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An Israeli general spoke of the Arab Spring 10 years after its outbreak, stressing that this earthquake that swept through the Arab world “has faded, but it is not over yet”.
Israeli General Amos Gilboa, former head of the military intelligence division’s research brigade, mentioned “AMAN”; In an article published by the Israeli newspaper “Maariv” a week ago, the tenth anniversary of what has been called the “Arab Spring”, which “began with the mass revolution in Tunisia against the tyrannical ruler, arrived and quickly spread to many Arab countries “.
He added: “The masses revolted in the squares, and it seemed like a new Middle East; regimes fell, states fell apart, wars broke out, rulers changed, about a million people have been killed, millions have been displaced from their homes. ” But it’s not over yet. ”
He asked, “What is the Middle East like at the end of 2020? What happened in and around this country? Where is Israel?”, Adding: “What did not happen , no Arab Spring has taken place and the great hopes that the revolutionary masses place in social networks for the rise of democratic regimes “, The spread of a free liberal spirit among the Arab peoples, and as a result of this prosperity economic, all this was dispelled in the face of brutal reality. ”
As for what happened, through << looking upwards we can see four large images, some of which are the product of contexts not directly related to the earthquake; the geopolitical picture. An Arab world is no longer a strong politico-diplomatic and economic force; it is no longer an Arab world of petrodollars which imposes its terror on the world; there is even a divided and fragmented Arab world, much poorer, unstable, violent and inflammable. "
Also read: Hebrew site: Arab Spring was a surprise and could return in a stronger form
Gilboa said: “The two forces affecting him are not Arabs; from the east, Iran, as the central power of influence over the Fertile Crescent and the Arabian Peninsula, and from the west, the Turkey, as the central power of influence over Egypt, Libya and the northern sector of the Fertile Crescent in Syria and Iraq “, wondering: Turkey and Iran will replace the two influential parties in the past , namely the United States and the Soviet Union, by the presence of a new influential party, Israel?
He referred to several other components of the image. First, the end came to the Arab nation states (Syria and Iraq) which they established in the aftermath of the world war, Britain and France, with international legitimacy, and replaced tribal and sectarian nationalism, and Lebanon, which is a French product, has long ceased to be a nation state. Egypt is virtually the only true Arab nation state with a history of a Nile state.
Second: “Some countries have become unable to govern and some have lost their regional lands: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon. The war in Yemen continues with Saudi intervention and Iranian aid, and Libya is divided and the war within it continues with the Turkish (and also Emirati and Egyptian) intervention, and in Syria ended the war, but it continues against the rebels in northwestern Syria, as the ‘Iran and Russia are fighting for effective control of Syria, and Bashar al-Assad is a puppet that moves with strings. ”
And third, as the general asserts: There are “a few countries that have survived; Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Kuwait and Morocco, and Tunisia is the only country in which, after many ups and downs, a democratic system has emerged, ”noting that“ the interesting phenomenon is that the regimes that have survived are the pro-western states. Monarchy / tribalism (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain with the exception) did not erupt from mass revolutions, so is that what will be in the future? On the other hand, all the pro-Soviet countries suffered greatly from the quake, with Syria at the top.
He referred to “another interesting phenomenon; the earthquake has overtaken the PA and Hamas in Gaza, why? It is because the main public concern is centered on the Israeli occupation and the fight against Israel.” , and he asked, “What will happen after the departure of PA President Mahmoud Abbas?”
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