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London – The Middle East and North Africa find themselves after years of unrest and instability on the threshold of a more sensitive phase, following the recent Arab normalization agreements with Israel, which will lead to the birth of new hubs regions which analysts say will last a long time.
In light of the fact that the United States continues to implement its strategy of military withdrawal from the region, particularly Iraq and northern Syria – if that has not changed, of course, with the new US President Joe Biden – Arab countries found themselves faced with new geostrategic equations which led them to choose a solution of peace with Israel.
The objectives and actions of some countries in the region are primarily aimed at deterring distant and direct threats from countries, led by Iran and Turkey, and non-state actors, such as Lebanese Hezbollah and extremist groups. In addition, Israel aims to preserve its old alliances while establishing new alliances. With the Gulf States.
Another era
The recent normalization of relations between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel is arguably the most important event to take place in the Middle East this year, and a strong indication that the Middle East is entering another era. regional policy.
However, for one reason or another, the signing of the “Abrahamic Accords” was not the seismic event as it should have been, and political analyst Michael Stephens, associate researcher at the Russian Center for intellectual studies, attributed this in a research article published by consultancy firm Arab Dagest, this in part to The Corona Pandemic and the US Presidential Election have both made headlines in recent months.
More importantly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not simply as central to regional and global security as it has been in recent years.
Stevens, a senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, believes that the outbreak of the so-called “Arab Spring” in 2011 and the entry of Syria, Yemen and Libya into civil wars led millions of Arabs, mostly young people, to fight for justice and rights in their country.
Here the issue has been mixed to the point of complexity, as many young Arabs have maintained peaceful protests to pressure the new governments formed after the overthrow of some regimes to respond to their demands, the wave of young people joining extremist organizations such as ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and others has emerged.
All of these problems are compounded by states in the region which have taken advantage of state fragility to pursue their own agendas, often at the direct expense of their regional rivals.
Turkey, Iran, Qatar and Israel have been particularly active in this dossier, each of these countries having sponsored armed agents and carried out military operations outside their borders, in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya.
These countries also used their media to pursue completely opposite agendas that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia were working on, as they stood in the face of the wave of political Islam and armed militias spreading through Yemen. and in Libya.
This caused divisions across the region, which led to the breaking of any supposed rule of consensus, be it Arab or Islamic unity.
Stevens believes that this breakdown in unity was apparently essential in enabling the UAE and Bahrain to openly increase their relations with Israel without fear of reprisals from other Arab countries.
Indeed, instead of suffering intense contempt from “brother” Arab countries, little effort has been made to reverse this process, especially after the Arab League voted against a proposal to condemn normalization. Ten years ago, such an idea was unimaginable. .
In the context of global power shifts in which the United States has started to withdraw from its dominant position in the Middle East, political analyst Stevens believes that the normalization of relations between some Arab countries and Israel should be seen as doing part of the rebalancing of powers in the region.
Previous models of political and military organization, such as the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, ceased to function, which became evident during the darker days of the Syrian war and during the height of the Syrian war. “Arab Spring” in 2011, which is dying.
As protests and conflict engulfed the region, many countries made their own calculations on how best to protect themselves from local instability, conflict and wider regional tensions.
Countries began to pursue narrow agendas, often at odds with neighboring states that were allies, leading to diplomatic divisions and chaotic competition, especially among Gulf states.
New axes emerge
Competition between many major players in the Arab region, all of whom have competing agendas, has made it impossible to understand the regional order.
However, with the onset of US spending cuts, which left power vacuums across the region, a new pattern began to emerge as it is now possible for three major alliances to emerge in the Middle East, which are the axis of resistance, the anti-axis forces and the axis of friendly agreement.
Stevens believes this is the New Arrangement for Middle East relations and conflict and will likely continue as such for years to come.
The axis of resistance rules Iran and includes elements of the Iraqi state and Syria and elements loyal to Iran in Lebanon, such as Hezbollah and the Amal movement.
These actors can be defined by their hostility towards Israel and their deep distrust of the West, as the Western allies are seen as strengthening the colonial powers to be resisted, and the majority of the actors in this group are linked to Shiite Islam.
Abraham’s Accords Indicate New Alliances Forming Quickly As Washington Continues Withdrawal From Middle East
As for the anti-Axis forces, they include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, and the three countries have close ties to the West and its defense institutions. He is fiercely hostile to Iran and its allies, and sees them as a cause of instability and discord.
These countries also carry a deep hatred for the political Islamist movements active in the region, seeing both Turkey and Qatar as rioters and insufficiently opposed to Iran, and aspiring to overthrow the existing order.
Turkey and Qatar are at the center of the friendship agreement with allies such as the Libyan government of national accord and Hamas in Gaza. These forces maintain close relations with Western capitals, regularly use Western defense equipment, and have a tolerant attitude towards Israel, albeit more favorable to the Palestinians.
Nevertheless, this alliance maintains a pragmatic, albeit timid, relationship with Iran, and has become fiercely opposed to the anti-Axis powers, and has obstructed their objectives in the region by military and financial means by supporting sympathetic actors. of political Islam.
Stevens says the emergence of these three alliances is the dream of neo-realists, and in the face of declining regional hegemony in the region, competition has started, with smaller regional players teaming up with larger players. and more powerful to create a balance of power.
Neorealists can argue that the formation of these power structures will lead to a form of stability in which the three axes cancel each other out, but the chance for one of these three axes to come to war with each other is unlikely, especially since each axis has forces that are missing from both axes. The two others.
The Axis of Resistance succeeded in effectively penetrating domestic politics in weak states, so that its influence could not be removed. Anti-Axis powers have access to the highest military technology and abundant financial resources, all supported by nuclear deterrence techniques.
Meanwhile, the Al Wefaq friendly coalition wields the immense weight and power of a large NATO military force, backed by Qatar’s immense wealth and financial resources.
The three axes will be in fierce competition in the weakest countries whose leaders cannot resist the temptation of arms and finance. This will certainly exacerbate the instability and ensure continued tension in the region for many years to come, but it will most likely ensure that no escalation occurs.
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