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Anyone who thinks that the emerging Corona virus pandemic will end within the next six months, they shouldn’t be overly optimistic as more estimates and data point to the contrary, according to what the Bloomberg agency quoted as citing reports. scientists and specialists.
According to the agency, most experts agree that the epidemic will not end until all people are vaccinated or infected, or both, in addition to the presence of “a few unlucky numbers” who will contract more than once the disease Covid-19.
These specialists confirm that new waves of the pandemic will result in the closure of schools in many countries, while residents of nursing homes who have received the vaccine will face renewed fears of infection with the coronavirus, while many workers and employees will think twice before leaving. their homes to head office and their places of work for the next six months.
With billions of people around the world unvaccinated, expectations have risen for outbreaks in classrooms, public transport and workplaces over the coming months as economies progress towards reopening.
Even with higher vaccination rates, there will still be people at risk of contracting the virus such as newborns, people who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons, as well as those who have been vaccinated but suffer from serious infections as their level of protection decreases.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota at Minneapolis, and adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, explained that there will be continued increases and an increase in the number of people infected with Le Corona virus around the world before it probably declines quite quickly after that.
“I think it’s very easy to see other peaks in the fall and winter of this year,” he added.
He continued, “We will see hills and valleys someday (the epidemic is receding) in the years to come after we have received more vaccinations… But I can only tell you that this virus is like a forest fire that does not go away. ‘won’t stop until he has all the human wood he can burn. “
Corona compared to other outbreaks
Compared to the five well-documented influenza pandemics of the past 130 years (such as the Spanish flu), the world’s longest influenza epidemic lasted five years, according to Lone Simonsen, epidemiologist and professor of population health sciences at the University. from Roskilde in Denmark. .
Simonsen explained that most waves of flu epidemics ranged from two to four waves over an average of two or three years, noting that the Corona virus could enter among the most serious outbreaks as its second year will end with the entry of the world in the middle of the third wave, without threat, end in sight.
Experts believe the Corona virus may not follow the path that epidemics preceded it in the past because it is a different, new and possibly more communicable disease as it claimed the lives of more than 4.6 million victims so far, and this is twice as many as any epidemic since the end of the Spanish influenza pandemic, which began in 1918, and killed 50 to 100 million people , according to some estimates
According to Simonsen, history shows that the common belief that viruses automatically become milder over time to avoid completely wiping out the host population – is false, noting that “Although the new mutant is not always more dangerous than its predecessor, it becomes more deadly during the outbreak The virus adapts to its new host.
At the start of the spread of Covid-19, there was good reason to hope that the vaccines would provide long-term protection similar to the polio vaccine that ended the disease globally, but Kanta Subaru, director of the cooperation with the World Health Organization, said: “This epidemic has the force of massive infection.”
Some researchers say the virus is on the verge of becoming completely resistant to the first generation of vaccines, and in this regard Simonsen hopes, “This scenario will not happen,” with other possibilities speaking of the emergence of a new influenza virus or other Corona virus. transmitted from animals to humans.
Here, Subaru points out, “As long as there are animal reservoirs for the Corona virus, there is always the possibility that another animal corona virus will emerge in the future.”
Experts say the boas will not end in 6 months, noting that the current outbreak will be brought under control once 90% to 95% of the world’s population is vaccinated or gains immunity from a previous infection.
More than 5.66 billion doses of the vaccine have been administered worldwide, according to Bloomberg statistics, but the success of vaccinations in some regions, such as the European Union, North America and China, hides a failure in other regions 5% of its population. , while India was only able to supply enough to immunize only 26 percent of the population.
The outbreak will end at different times in different places just like in previous outbreaks, said Erica Charters, associate professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and coordinator of a project on how to end epidemics, stressing that governments will have to decide what proportion of the disease they feel comfortable with.
And Charters continued: “The final process (to eradicate the pandemic) will not be uniform around the world, because the epidemic, in addition to being a biological condition, is at the same time a political and social phenomenon.
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