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The study conducted by the Israeli National Security Research Center on Monday urged the Tel Aviv government to adopt a "cautious approach to designing relations with regimes in the region" and "exploiting at the same time the opportunities offered by the existing reality ".
According to the study, "the main assumption that should rule the decision makers in Tel Aviv is that the regional system that formed after the eruption of the Arab revolutions in 2011 does not it's not stabilized "and that the potential for change could change the structure and direction of this system, still exists. "
The study, prepared by General Itay Baron, former commander of the research division of Israel's military intelligence division, and researchers Sara Fuer and Itay Hamantis, decision makers in Tel Aviv, warned that "the unstable nature of the reality in the Arab world, caution when entering into agreements with regimes that govern countries in the region or when entering into alliances and partnerships with them, knowing that the current reality may switch.
The authors of the study emphasized that "being careful does not mean not exploiting the current reality and the nature of relationships with existing systems, and using them in the face of the challenges Israel faces."
The authors of the study felt that "Israeli decision-makers must adopt flexible and short-term plans and policies to deal with the Arab world, including the need to use military force in a limited way against some risks, "as well as" to try to reach short-term arrangements, even with enemies "He said.
According to the study, it is "extremely important for Israel" to build a vision for the future of transformations in the Arab world, as decision-makers and leaders of the Tel Aviv Army "will be forced to take these transformations into account when designing public policy and planning military operations National security and all that is necessary to constitute the appropriate military force. "
The study urged "to take into account the characteristics of the transition period experienced by the Arab world, which is characterized by instability and uncertainty and sensitivity to effects, taking into account the characteristics and history of the conservative region ".
The authors of the study pointed out that there was reason to believe that the Arab world was about to undergo new transformations: the problems that led to the eruption of the Arab revolutions persist including: youth unemployment rate, corruption, deterioration of the economy, lack of social justice and dependence on oil. Or on external support, as well as on the continuation of the "identity war".
According to the authors of the study, the continuation of these problems "significantly affects the ceiling of expectations of the Arab masses, who can express their frustration by launching large waves of protests".
The authors of the study pointed out that, although the January 25 revolution failed to bring an end to the regime of the military regime in Egypt, this system has difficulty imposing its authority over areas of the country. countries, especially in the Sinai Peninsula, explaining that changes in the Arab world has led to a decline in the regional influence of the Egyptian and Saudi regimes, relative to Iran and Israel.
Although it seems that the Egyptian and Jordanian regimes have overcome the repercussions of the revolutions of the Arab Spring, many questions remain as to the immunity and cohesion of these two systems, in particular because that they can not provide solutions to the problems and challenges that the public faces, which could lead to a new wave of sudden changes.
The study pointed out that drawing lessons from the revolutions of the Arab Spring "has pushed the Egyptian, Jordanian and several Gulf states to intensify their security and intelligence cooperation with Tel Aviv, thus contributing to strengthening regional status. from Israel, The Palestinian question to decision-makers in the Arab world. "
The study pointed out that the changes that have occurred in the Arab world since 2011 "have led to the construction of a different regional system and the birth of governance models adopting different international policies."
Although the study indicates that the changes did not affect the survival of States and the borders between them, it indicates that some regimes in these countries have recognized that their sovereignty is incomplete, given that the Iraqi, Syrian, Libyan and Libyan confirm this.
The study revealed that the regional system, set up after the revolutions of the Arab Spring, gave an increasing role to the international and regional powers and that the changes in the Arab world led to the sharing of a real influence in the region between the United States, which was in the interest of the Gulf region. What has been appreciated by the Soviet Union in the past.
Although the study highlights the need to prepare new waves of change for the Arab world, it advances two other assumptions that have been adopted by some scholars: one is that the current regional system in the Arab world is identical to the one that existed before the revolutions of the Arab Spring. The second is that the current system is new and stable.
Tel Aviv decision-makers must "ensure that changes in the Arab world continue and have a major impact on Israel".
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