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We have a big week ahead at the SEC with three massive showdowns that will radically define the conference landscape. The Alabama No.1 will travel to College Station to take on Texas A&M, although this game doesn’t carry the same kind of hype given that the two losses of Aggie – a pre-season Top 10 team. – have not lived up to their end of the bargain. Despite that, Kyle Field is sure to switch on Saturday night in hopes of destroying Crimson Tide’s dream season.
Meanwhile, No.2 Georgia will travel to the Plains to take on No.18 Auburn in the Deep South’s oldest rivalry. The Bulldogs have just demolished a previously undefeated Arkansas and could make another statement on the road against a Top 20 Tigers team. Auburn comes off a spectacular victory over LSU – his first Baton Rouge victory since 1999.
The remaining match between two AP Top 25-ranked teams takes place in Oxford, where No.17 Ole Miss will host No.13 Arkansas in a match that will establish who is the SEC’s second-best team. West… at least for now.
Let’s break down the hottest SEC stories and make choices straight and against the spread.
Aperitif: Bo Nix concentrates, has fun
The meme that has dominated Auburn’s Twitter since his spring game came to fruition on Saturday in one of the craziest performances in recent memory. Bo Nix’s first touchdown pass of the night was very Johnny Manziel, which was the precursor to the last two and more quarterbacks that saw the junior do magic with constant pressure on his face.
Georgian coach Kirby Smart knows his defense, while incredible, could be in full swing.
“His ability to extend the games is an elite,” Smart said at his press conference on Monday. “The game he played last week is basically all you need to show for the scout report. To do what he did against a really good SEC defense with a lot of great athletes, avoid and to escape and keep your eyes on the pitch – that puts a lot of pressure on a defense to be able to cover people for that long. “
What should Georgia do? The pressure in the middle with the Jordan Davis nose guard is a great start. Even if Davis cannot reach Nix, he is very likely to bail out quickly, which will give these talented edge defenders a good chance to reach Nix before he has a chance to work his Houdini magic.
Main course: the real problem with Texas A&M
The Aggies have entered this season with four holes to replace on their offensive line, and it’s clear that coach Jimbo Fisher can’t fix that. Yes, it’s the offensive line, not the fact that starting QB Haynes King got injured in Week 2 and Zach Calzada has been inconsistent since taking office.
The Aggies allowed 32 tackles for a loss, which is the worst score in the conference. They also gave up 12 sacks, which is tied for 12th in the SEC. The Aggies’ rushing offense ranks 10th in the conference with 3.85 yards per attempt, with Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane trying to run over the boulder. If these two superstars can’t get started, that should give you a strong indication that the Aggies’ offensive struggles are a much deeper problem.
If you can’t block, you can’t lead the football. If you can’t run the game, you’re putting your quarterback in an extremely untenable situation heading into the biggest game of the season. Fisher is supposed to be an offensive genius, but he’s anything but this year. Elite teams are able to recruit and develop players who are ready to step in when the stars leave. Recruitment hasn’t been a problem for Fisher, but development clearly is.
Dessert: Elimination game
The Razorbacks and Rebels suffered disappointing losses to SEC powers last week and will do so at Oxford on Saturday in what amounts to an elimination game in the SEC West title race. Yes, it’s easier to say for the rebels since they no longer have a tiebreaker against Alabama. But it’s been five crazy weeks, so you never know what’s really going to happen.
Who has the advantage? These two teams are poles apart from the way they want to operate. Arkansas is designed to handle football, speed up time, and limit big plays on defense. Ole coach Miss Lane Kiffin would prefer to lead a wide attack, use tempo and try to get at least a few saves defensively in an attempt to maximize her scoring opportunities.
Back in the days of college football, it was probably Ole Miss. Offense drives the bus in our sport these days, and Kiffin’s ability to impose his philosophy on his opponents is the main reason he will be training long term at Oxford. Maybe he should have done it after the first ride last week. Just a thought.
Choice of week 6
Directly: 45-10 | Against the spread: 23-22
No. 13 Arkansas to No. 17 Ole Miss
Latest odds:
Ole Miss Rebels -5.5
There’s no doubt that Kiffin is embarrassed by last week’s “Make Your Popcorn” quote, which should bring him back enough to start doing what he does best again: setting the tempo with the race and work from there. He got away with it last Saturday, but that won’t be the case this week against an Arkansas team that was wiped out on the ground last weekend. Kiffin picks up the tempo, throws the ball and the passing game will explode in the final three quarters. Choice: Ole Miss (-6)
Kudos to the Commodores on their thrilling victory over UConn last week, but good luck this week against a team from Florida who are angry after falling to Kentucky last weekend. The Commodores’ defense has been terrible so far, and Gators coach Dan Mullen will use the opportunity to open his offense in the hopes that it will ignite in stride. Picks: Florida (-38.5)
Latest odds:
Tennessee Volunteers -10.5
The Volunteers’ offense gained momentum last week against Missouri to such an extent that, let’s be honest, they could have scored 100 points. The wide receiver Velus Jones moving to the lunge more than in previous weeks has paid off, and that foundation will be used by Josh Heupel to continue to turn his offense into a juggernaut. The Gamecocks’ defense will not be able to contain the Thefts under 30 years, and the offensive will not be able to follow in a shootout. Picks: Tennessee (-10.5)
No. 2 Georgia to No. 18 Auburn
Latest odds:
Auburn Tigers +15.5
Georgia’s defense was shut down this year. After what Auburn quarterback Bo Nix did at LSU last week, chances are he’ll be able to work at least some magic, even when pressure from the Bulldogs takes him out of sight. That said, Georgia’s offense has shown its ability to turn things up no matter who takes the shots, and that will be enough for head coach Kirby Smart’s side for a 10-point victory. But since a two-touchdown win by the Dawgs won’t make any money, I’ll take the Tigers to stay relatively close. Choose Auburn (+14.5)
Latest odds:
Missouri Tigers -19
The Tigers were so torched by Tennessee that coach Eli Drinkwitz fired his coach from the defensive line. The coaching move won’t be the reason the Tigers sail, but the defensive line will get some credit. The Mean Green is 12th in the US Conference in yards per game at 4.74 and won’t have a chance to keep this one close to him. Pick: Missouri (-19)
LSU at Kentucky No.16
Latest odds:
Kentucky Wild Cats -3.5
The Wildcats’ offense was not great last week despite pulling off the upset against Florida. Their defense, however, was. LSU cannot run football, has even given up on trying and will not be able to exceed double digits this weekend. That said, as long as quarterback Will Levis doesn’t make any mistakes, Mark Stoops’ crew should be sailing. Pick: Kentucky (-3)
Alabama # 1 at Texas A&M
Latest odds:
Texas A&M Aggies +17.5
Few expected such a big gap before the start of the season. Now that the game is here and we have seen what these two teams are made of, it is clear that it is not big enough. Texas A&M can’t run the football that made his passing game as painful as a toothache. Alabama will mine that for four full quarters and win this one by at least 20. Picks: Alabama (-17.5)
What college football picks can you confidently make in Week 6, and which national title contender will be hit hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all from a proven computer model that has grossed nearly $ 3,400 in profits over the past five+ seasons – and find out.
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