Analysis: Trump's decision is a boost for Netanyahu and a danger for Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu two weeks before the elections.
For many Arabs, this decision blocked any hope for one-day peace between Israel and the Palestinians and raised suspicions that Washington was a neutral mediator.
But allies and enemies can agree on one point: Trump's decision is a turning point in US policy on the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 Middle East War and annexed in 1981, a decision that the United Nations Security Council declared illegal.
AndUS Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Christian Radio during his visit to Israel: "I'm sure the Lord is taking care of him here."
Netanyahu, who thanked Trump for his announcement, wants to be re-elected on April 9, but faces a fierce battle and possible condemnation in three corruption cases. Netanyahu denies any wrongdoing.
Netanyahu met with Trump on Monday during a visit that highlights what Netanyahu calls the strongest relationship between an Israeli leader and an American president, although Trump said that his decision on the Golan Heights did not make any difference. was not tied to the elections.
According to analysts in the Middle East, Trump's decision, taken after the United States recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital in December 2017, could tempt other forces by annexing territories, undermining a plan. American peace in the Middle East and referring Israel to a conflict with its Arab neighbors.
"Donald Trump has confirmed that Israel would be at war with its Arab neighbors for many decades," said Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science and author of The Shape of the Arab World: the conflict between Nasser and Qutb that surrounded the Middle East.
"What Trump did, it's a deadly nail in the coffin of the Israeli-Arab peace and reconciliation process – it's a fundamental turning point – there's nothing more to discuss. "

Restructuring the Middle East
Many analysts believe that Trump's approach aims in part to increase his chances of re-election in 2020 by targeting the vast group of American evangelical Christians. Many of them voted in his favor in 2016 and are supported in his administration by Pompeo, Vice President Mike Bens and others.
The declaration on the Golan Heights was the latest in a series of resolutions widely seen as aimed at reshaping the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Most of the decisions came from the wish list of the right-wing government in Israel and also responded to old requests from its American supporters, including the United States recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Israel annexed East Jerusalem and annexed it after 1967, in an internationally unrecognized movement.
White House officials said decisions on Jerusalem and the Golan Heights recognized the reality on the ground and said it should be the basis for any peace negotiations.
Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt said it was unreasonable for Israel to allow the Golan to be controlled by Syria or by rogue elements operating in the region, including Iran.
But, as Arab Sunni leaders face crises in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Algeria, Sudan and Qatar, as well as their confrontation with a non-Arab Shia Iran, they focus less on Israel.

Arabs are in chaos
Trump's associates said in informal conversations that they thought his move to Jerusalem had provoked a less intense reaction in the Arab world than the experts expected, according to a person familiar with the case. asked not to be identified.
In particular, they did not seem to have cut off the security contacts that had developed in recent years behind the scenes between Israel and the US allies in the Gulf about their common enemy, Iran.
The same person said that the council of Tramp's assistants on the recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights was that Washington would once again weather the storm.
He added that support for this Trump administration initiative had gained momentum last year, as Israel worried more and more of the taking of positions of Iranian forces and their proxies in south-west Syria.
John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser and one of Iran's leading hawks against Iran, was a key supporter of the policy change, said the official.
Skeptics, however, believe that this measure would give Iran and its local ally, Hezbollah, what could be seen as a justification for further attacks against Israel and would be an obstacle for Arab leaders opposed to Hezbollah. Iran if it accepted the decision of the United States.
Trump has identified Iran as its main target in the Middle East and has withdrawn from an agreement signed by Tehran, the United States and other world powers in 2015 to limit the Iran's nuclear program.

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But after the steps on Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, Iran and Hezbollah may feel better able to present themselves as the only firm allies of the Palestinian cause.
It could also benefit Syrian President Bashar Assad by helping him portray Israel and the United States as enemies.
"This will give more power to the axis of Iranian resistance between Iran, Hezbollah and Assad against Israel and the United States," said Ghalib Dallay, a visiting scholar at the University of Iran. Oxford and the Brookings Doha Center. "This axis has a very strong symbolic victory,.
He said the Arab leaders could not publicly support Trump's decisions on Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, as that would actually lessen their already low popularity.
"From an Arab point of view, this makes them more reluctant to support because the political space they need has eroded," said Dennis Ross, a seasoned negotiator from the Middle East. All the measures taken by this administration put the Arab countries on the defensive. "
Ross also noted that the United States' recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights could encourage Israeli law to intensify its campaign of annexation of settlements in the occupied West Bank.
"I'm afraid the right in Israel can say," Admit it, it will only be a matter of time before we can annex all or part of the West Bank, "he said. declared.