Oil … a product that "likes" wars and is engulfed by the fire of trade disputes

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Since the withdrawal of US President Donald Trump from the Iranian nuclear deal, oil prices are jumping fast, sometimes $ 1 or $ 2 a barrel overnight. When Houthi militia struck an Aramco oil container in recent days, Saudi Arabia suspended the use of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, prices rose and, in some transactions, earned about 1 dollar.

Economic growth because it affects commercial growth between countries and intertwines business activity and their future plans. Since the beginning of the trade dispute between America and China and Europe, oil prices fluctuate up and down, according to the calm of the trade war, the ferocity of war and the volume of duties on the goods. But oil prices are still falling as trade tension intensifies. Historically, during the war years, oil prices reached $ 3.6 a barrel for the years following the 1973 war, then surged when Arabs banned oil exports to the United States, reaching $ 12 a barrel a barrel. end of 1974.

Prices followed the end of the embargo and resumed only in 1979, when the pro-Western Shah regime collapsed and the Iranian revolution succeeded. Following the fall of the Shah regime, the oil market lost for the first time about 2 million barrels of Iranian oil, from $ 12 to $ 25

. This high price level leads to major imbalances in the major industrial economies.

In 1980, when the Iran-Iraq war broke out and oil production in Iran and Iraq dropped from 5.5 million barrels to just two million barrels, prices soared to $ 35.

The sharp rise in prices of one of the main threats of global economic growth, which was subsequently pressed for Western intervention to end the war between Baghdad and Tehran. After the end of the war, prices collapsed to less than $ 10.

The price collapse continued despite disagreements between OPEC members and Saudi Arabia abdicated the role of "weighted producer". Prices climbed to $ 30, but they collapsed during the emerging markets crisis in Asia.

It is not yet known how oil prices will respond to the current tension between Tehran and Washington on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Huthi militias on the other hand . But certainly, any threat to important waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and a significant rise in prices. It passes Bab al-Mandeb 4.8 million barrels a day of oil, while it crosses the Strait of Ormuz about 17 million barrels a day, according to data from the Energy Information United States Administration