Scientists warn of asteroid colliding with Earth after 48 years

Posted on Friday, October 30, 2020 11:54 PM

Al-Madina News: – A new scientific analysis has shown that there is a small chance that a huge asteroid will collide with the planet in 2068.

Scientists say they have measured, for the first time, how a phenomenon known as “Yarkovsky’s acceleration” affects the orbit of the asteroid, called “Apophis”, named after the ancient “god of chaos” Egyptian and orbiting the sun, according to a study presented at the 2020 Science Division hypothetical meeting. Planets in the American Astronomical Society, according to the American magazine “Newsweek”.

Apophis was first discovered by astronomers in June 2004, during observations made by the Kit Peck National Observatory in Arizona.

The asteroid “Apophis” resembles a peanut, with a diameter of over 1100 feet, which makes it close to the height of the famous “Empire State” building in New York, USA.

Since its discovery, scientists have been keeping a close eye on the asteroid, which they planned to bring several times closer to Earth over the next century and beyond.

Initially, the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth in 2029 or 2036 appeared to be 2.7%, but subsequent observations of the space rock’s path have revealed that there is currently no chance for that to happen, although Apophis will remain close enough to Earth on April 13, 2029, so that it can be seen with the naked eye, that it will approach our planet by an orbiting spacecraft .

Dave Thulin, author of the latest research from the Hawaiian Institute of Astronomy, says: “We have known for some time that the asteroid ‘Apophis’ colliding with Earth is not possible when it approaches in 2029, but observations made by the Subaru Telescope on Mauna Kea in Hawaii earlier this year revealed how the “Yarkovsky Effect” shifted the asteroid’s orbit about 550 feet per year away from its record track, this which is “sufficient to maintain the scenario of its collision with Earth in 2068”.

The “Yarkovsky effect” refers to a small but significant force that affects the orbits of asteroids and similar objects in space. When these objects are heated by sunlight, they end up releasing some of this energy, resulting in a small amount of thrust.

Over long periods of time, this effect could lead to major changes in the trajectory of these asteroids, and in the case of “Apophis”, it is likely to collide with Earth in 2068.

Thulin told Gizmodo: “With the ‘Yarkovsky effect’ in mind, the scenario of ‘Apophis’ colliding with Earth in 2068 is still ongoing, which means yes, a small amount, but not zero.

Scientists have indicated that if the asteroid struck Earth, it would cause an explosion equivalent to 1,200 million tonnes of tri-nitrotoluene, or about 80,000 of Hiroshima’s nuclear bomb.

But the researchers confirm that the chances of a collision with the asteroid “Apophis” Earth will likely change over time, coinciding with other sightings.