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Rystad Energy Research said the floating of a delinquent container ship in the Suez Canal, one of the busiest trade routes in the world, could delay the delivery of around one million tonnes of LNG to Europe on 10 vessels if the suspension of navigation continues for two weeks. .
Rescue officials said the overdue vessel in the canal could take weeks to resolve. The channel is the main passage for European imports of LNG from the Middle East and some shipments from the Mediterranean to Asia.
Rystad said Qatar, one of the largest LNG producers, had shipped nearly 260 shipments to Europe in 2020 via the channel, according to Reuters.
It will take time to come back
“Even if the road opens in a week, there is a long line of cargo waiting to cross the canal. It will take some time to return to normal flow,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, president of gas markets and of electricity from Rystad.
There are three shipments due in early April that were waiting for Wednesday to cross the Mediterranean, and there are at least two shipments in the Arabian Sea en route to the Suez Canal.
Lucas Schmidt, analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said the LNG carrier “The Golar Tundra” loaded from the Idku terminal in Egypt on March 21 and was on its way to Asia.
At the southern end of the canal, the tanker “Rashid” waits to cross, carrying cargo from Qatar.
A spokesperson for the company “Inagas” for the operation of electricity transmission systems, said that the delivery of liquefied gas cargoes to seven regasification ports in Spain has not yet been affected.
He added: “No liquefied gas ships bound for Spain have been affected by the faulty ship in the Suez Canal, and no ships are expected to come from countries using this route in the next two weeks.”
During the winter season in the northern hemisphere, when demand for heating increases, congestion in the Panama Canal helps push spot prices for LNG in Asia to record levels as shipping companies are forced to resort to longer routes. longer and more expensive.
The spring season and the pipeline network could contain the price increase this time around.
Schmidt said rental costs were low, around $ 30,000 a day, but could rise if the unrest continues.
Reverse the path
Kepler Consulting said on Wednesday that shipping companies may have to reverse course and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, or wait in the Red Sea or the Mediterranean Sea while waiting for the offending vessel (Evergiven) to float.
Rystad said the trip from Suez to northwest Europe takes around nine days, at average speeds. The company added that the journey from Qatar to northwestern Europe takes around 17 days, but rerouting the route around the Cape of Good Hope can take more than 30 days.
“This could be an ideal opportunity for US manufacturers to place more orders in times of crisis for the transportation route,” said Torres Diaz.
The Japanese company “Choi Kisen”, owner of the giant container ship stranded in the Suez Canal, on Friday denied reports that it would seek to float the ship tomorrow night.
A spokesperson for the company said the re-float is underway, but the company is uncertain when those efforts will be successful.
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