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(AOF) – Credit insurer Euler Hermes is forecasting an oil price increase in 2018, averaging $ 75 per barrel in the fourth quarter, compared to an average of $ 61.6 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2017 (+21 , 8%). An increase directly influenced by geopolitical factors, including increased tensions in Syria and the Middle East, or the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran.
According to Euler Hermes, the soaring price of black gold will weigh on the margins of French companies by the end of 2018. According to Euler Hermes, they will contract by 0.4 point in 2018, from 32% in fourth quarter 2017 to 31.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Among the sectors most affected, the agri-food, which will see margins increase from 38.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 37.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018 (-1 point). Trade (wholesale and retail) will also not be spared, with margins expected to decline in the fourth quarter of 2018 by -1.1 point. Two sectors for which oil is widely used, and which will necessarily see their costs increase.
"For three years, in France, the margins of companies stagnate at 32%, still far from pre-crisis levels the hope of a return to this level was allowed, but the expected rise in the price of oil should increase the energy bill of French companies, and affect their profitability, "explained Stéphane Colliac, Economist in charge of France at Euler Hermes
However, Euler Hermes is confident for the next events, and plans a return of margins of French companies to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2019.
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