports, which may already be the case".

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The US employment report showed that the number of people joining the labor market in February was only 20,000, compared to the 160,000 expected jobs.

The sharp decline in employment follows the sharp decline in Chinese shipments to the United States, termed a "trade recession".

The drop in shipments was approximately 20.7%, 5% higher than the forecast 5%.

Signs of a sharp slowdown in US growth have been so strong that some economists now believe that the next step of the Fed will be to reduce interest rates rather than raise them, even if annual wage growth is the main factor. Inflation engine, Level since 2009.

Chinese statistics have revealed the high cost of the trade war between the United States and the world's second-largest economy. The United States is China's main export market, but rising tensions and a multi-billion dollar tariff war have severely affected trade between the two countries.

The postponement of crucial trade talks between Beijing and Washington, aimed at ending the trade war, has seriously undermined the optimism of markets and businesses.

In London, the FTSE 100 fell 0.75%, with New York's 500 registering a similar drop in the afternoon, while in the currency markets, the pound lost 1% against the US dollar. euro and returned to 1.30 USD.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) began to sound the alarm when faced with rising risks of global growth.

The Frankfurt-based company has lowered its economic forecast for the eurozone from 1.7% to 1.1% of GDP this year, citing China's economic slowdown as one of the main drivers of credit deterioration.

The governor of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, said the bloc worried a lot about the slowdown in global trade, adding that there were risks for the construction of emerging markets and a "possible slowdown to United States ", and that volatile trade negotiations had produced" less confidence ". According to Draghi.

The hope of reviving global economic growth and boosting it now depends on a stimulus package put in place by Beijing, including a more flexible monetary policy.

However, economic experts have always warned that any injection of funds or the introduction of new monetary instruments for trade in China would not be as important as that observed in previous recessions of the last decade.

"Trade figures" reinforce our view that the Chinese trade recession is beginning to appear, "said ANZ employee Raymond Yung. The hope of a short-term recovery remains weak. "

The economist warns that even if a trade war between the world's two largest economic powers comes to an end, that will not be enough to promote growth favorably. Goods between China and the United States.

Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said the "miserable" figures corroborated new evidence of a decline in global demand, as well as weak domestic economic activity.

He added that lower tariffs in the United States would boost exports in a moderate way, but "insufficient to offset larger external headwinds".

He notes that there has been a series of negative data from China in recent months, indicating that factories were facing a decline in demand.

"There is a sharp drop in exports and this could be the case," said Freya Bemich of the Pantheon Institute of Macroeconomics.

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