Arab world enters 2021, overwhelmed by 2020 conflicts

Istanbul: The Arab world enters 2021, fraught with crises and challenges. From east to west, the hotbeds of conflict are divided and the divisions aggravate their wounds.
Among the most important of these countries facing serious security problems: Libya, Somalia, Syria, Iraq and Sudan.

Libya .. war at the gates or urgent peace
Libyan parties meeting in Tunisia under the auspices of the United Nations have agreed to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 24, 2021, but the process of forming a new presidential council with a separate prime minister is still at a standstill, without talk about the failure of the unification of parliament.
Likewise, the constitutional path has not been agreed, and it has not yet been decided to submit the draft constitution prepared by the elected committee of the 60 to a popular referendum, nor to refer to the Constitutional Declaration or to the last constitution under the monarchy (1963).
These indicators do not suggest that the elections will take place before the end of 2021, despite the ceasefire agreement between the government army and the militias of the putschist general Khalifa Haftar, signed on October 23.
However, the return of Haftar to mobilize his militia near the lines of contact in Sirte and Jufrah governorates, and the sending of military reinforcements by the government army to the region, is another indication that the situation is likely to arise. explode, if the military balance is unbalanced and the political solution is not accelerated.

Somalia .. Will it remain alone in the face of “Al-Shabab”?
In 2021, the country faces the challenge of organizing legislative elections, which it failed to organize on the date scheduled for December 1, 2020.
The government and parties have not agreed on how to conduct them in a way that would ensure their integrity, and there is no confirmation that a general election will also be held in February.
And the decision of the United States of America to withdraw most of its troops from Somalia in early 2021, estimated at 700 people, would double the country’s security challenges.
The US move coincided with the withdrawal of 3,000 Ethiopian peacekeepers from Somalia last November, following the outbreak of the Tigray War.
There are also plans to reduce the 17,000 African Union peacekeepers next year, given the lack of UN funding.
The biggest threat to the government is the ‘youth movement’, which controls around 20% of the country, especially in the south and center, estimated at 10,000, and can exploit the decline in external military support to the government to multiply its attacks and expand its areas of control, while blocking the organization of elections.

Iraq .. between the hammer of Washington and the anvil of Tehran
The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran since the murder of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in December, and before that, the murder of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020 near the airport of Baghdad, will make Iraq a battleground between the two sides in 2021.
On December 20, the US embassy in Baghdad was hit by a missile strike that left no casualties, and Washington accused Iran of being behind the attack with one of its arms in Iraq.
The US military command in the region has stressed that the missile attack “was almost certainly carried out by an Iranian-backed rebel group”, which Tehran denied.
The departure of US President Donald Trump from the White House on January 20, 2021 could ease tensions with Iran, especially if President-elect Joe Biden pursues a policy of dialogue with Tehran, to resolve the crisis over its nuclear issue, and this might make the Iraqis breathe a sigh of relief.
But if Biden has pursued a policy of escalation with Tehran, or if Trump implicated him in a war before he leaves, Iraq will be the first to pay the price for this clash in 2021.
It is not only the US-Iranian conflict in Iraq that troubles the government in Baghdad, as ISIS is still active in the center of the country, in addition to the security threat posed by the PKK in the north of the country.

Syria .. 10 years of pain and hope
In 2021, 10 years have passed since the outbreak of its revolution against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and fighting has subsided due to the Turkish-Russian agreements, but the Syrian regime is expected to launch an attack with Russian backing. against opposition strongholds in Idlib.
In addition, the border areas with Turkey from which the “SDF” militias have not withdrawn could also witness an escalation, especially since the Syrian national army launched a military attack in late 2020 on the region of Ain Issa (north).
The Syrians are waiting whether Biden will continue to withdraw US forces from Syria, or seek to support the “SDF”, which refuses to disengage from the “PKK”.
Politically, the Syrian regime seeks to organize presidential elections in 2021, the legitimacy of which is not recognized by the opposition, especially since it has not entered into a comprehensive agreement guaranteeing its integrity.

Sudan … facing unruly Ethiopian militias
Khartoum faces a new border challenge with Ethiopia that could worsen in 2021, although its roots are ancient, as militias from the neighboring Ethiopian region of Amhara occasionally take over farmland in the region. Gedaref governorate in eastern Sudan.
At the end of 2020, the Sudanese army intervened and reclaimed all this land which had been seized by Ethiopian militias in the region of Fashaqa in Gedaref, about 26 years ago.
Ethiopian armed groups usually resort to guerrilla warfare against the Sudanese army, whose members were recently killed in an ambush at the borders, so it is not unlikely that these militias will resume their attacks in disputed areas.
Despite the demarcation of the border between Ethiopia and Sudan since 1902, the Ethiopian Amhara tribes still regard the farmland across the border as their own, especially since they lack fertile land, this which renews this dispute.
But Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed his government’s determination to dry up the hotbed of differences and end the clashes in areas bordering Sudan for good, a day after the conclusion of the political committee meeting on the issues. borders between the two countries.
This can exacerbate border instability, the influx of tens of thousands of Ethiopian refugees into Sudan due to the fallout from the Tigray War, as well as the Renaissance Dam crisis and its complications.
In addition to the border crisis with Ethiopia, there is a border dispute with South Sudan in the oil-rich region of Abyei, and a third border dispute with Egypt in the Halayeb triangle overlooking the Red Sea.
These countries are not the only ones entering the new year, overwhelmed by the wounds of the past year and with hope of an imminent end to their crises. There are other Arab countries which suffer from conflicts of varying intensity which share the same sufferings and hopes.

(Anatolia)