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We seem to be facing the greatest threat that awaits us in half a century. Iran and Turkey are separated, developing in ways unprecedented in the region, and because of them, all countries in the region are threatened. The Turks in Libya pose a direct threat to Egypt, the most dangerous since the signing of the Camp David peace accord, which ended the possibility of war against it. Tunisia and Algeria are indirectly threatened by the mobilization of multinational Islamist armed groups in Tripoli. Sudan is also subject to infiltration by these groups, although it is the shortest border with Libya, about four hundred kilometers away.
Iran, its project of regional power gave it almost complete control over Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, and across Iraq now threatening Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the Emirates.
And both Turkish and Iranian forces, their armies and militias are now at war in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Somalia and Libya.
This new situation threatens everyone and requires a political rally to address it, and sends a clear message that there are 15 Arab countries threatened by Iranian and Turkish incursions, and are ready, as part of Arab action. collective, to form a coalition of defenders.
Despite the danger and the fires, collective action appears limited, perhaps because the picture seems rambling for public opinion in the region, as it appears to be sporadic and limited battles. For example, in Libya, everyone was surprised by the direct Turkish military intervention, which no one had thought of. The war in Libya was seen, before that, as an extension of the crisis for nine years. The Turkish military intervention and its Syrian militias became like the appearance of a snake, introduced fear and defensive instincts moved, and we saw a change in the positions of the countries there. For years, Tunisia and Algeria have not accommodated Turkey’s interference over the past period, considering it to be a Libyan-Libyan conflict, supported by multiple outside parties. Likewise, Egypt didn’t even think Erdogan’s forces would be at its borders. Today, the danger is serious and it is certainly targeted. Likewise, Algeria is not safe, knowing that Turkey will not hesitate to extend its influence inside the country if security imbalances occur there.
The truth is that Turkish bad intentions were written on the walls a long time ago, as they say, but no one was ready to believe them, as they seem “paranoia” and exaggerated because of the dispute with its president, Erdogan . Now no one is questioning that. Officially and publicly, Ankara has sent its forces and equipment, and thousands of militias that fought in Syria are fighting in Libya under the Turkish flag, and the parties have reached Sirte and the Oil Crescent. The doubts are no longer “paranoia” but a fact, and the story will not end here.
Some wonder why the Turks risk war in a remote area? Part of Turkey’s strategy is to have influence in the North African region, which is important for European security. Its presence gives it an influence on the countries of the European Union and obliges it to accept its demands. We have already seen how Erdogan, the Turkish president, used millions of Syrian refugees to impose his political and financial demands on the Europeans. This scenario will repeat itself when he controls Libya, and he blackmail the Europeans and threaten his neighbors, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Sudan.
As for his next battle in Yemen, why? In addition, it would give the Turks and their Qatari financier leverage in Washington and in order to weaken the other Gulf states.
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