[ad_1]
A report published by the National Bank of Kuwait revealed that the Egyptian economy continued to recover from the 2016 crisis and that the government was using the International Monetary Fund to coordinate the development of a program. integrated economic and financial support of $ 12 billion over three years.
The government plans to start implementing its reform plan, which aims to reduce subsidies, reduce the huge budget deficit, boost long-term growth and create jobs, according to the report. Although the Egyptian economy faces many long-term challenges (high inflation, unemployment, poverty and low levels of investment), the economy is expected to perform well in the short term, supported by the competitiveness of currencies. , tourism recovery, low interest rates and better decisions. In policy-making versus pre-crisis years
Average gross domestic product (GDP) growth was strong in the second half of 2017 (first half of fiscal 2017-2018) of 5.2% compared to the growth of the 2016 -2017 Adult year 3.6% and 2.3% last year. The acceleration of activity in the export and investment sectors supported growth in the second half of 2017.
Private sector growth accelerated to 5.4% to exceed growth recorded by the public sector. In line with improving economic conditions, unemployment fell to 10.5% in the first quarter of 2018 from 12% last year, its lowest level in eight years.
Announcements
The acceleration of activity over the past year The average is close to 50 points from January to May (+8 year-on-year), surpassing the bar of 50 points in April for the second time since 2015, supported by the improvement of production and new orders.
At the same time, the export demand component fell to nearly 50 points after recovering sharply over the past year, but still well above the its low level just before the publication of 36 points.
Supporting the improvement of business activity due to the increased competitiveness of the pound. With export earnings up 14% yoy in the first four months of 2018, but below the 20% average recorded at the end of last year. The tourism sector is also significantly improved with a number of arrivals up 54% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, but still much lower than before January.
We expect growth to continue in the short and medium term at a rate of about 5% over fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19, based on several factors: improved development policies, monetary competitiveness, high tourist activity, inflation and interest rates, development of the reform plan.
Natural, where the field "noon" one of the fields contributing to the production of up to 2.7 billion [1] In the months following the liberalization of the currency in November 2016, inflation has increased due to rising import prices, a shortage of domestic supply, reduced subsidies and a VAT) to 33 % in July 2017. Since then, inflation has fallen sharply due to the weakening of the currency and monetary policy of the Central Bank of Egypt. Inflation fell to 11.5% from one year to the next in May 2018 (core inflation at 11.1% yoy), which remains high but at a level similar to the average of the years preceding the liberalization of the exchanges.
In support of services to re-raise the inflation rate in the coming months, then come back down during the fall. We expect that inflation for the 2017-2018 fiscal year will reach 21%, falling to 10% for the 2018-2019 fiscal year.
The decline in inflation has allowed the central bank to cut rates by 200 basis points in the first half of 2018 Night shopping at 16.75% and lending at 17.75% despite the # 39, absence of further cuts at its meeting in June
The central bank is targeting inflation of about 13% in the fourth quarter of 2018 It has withdrawn a little after that. The central bank considers that high oil prices are the most important factors that could cause its rise, in addition to the pressure of demand and the inflationary effects of financial reforms, so that it follows a policy of facilitation very careful.
© Annahar 2018
Source link
