Biden: Are the Arabs exaggerating their hopes on him?

She added: “The Arab world in general has ceased to exert influence and has nothing more to offer on the table” on the world political scene.

During the first week of November, Egyptian authorities released around 600 detainees in connection with protests in Egyptian cities last September, including five close to Egyptian-American activist Muhammad Sultan, which the defender of the Egyptian human rights Bahi El Din Hassan said about it. The first rain is 5 in 60 thousand.

As for Saudi Arabia, the British Guardian newspaper quoted the Kingdom’s Ambassador to London, Prince Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, that his country is considering the release of a number of activists, including Loujain Al-Hathloul. , who went on hunger strike at the end of October. However, the embassy released a statement later, in which it said that the ambassador’s statements were taken out of context and that he spoke of possibilities and hypotheses, and the matter remains subject to decision. court.

Some tend to read all of these measures in light of identification with the new US administration, which Ghada logically sees, but it will not necessarily benefit the Arab citizen, but rather reform the image of governments.

“The proof is that those who are released are usually those who have been arbitrarily arrested without specific charge, and those who defend real cases or demand real civil, legal or social reform will not come out. If they leave, they will be broken.

Biden has repeatedly pointed out that “the era of supporting dictatorships is over,” and wrote in a tweet on Nov. 10, “When I speak to world leaders, I tell them America will come back to the game.”

But Dr Amjad Rashid, professor of international relations at the University of Tübingen in Germany and researcher at Durham University in Great Britain, reads the scene more carefully: “It is too early to define Biden’s policy towards the Middle East or foreign policy in general. But what we do know is that those around him will be Democrats. The veteran will certainly tend to support democracy, and current support for authoritarian regimes will decline.

Biden’s post-victory speech focuses on US domestic policies, so we see him recommending a pledge to wear protective masks, pledge to take better action to deal with Corona, and cooperate with the Senate to put in places a health insurance system upon his arrival at the White House.

Rashid believes that the Biden administration is more likely to pay more attention to the home front. “The American house is currently divided, and the votes Trump has won are not uncommon, and his supporters are resisting the new administration.”

But Rashid does not completely rule out the Biden administration having influence over policies in the region. “Democratic administration, by its nature, is interested in foreign policy, and Middle East policy in particular. But that depends on Biden’s ability to contain the home front first.”

The Carnegie Center for Middle East Studies published an article on the most important measures Biden promised towards the Middle East, including the rescinding of the entry ban on Iranian, Somali, Syrian and Yemeni citizens from the United States, which Trump approved in 2017. Biden also pledged to accept 125,000 refugees in the first year of his presidency. And accept at least 95,000 refugees a year.

These promises, according to Ghada, are strategic in relation to the type of discourse Biden takes, “and he said them vaguely, without explaining the conditions associated with these measures, as he did not use the word refugees specifically, but did instead used the word “alien” which comes in the American context to mean alien or alien. “

She ruled out that the United States would receive this number of asylum seekers. A few refugees in his country. “

Although none of Biden’s promises directly affect the Arab human rights record, “but the impact of his presence is currently palpable indirectly (in the form of a detainee liberation movement, for example) , and the direct effect will be after a while, “according to Rasheed, who is likely to launch Biden. By pushing for reforms in Arab politics with the second half of his term.

He added: “Perhaps in the third year he will work to strengthen the human rights record, such as returning support to local human rights organizations and their programs, or through the National Democratic Institute, for example. Kamala Harris’ presence as vice president can increase the chances of promoting policies that support women. “

According to the website of the National Democratic Institute, it has offices in ten countries in the region and regional projects in 15 countries, but this has not always been welcome, as its offices have already been attacked, closed and suspended their activities in Bahrain, the Emirates, Egypt and Sudan.

Ghada believes that activities supported by the institute and other similar programs “are often elitist, targeting a particular class and culture. It is sort of propaganda for the American system, but it does not touch the essence of people’s lives. “

After Biden was declared winning the presidency, former Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki wrote that the president-elect was “sympathetic to Tunisia and its peaceful democratic revolution”. In subsequent media statements, he said Trump was “a great disaster for the Arabs” and “the deal of the century is over.”

On the other hand, a video clip of Biden, dating from March 2013, appeared at the annual meeting of the Israeli American Public Affairs Committee, in which he underscored the United States’ commitment to protect the security of Israel, which was affected by instability in Egypt and the Iranian nuclear program.

Part of the speech was broadcast on social media, in which he said: “My father told me that you don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, we are indeed Zionists. of the State of Israel is essential for the security of Jews around the world. “

Ghada sees this speech as a summary of Biden’s priorities in the region and his stance on normalization. “Being a Democrat could have complicated the course of decisions and procedures. But Trump has taken more reckless steps and made progress that the US administration has not made since presiding over Nixon, with the principal moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing it as the capital of ‘Israel. Biden won’t cancel any of them. ”

Biden is committed to his campaign to revive relations with the Palestinian Authority and restore them to the scene, and the return of aid that has been stopped by the Trump administration for refugees, as well as to discourage l annexation of land and construction of settlements. But again, countries in the region no longer have the political clout to negotiate on the basis of which Israel exploited our concern – us Arabs – with the US elections to abuse Bedouin tribes in the Palestinian territories.

Rashid thinks normalization is a distorted process in its procedures, but it has become a reality. Normalization is likely to continue, but at a slower pace and without American pressure, and not Trump’s way. Unfortunately, Yemen was the price to pay, the price of normalization with Israel was the free hand of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Despite Trump’s reluctance to engage in direct military intervention in the region’s conflicts, he rejected Congressional decision to halt US support for Saudi Arabia, due to violations of the Yemen war, and even got involved in the sale of arms to countries in the region.

Reuters reported last August that the Trump administration had promised the United Arab Emirates the F-35 deal following the normalization announcement, which Israel opposed and viewed as a violation of its military superiority in the region.

Biden did not announce his stance on arms, but pledged not to support wars and to reassess relations with Saudi Arabia.

The same backdrop affects Turkish activity in the region, as the Trump administration has not opposed, and perhaps even implicitly, Turkey’s intervention in Libya and Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed a letter to Trump on November 10, in which he said: “I am grateful for your sincere and confident vision to develop Turkish-American relations based on common values ​​and interests throughout of your presidency. “

Despite Erdogan’s assertion of his country’s willingness to cooperate with any US administration, Rashid believes the issue is more complicated and intricate.

Last September, Qatar hosted talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, in the presence of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. “Qatar is the channel of communication with the Taliban, and maintaining it is important to the US effort to stabilize Afghanistan, from which Biden will often seek even a partial military withdrawal.”

With the same aim of stability in Afghanistan, Rashid likely that the Biden administration would seek a return to negotiations with Iran, “even if the Iranian negotiations are more difficult and volatile than the rest of the region”.

Biden has hinted in his platform that he is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and seek to revive the previous deal or strike a new deal.

Biden is likely to overturn Trump’s decisions to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and support the environment, global warming and clean energy issues.

“This is perhaps the only positive effect expected from Biden’s policies,” Ghada says. But even this trend will hurt the economies of many countries in the region due to dependence on oil and natural gas, commodities that have become unattractive.