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This article is written by Tariq Othman, Writer and Political Commentator, and the opinions below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CNN.
With the announcement of the results of the US presidential election, three errors began to appear in the perceptions of the next direction of the Joe Biden administration towards the Arab world.
1- The first mistake is to consider it as a continuation of what stopped at the end of the administration of Barack Obama. Indeed, much has happened in the past four years under President Donald Trump’s administration that has changed reality on issues of importance to the United States. And also because Joe Biden, even though he was vice president in Obama’s day, American history has taught us that a vice president, in any administration, is only a small part of the decision-making machine. And if he became president, we would always see new ideas and visions for him. The same will happen to Joe Biden.
2- The second mistake is that one can visualize the priorities and working methods of the Biden administration by reviewing the priorities and working methods of the Democratic Party in Arab affairs over the past decade. This is also a mistake, because Biden (with his long history) represents party tendencies far removed from those of Obama and even of Hillary Clinton and John Kerry (the foreign ministers of the two Obama administrations).
3- The third mistake is to portray the era of Donald Trump as a moment of cacophony in a piece of string music. This is because Trump, whatever his style, made decisions and implemented policies that were the expression of significant changes in the United States’ view of the Arab world, changes in American reality itself. even and changes on the international scene … And here the emphasis should be placed, because these changes are irreversible. In it, and understanding it is necessary because it is the master of America’s relations with the Arab world for the foreseeable future.
First: the changes in the US view of the Arab world:
With the declining cost of producing energy from stone and the rapid development of alternative energies in the United States, we are now at the end of the oil age as the world’s main energy that the West needs. to live. Indeed, over the past decade this has resulted in a gradual reduction in the importance of the Arab world to the United States.
There is also a decline in the importance of the Arab world as a danger … which means that the perception of violence used in the name of Islam as an imminent threat to the United States and its interests in the world, has shrunk a lot over the past two decades, and has become in the eyes of many American think tanks the same as different types of Contenable problems … and this has led to less American interest in the details of societal development in the Arab world.
Second, there are the changes in American reality.
The success of Donald Trump was the new episode in the rise of the Christian right in the United States as one of the strongest social currents, mainly because of its ability to mobilize. The defeat of Trump by Joe Biden did not change this reality. We will therefore see that the two major parties in the United States (Republican and Democratic) will try to influence this current in order to introduce it into the political center, but they will probably not try to thwart it. In fact, the Middle East-related issues that interest this current are among the easiest that both sides can offer to convince them. This means that the American view on certain points on issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not change significantly in the coming stage. We will see a change in language and styles, but not in substance or direction.
There is another change here, Arab, but influential in the American interior and its relations with the Arab world … which is that the Arab visions of the most influential in the United States have differed. Until not so long ago, the major Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt, had deep relationships and weight in dialogues with decision-making centers in Washington. But the picture is different now. Various countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and interest groups in other countries, such as Lebanon, have invested heavily (and to a large extent successfully) to broaden and deepen their relationship with the United States. . This has happened over the past decade when the influence of traditional institutions in Washington has declined in American decision-making, unlike an increase in the influence of various companies and groups. The bottom line is that there has been a shift in the focus of America’s view of the Arab world … which means that the U.S. perspective has shifted from the Eastern Mediterranean region (where the priorities are and traditional problems) in the Gulf, and not as a source of energy, but as where there are friends and financiers. Often times, the focus will remain on this region – again, not in terms of the future, but in terms of funding sources who wish to partner with interests in the United States. This is a type of relationship that is far from traditional decision-making institutions, but which continues to interest (whether for groups or important people).
Third, the changes on the international scene:
The middle of the world as it was known in the past (Europe and the Middle East) has become less important to the United States than Asia, where the power that is about to become great (China) and where The biggest and most important markets are found, and where the greatest financial savings in the world, and where it has potential conflicts of strategy.The US administration is far more important than anything that happens in the Middle East and in the Arab world. As a result: First: the United States will reduce what it spends (in terms of concentration, labor energy and political capital) in the Arab world … and second: it will try to take away from the region (which , in his vision, is an area of American influence) which will help him in his main struggle. Then in Asia. This not only reduces the importance of the region, but also the importance of some old American alliances and promises.
In addition to all this, there are other important changes: in the perception of influential Arab circles of the United States.
1- After two decades of continuous American wars in the Middle East, the United States appears to many as a giant on the move, and its movement is dangerous, but without clear objectives. Indeed, not all of the American wars in the region over the past two decades appear to have achieved major strategic goals for the United States. This vision (albeit questionable) has lost much of its prestige in the Middle East and weakened the old Arab perception of it, as a smart empire that seeks a process to define its goals.
2- Most Arab decision-making circles are now convinced that China has a reasonable opportunity (at least) to challenge US interests in a number of parts of the world. Russia was also able to revive a measure of the power of the Soviet Union, not as a superpower, but as a country with interests that could not be violated. All of this has diminished the image of the United States (since the 1980s) as the country with the solution and the connection in anything and everything. The result here is that these Arab circles some time ago started to lay eggs in different baskets.
All this does not mean that we are facing an American departure from the region, nor an Arab bet on the powers in competition with the United States. But these changes – on the American and Arab side – require a pause to reflect on the future of American relations with a number of countries and regions of the Arab world, for what is to come is undoubtedly different from what is to come. ‘it was decades or a few years ago.
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