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Abdul Hafiz Al-Sawy
The performance of world trade since the end of 2018 has not been promising, as performance expectations since then have been negative, with the growth rate of world trade falling to 1.2% at the end of 2019 and the World trade value at the end of 2018 was estimated at $ 19.5 trillion.
And recently, the director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said that the world economy had already entered a recession, and in light of the Corona epidemic crisis, the director of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevedo , has made pessimistic statements about its performance in 2020, after the Corona crisis devastated the global economy.
Although Azevedo did not address the specific rates and expects the expected economic losses from the Corona crisis to outweigh the losses in 2008, estimates from the Trade Conference and The development indicated a drop in world exports last February of around 48 billion dollars, due to the suspension of supplies to Chinese industry abroad. .
And the discussion about the future of world trade, after the Corona crisis, not only remains tied to the scale of the global economy coming out of recession, but the issue will expand to affect the principle of free trade, as well as the role of the World Trade Organization.
The issue of trade protection has been a concern of the global economy since US President Donald Trump came to power, and it is one of the reasons many countries have suffered, especially China and the European Union. .
The role of the World Trade Organization in this dispute was not prominent, and the issue was debated only in parts of the countries, in addition to being addressed at G20 economic conferences, as well as conferences of international financial institutions (the World Bank and the International Fund).
Trade crisis
Under the open scenarios for the Corona crisis, it is not possible to accurately predict to what extent countries will be able to control the epidemic and move to normal performance of economic activity.
Due to the negative repercussions of stopping the movement of internal and external movements and limiting the movement of global transportations, some countries ultimately made decisions that would affect the movement of world trade, including negative repercussions on the movement of world trade. the food situation in the world.
Among these measures, Egypt, for example, made the decision to stop the export of all pulses for a period of three months, from the end of March 2020, and Vietnam – the third largest rice exporter – has also announced its intention to take measures to limit its rice exports.
Kazakhstan – the ninth largest exporter of wheat – has taken the same step with regard to its wheat exports, starting to take measures to limit its exports, natural measures in the face of crises. Previously, Russia was doing this in 2007 due to the climate change crisis.
arab countries
Should this wave of decisions intensify, especially with regard to food products, the Arab region would be one of the most affected regions, as it depends to a large extent on the import of food products.
According to statistics from the Unified Arab Economic Report for the year 2019, the food deficit in the Arab world was around $ 35 billion.
The situation of non-oil Arab countries may be worse, as they do not have the financial resources to adequately meet their needs, which means they may be met with less than their needs, or they will have to borrow to provide supplies. the food.
In this context, the value of Arab foreign trade is expected to decrease significantly in 2020, due to the collapse in oil prices, with oil accounting for around 64% of total Arab exports, which will impact on the performance of intra-Arab trade.
The reality of poor economic and political relations in the Arab region is not hidden. Talking about an Arab economic cooperation project is one of the most difficult questions, given the interwar period in the Arab region or the civil wars in several Arab countries.
But perhaps a state of awakening plagues Arab governments after the Corona crisis, calling on them to work seriously to activate the Arab economic cooperation project and provide the political will necessary for its success.
Commercial agreements
Globally, the Corona crisis caused the suspension of many industries, in light of the adoption of economic and trade policies on so-called production chains, as production inputs or parts spare parts could not be transferred, confusing the movement of labor and manufacturing, which will cause countries to focus on establishing full manufacturing workshops within its boundaries.
As for the World Trade Organization, you will find that its agreements are just ink on paper when it comes to tariff barriers, which many countries will use to protect their domestic industry, an approach that is not news.
The pillars of the European Union are expected to crack in the next stage for economic and trade reasons, resulting from the repercussions of the Corona crisis, especially after Britain’s exit from the Union, and expectations that other countries will soon follow the same path, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the path of free trade, and will be a reason for resorting to trade protection.
However, in the light of the current experience and the presence of interests of certain emerging countries, led by China, they may seek with certain countries to continue working on the principle of free trade, albeit incompletely, as this was the case under capitalist globalization.
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