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By Alex Lawler and Julia Penn and Ron Poso
LONDON (Reuters) – The oil market will see prices rise by 5 to 10 dollars a barrel on Monday, and could reach 100 dollars a barrel if Saudi Arabia does not resume supplies disrupted on Saturday due to attacks. said traders and analysts.
The attack on two units at the heart of the Saudi oil industry on Saturday halted more than half of Saudi production against nearly 5% of global supply.
Industry sources said it could take weeks to reproduce at its most complete level.
Below you will find comments from some oil market workers, traders and analysts.
Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy
Crude oil prices will rise by at least $ 15 to $ 20 per barrel in a seven-day turbulence scenario and reach more than $ 100 in a 30-day scenario.
"This does not include what will likely be large reserves reflecting the depletion of global unused capacity given the ongoing risk of disruption, storage and panic".
Greg Newman is co-CEO of Onyx Commodities
The price of a combination of futures is expected to rise by $ 2 a barrel and prices will close at the end of Monday's trading, rising between $ 7 and $ 10 a barrel.
The market will probably come back to $ 100 a barrel if the problem can not be solved in the short term.
The prices of refined products, especially high sulfur oil, will increase due to the current supply shortage and the fact that it is the refinery producer, which is the most linked to heavy Saudi crude.
Ayham Kamel from Eurasia Group
A small bonus of $ 2 to $ 3 per barrel will appear if the damage appears to be a problem that can be resolved quickly, and $ 10 if the damage to Aramco is significant.
"The scale of the attack will prompt markets to reconsider the need to consider a premium for the geopolitical risks of oil … The attacks are likely to complicate plans for the IPO. Aramco given the high security risks and their potential impact on the valuation of the company. "
"The United States will not withdraw crude oil from the strategic reserve unless damage to infrastructure appears to be severe or oil prices soar."
Samuel Ciszuk, co-founder of ELS Analysys
"Five million barrels a day, about half of today's Saudi production and about 5 percent of the world's supply, are disrupted by historical norms, and in a few weeks it will begin to put pressure on the market."
"This incident is a very uncomfortable alarm to impose considerably higher risk premiums on Gulf production."
Christian Malik from JP Morgan
"I expect oil prices to rise from $ 3 to $ 5 in the near term." The market was falling asleep in terms of risk premium in the region, focusing disproportionately on risk growth of demand and supply of oil shale. "
"This attack introduces a new irreversible risk premium on the market."
The price of oil is expected to reach $ 80 to $ 90 per barrel over the next three to six months as market attention shifts to geopolitical factors.
Gary Ross of Black Gold Investors
"The heart of the Saudi oil industry has been successfully attacked, so expect prices to rise to 65-70 dollars a barrel."
"These attacks are hard to stop and can happen from time to time, and the market has to take this risk into account."
John Driscoll of JTD Energy
"This is remarkable because it excludes double the excess capacity of the market, which ranges from two million to 2.5 million barrels a day."
"A first reaction will be caused by panic: Anyone who protects a debtor will want to get out of this situation quickly, which could lead to a sharp rise."
Tilak Doshi by Muse & Stancel
"In the oil world, this attack could be the equivalent of the September 11 attacks … Abqaiq is arguably the most important infrastructure in the world for oil production and processing."
"This places the proxy wars of Iran in the region entirely at the center of security concerns in the Middle East."
"For Asian governments, this may go beyond lingering concerns about the safety of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, but also more serious concerns about the impact of direct hostilities between the US and the US. Saudi and Iranian alliance. "
"The governments of the entire Asian region could now further support the severe sanctions regime applied by the US administration to Iran".
(Prepared by Mounir Bweiti for the Arab Bulletin – Edited by Abdel Moneim Derar)
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