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FIFA's recommendation supported by President Gianni Infantino threatens to increase the number of teams participating in the World Cup in Qatar from 2022 to 48, and will require an increase in the number of host countries while the tension Diplomatic worsens in the Gulf region, analysts say.
According to the report, the offer, which is considered Infanteano, could help improve relations in the region by hosting Kuwait and Oman for matches of the competition, which will take place for the first time at Middle East and North Africa.
Analysts believe, however, that the outcome of such a move could be counterproductive: deepen regional division and leave Kuwait and Oman, as well as Qatar, vulnerable to new pressures from the region. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which broke off relations with Doha from early June 2017.
"There is a very real risk of extending the World Cup to Kuwait and Oman, which could make both countries vulnerable to the same regional pressure as Qatar since 2017," said Christian Olrichsen, researcher at the Rice University. "Kuwait and Oman have taken a particular approach in regional relations".
"The idea of a regional tournament that includes Kuwait and Oman without Saudi Arabia and the UAE is likely to cause great bitterness in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi," he said.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut ties with Qatar on June 5, 2017, accusing Doha of financing "terrorism". Doha denies these accusations and believes that it is hampered by the pursuit of an independent foreign policy that would be tantamount to attempting to change the regime.
The break-up of diplomatic relations included the imposition of economic and political boycotts by Saudi Arabia and its allies, and the impediment of citizens of neighboring countries to visit Qatar, in a crisis that does not seem to be happening in the future predictable.
Oman and Kuwait have taken a neutral stance in the crisis.
"Kuwait and Oman have problems with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates," said Andreas Craig, defense researcher at Kings College London, who previously worked in as a consultant to the Qatari government.
Relations between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have been strained over the management of oil fields between the two countries, while Muscat was accused of having authorized the shipment of Iranian weapons by its territory to Houthi rebels fighting a military alliance led by Riyadh in Yemen.
At the same time, Kuwait is playing a mediating role in the Gulf crisis while Oman has derived economic benefits from the conflict. Trade with Qatar has increased 240% since 2016, according to Doha statistics.
"The Gulf conflict will be exacerbated by the organization of the World Cup in three countries," Craig said, adding that FIFA's bid for Qatar with Kuwait and Oman would reinforce the sense of dividing the Gulf in two blocks opposed to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
"Politically, the extension of the World Cup does not make sense."
FIFA, at the conclusion of a meeting in Miami last week, had recommended an increase in the number of teams participating in the 2022 World Cup from 32 to 48. The federation approved the An increase over the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, but wishes to do so.
"We have reached a conclusion Yes, it is possible to go from 32 to 48 teams in the World Cup, provided that certain conditions are fulfilled," said Infanto at a press conference.
However, the final decision for the 2022 World Cup will be taken at a FIFA meeting in Paris in June, after the EU and Qatar will have established a list of countries likely to co-host.
The increase in participation in the World Cup will increase the number of games from 64 to 80, which means that the small states of the Gulf can not accommodate alone, which requires the establishment of games outside. from Qatar.
On the Doha line, which has been visited several times by Infantino, the organizers have not publicly rejected a World Cup with 48 teams, but have confirmed that they continue to prepare for the World Cup with the participation of 32 teams, in accordance with the basic agreement concluded between them and the International Federation when the country obtains the right to host in 2010.
In an inappropriate manner, he stressed that the increase in the number of teams could not be achieved without the consent of the host country.
"Qatar and FIFA continue to discuss the idea of hosting an expanded version of the FIFA World Cup, taking into account the usefulness of this idea and its implications for the football and for the tournament itself, "said the Higher Committee for Projects and Heritage in the wake of FIFA's recommendation last week. Qatar as host country, and any decision in this regard will be taken in consultation between the International Football Association and Qatar and with its consent.
"As host country, we are continuing our preparations to host the first edition of the FIFA World Cup in the Arab world, according to the current system of 32 teams." We will participate in all stages of the championship in Qatar in 2022, one of the most exclusive and dazzling competitions ".
According to James Dorsey of the S-Rajartnam University of Singapore International Studies, author of a book on Middle East football, the world's first popular game will not be enough to solve problems in the world. suspense in the Gulf region.
"The Gulf crisis will not be solved by playing football," he said.
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