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Social distancing has all but eliminated the spread of the flu and other respiratory viruses. But that means future outbreaks could be serious, experts say.
In the short term, fewer influenza cases mean fewer influenza deaths and hospitalizations, relieving some of the burden on health systems facing “Covid-19,” according to The Atlantic.
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Cases of other seasonal viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), corona viruses that cause colds, and human parainfluenza viruses, which cause upper and lower respiratory tract infections, have also declined to significantly low levels. this year, likely due to coronavirus precautions like wearing face masks, physical distancing, hand washing, and limited international travel.
But experts predict this relief from seasonal viruses could put us at risk, as fewer people will be exposed and gain immunity to circulating strains.
“Sensitivity is increasing in the population,” Shweta Bansal, a pathology ecologist at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, told The Atlantic.
For example, children who have never been exposed to viruses will be born, as usual, but fewer children will experience viruses compared to the average year.
“People who are immunocompromised are like fuel against the flu. The more fuel available, the easier an epidemic,” Bansal added.
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With the growing size of the vulnerable population, “Rachel Baker, an epidemiologist at Princeton University, told Science News that” we need to be prepared for off-season outbreaks and possibly major outbreaks.
For example, New South Wales in Australia typically experiences its peak in respiratory syncytial virus cases between April and June, but in the 2020 season the number of positive RSV tests has declined by more than 85% compared to in recent years, according to Science News. But at the end of December, after the “Covid-19” restrictions were lifted in New South Wales, tests for RSV have increased and generally only a few hundred cases are reported at the end of December, but in 2020, 6,000 positive tests for the RSV appeared in just two weeks.
Baker told Science News that this Australian case “could be an interesting harbinger of what will happen in the northern hemisphere.”
The Atlantic reported that scientists are still unsure whether the next flu seasons will be bad. But the lack of influenza strains in circulation makes preparing for the season more difficult.
Scientists typically track the mutation of different flu strains over time, in order to predict which types of viruses might prevail over the next season. These first samples help them formulate new influenza vaccines in advance.
But with so few flu cases sampled this year, scientists are running out of data. Florian Kramer, virologist and influenza expert at Icahn School of Medicine in Mount Sinai, told The Atlantic that a low level of infection could theoretically eliminate certain strains of the flu. But on the other hand, completely new strains could emerge without scientists knowing about them.
Source: Science Live
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