Arab economic integration between the dream of geography and the nightmare of history

Posted in Morning News on 25 – 03 – 2019

Economic analysts and researchers in the Arab region hope that the Arab summit in Tunis on March 31 will bring together parties affected by disputes such as the Gulf crisis (2017), the crisis of Western Sahara over several decades and the crisis. Syrian. A political word, even if it will not liberate the Arab economic genius from the bottle of reality between the hammer of Western politics and the personal interest of states and entities.
The Arab region, which extends over 13 million square kilometers, extends from the Atlantic to the Persian Gulf and speaks mainly Arabic, making Arab unity a popular dream since the colonial period, but it has failed in its history and has become a nightmare, due to internal conflicts on the one hand and the occupation of Israel by the heart of the Arab world and by Western policies.
In this article, we seek to shed light on the problem of Arab economic integration, whose policies are based on paper and which have no fruit on the ground, extrapolating the opinions of some number of analysts and researchers in international and regional relations, including the director of the Arab Center for Political and Social Studies (Geneva). Tunisian economist Rida Shakandali and former finance minister Hakim Ben Hamouda.
Arab integration between hammer and anvil
"The Arab countries that started the EU way before Europe have achieved very negative results while Europe has reached the stage of the Union with regard to aspects financial, logistic, military and economic, "said Riad El Sidawi, director of the Arab Center for Political and Social Studies (Geneva).
The failure of Arab economic integration is due to the impossibility of satisfying two main requirements: ensuring the free movement of people and ensuring the free flow of capital in the Arab region.
"The European Union, close to the Arab region, has managed to achieve all economic goals in return for the survival of the Arab League," Sidawi said.
"The regional divisions of the Arab League, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), are paralyzed by differences in the direction of the Qatari crisis.
"There is no sign of hope for Arab economic integration and the Arab countries that are achieving their economic goals," he said.
The Arab Summit, Tunis 2019, is held as a result of an economic summit organized by Lebanon and witnessed the absence of most Arab leaders and made no decision to make advance Arab economic convergence.
Sidawi said the Arab summits "have unfortunately become forums for diplomatic contacts and reconciliations and have practically yielded no results".
Tunisia summit tries to address political divide
Al-Sidawi believes that Tunisia remains a country with middle positions, as it once sought to regroup the Arab countries and renounce the division, assuming that Tunisia could have played a better regional role without the transition conditions. particular economic problems.
"Tunisia's summit will bring no miracle during Arab integration and action, which is at the root of its failure, until now." , internal and external factors, including the establishment of the Israeli entity in the heart of the Arab world, along the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean, the parties "will work in one way or in any other way. another to delay the departure of the Arab world.
The Arab world has the largest reserves of oil and gas, as well as a large amount of metals (iron, gold and phosphates). It is rich in human elements, mainly young people (70% of the population). These factors can, if combined, impose the Arab world as an economic force threatening the security of the Israeli entity and European control, according to Sidawi.
Sidawi argues that internal problems in the Arab region, such as internal power struggles (Yemen, Libya and Syria) due to the lack of democratic systems, have hindered the path of economic unity. Arab. "If all the Arab countries were democratic, like today in Tunisia, Arab and push it."
"The Western world, which lies on the bosom of the Arab region, is planning not to stay out of the bottle and become an economic conservative by fueling differences, maintaining its policies in the region and drawing on its capabilities. . "
Al-Sidawi pointed out that the Arab public opinion is not interested in meetings of Arab politicians who, in 1973, have not made any decisions that "reflect the opinion of the street Arab".
"Unfortunately, what we are seeing today is the lack of interest aroused by Arab public opinion at Arab summits … The latest bold Arab decisions are due to the decision to reduce oil supplies in the 1970s … On the contrary, Arab politicians "then made decisions damaged the Arab region".
The Arab world: a missed opportunity for integration that imposes new visions
Former Finance Minister Hakeem Ben Hamouda (29 January 2014 – 6 February 2015) described the Arab economic situation as difficult, stressing that there are "significant and important" challenges, including growth rates. limited and financial imbalances of some Arab countries,
The difficulties of Arab economic integration are due to the inability to diversify economic activities and their association with raw materials, which poses serious problems. He stressed that "the level of intra-Arab trade is still limited" and investments.
He believes that the main challenge for the Arab world today is to create new visions that will establish a new political and economic project taking into account the known political and geographical transformations of the region. Ben Hamouda wonders if existing Arab institutions are able to meet the challenge.
"The Arab Economic Summits, held in Kuwait since the beginning of 2009, have highlighted the importance of Arab economic integration, but these approaches have not turned into concrete policies. Arab integration remained "at the level of great slogans" and did not materialize.
The spokesperson compares the paths of integration taken by the regional associations of Asia and Africa and the achievements of the Arab region, which is still far from the levels of integration existing in these areas. clusters.
Arab integration: modern figures
Tunisian economist Rida Shakandali said the Arab countries collectively represent about 400 million people with a gross domestic product of about $ 2,354 billion, which means that the average income in the Arab countries is about About $ 5,900 a year.
"The distribution of wealth in the Arab countries shows the deep gap that separates the Maghreb region, which absorbs a quarter of the population of the Arab region and only 13.8% of the Arab production and the GCC, which represents more half of Arab production, its population represents only 13.4% of the Arab population.
These figures show that the average income in the GCC countries ($ 25,708 per year) is more than eight times higher than that of the Maghreb ($ 3,242) and higher than that of the signatories of the Free Trade Agreement. from Agadir ($ 3,068).
"Despite the availability of the legislative and institutional framework to build Arab economic integration, the Arab region is considered the weakest in terms of intra-OIC trade." Inter-Arab imports account for only 13.8% of imports. and Arab exports, and only 12% of Arab exports in 2016, "he said. .
The Scandinavian division divides the Arab region into three groups, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait forming the GCC.
This group is the most consistent group, accounting for 85.1% of total imports and exports of Arab countries, of which 72.1% is exported to Arab countries. While intra-OIC trade with Arab Maghreb countries accounts for only 1.2% of its imports from Arab countries and 3.8% of its exports to these countries.
Al-Shakandali believes that the signatories of the Agadir Agreement (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Jordan) are non-transactional, with total imports accounting for 9.5% of total imports from Arab countries and 12% of total imports from Arab countries. , 8% for inter-export exports, the group most open to groups. Of which 80.3% are imported from Arab countries and 65.3% are exported to Arab countries.
The third group, which includes the Arab Maghreb Union (Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Libya and Mauritania), is characterized by an average intra-OIC trade volume, with intra-Arab imports accounting for 42.6%. exports from Arab countries with 58.6%. Commercial transactions with other Arab countries.
Regional integration: expert prophecy
A study of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published in February 2019. "The GDP of the Maghreb countries could have reached, in the form of integration, in 2017 UAE revenues) and per capita GDP could reach USD 4,000.
The study, entitled "Economic Integration in the Arab Maghreb: A Source of Untapped Growth", concluded that the integration of the Maghreb (the Arab Maghreb Union updated in 1979) needs to reduce barriers to trade and investment, networking, liberalizing commodity markets and improving the business climate. Integration of regional integration with the global integration of the region.
Arab integration, decades after the creation of the Arab League, remains a dream in the minds of the people and an intellectual domain for Arab experts, researchers and media, who incite statistics and prevent disputes and conflicts. quarrels and the idea of ​​protecting the national security of countries. Many meetings that sometimes greet conflicts and renew geographical links and alliances with counterparts: did the Arabs really agree not to agree? (Watts)

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